Sunday, October 01, 2006

It Begins

The regular season is mercifully over. It was a wild ride, that essentially was over a month ago. In the interim, we have been treated to a series of fireworks displays interwoven with more than a few duds. That's the nature of this sport, when the stakes of each game are reduced. The Red Sox did half the work for us with regard to making September an exhibition season, and quite pitifully left them sunk in third place with a payroll of over $125 million. Certainly, Theo Epstein has a long winter of reflection ahead of him that will end in his termination should he fail to make big improvements to the club for the 2007 campaign. Manny being Manny won't make that easy, nor will the possibility of Curt Schilling's retirement. Alas, that's for the Beantowners to contemplate as we get the ball rolling on the real season ahead.

Derek Jeter couldn't buck the odds on the season's final day and bowed to Joe Mauer in the race for the American League batting crown. It's quite a remarkable feat that a catcher could produce such sustained excellence at the plate, even as his body took a beating on defense. Jorge Posada has also seemed to get stronger in the waning days of the regular season, going against the odds of the catching profession in the post-"greenies" era. They should both be very proud of their respective seasons. Staying on the Mauer subject for a moment, he could win the MVP and there would be very little to argue about. He won the batting crown. He plays the toughest position in the sport. His team snuck out the division crown on the last day of the season and avoided heading to the Bronx. They get to stay at home and play host to the Oakland Athletics, who like the Tigers, can thank a late season see-saw of games which contributed to their status as road warriors to open the post-season.

The Yankees were lucky to avoid Minnesota. The general consensus among fans and pundits alike has been that Johan Santana in a 5 game series is the single biggest threat to a Yankees championship out there. We won't have to deal with that situation now, and instead get the reeling Tigers who have really sunk to Earth in the post-All Star break portion of the season. The photo at the top of this post is the current ESPN cover page for the MLB section. Check out what it really says, and tell me my caption isn't better. They also gave away the division by losing their last 5 games, including a sweep at the hands of the 62-100 Royals, who took them to extra innings twice in the last three games to doom the Wild Card Cats. The Tigers vs. Yankees series will be the focus of the remainder of this piece, as I look at the fortunes of both teams, compare notes on their seasons and 7 games against one another, and examine the matchups position by position. Buckle up. Here we go!!

The Tigers posted the following Pre/Post All-Star Break splits:

Pre All-Star
59-29 (.670)
1st place - 2 game lead over CWS, 11 game lead over Twins

5.17 runs per game
3.46 ERA (1st in MLB)
1.24 WHIP (1st in MLB)

Post All-Star
36-38 (.487)
2nd place - 1 game behind Twins

4.96 runs per game
4.29 ERA
1.41 WHIP

The Yankees posted the following Pre/Post All-Star Break splits:

Pre All-Star
50-36 (.581)
2nd place - 3 games behind Boston

5.57 runs per game
4.30 ERA
1.34 WHIP

Post All-Star
47-29 (.618)
1st place - 10 games ahead of Toronto, 11 ahead of Boston

5.93 runs per game
4.54 ERA
1.31 WHIP

At the All-Star Break the Yankees were 8 games behind Detroit for the best record in the AL. After the break, the Yankees were 10 games better, finishing 2 games ahead of the Tigers in the AL. The Yanks ERA has gone up slightly in that period, but slugging has jumped and runs per game also increased by almost half a run a contest. The Tigers, meanwhile, collapsed. The offense is a little weaker, but the main difference is that their otherworldly pitching couldn't keep it up. Let's look at the Pre and Post ERAs and WHIPs for their starters.

Kenny Rogers (3.85 and 1.19) (3.83 and 1.34)
Justin Verlander (3.01 and 1.17) (4.54 and 1.55)
Jeremy Bonderman (3.46 and 1.14) (4.87 and 1.49)
Nate Robertson (3.36 and 1.31) (4.44 and 1.31)
Zach Miner (2.57 and 1.21) (6.71 and 1.59)

What you see is smoke and mirrors being exposed. If there was ever a perfect example of "regression to the mean" it is the performances of Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson. Both of those guys posted numbers after the All-Star Break identical to their career numbers. Verlander and Miner are rookies, so you can expect some fluctuation as the season wears on. Rogers is the only guy that stayed steady throughout the year, in typical veteran form. Fortunately, we all know how he takes to Yankee Stadium! Let's look at the position by position matchups and size up the series ahead:

Catcher Jorge Posada vs. Ivan Rodriguez (advantage: Yankees)

I give the advantage to the Yankees, but we all know that Ivan Rodriguez is one of the finest catchers to ever play the game. There aren't too many seasons that Jorge would clearly get the nod here, but this is one of them. Posada leads I-Rod in OPS .867 to .769 and has actually thrown out more runners stealing this year as well. He has thrown out base stealers at a .373 clip to I-Rod's .510, however, as no one steals on I-Rod. Still, as far as his all around game goes, Posada gets the nod here.

First Base Gary Sheffield vs. Sean Casey (advantage: Yankees)

Sean Casey is a natural first basemen, unlike Gary Sheffield. That's about the only nice thing I have to say for Casey. He's been garbage for Detroit in his 53 game tenure with the Tigers. This has been a sore spot for the club, since Chris Shelton discovered Kryptonite and fell back to Earth. The acquisition of Casey was meant to shore up the position with a good stick, and it went bad. With Detroit, Sean Casey has produced a .245/.286/.364 line that has manager Jim Leyland withering away in the dugout faster than you can say, "Wild Card". Casey may bust out of it all of a sudden and get lighting hot, as his career .302/.368/.456 line would suggest he can do, but it's one thing to "have it in you" and another to let it out at the right moment.

Sheff is Sheff, and seems to have adjusted quickly to 1st. He may may some errors that cost us, which we have to be prepared for, but he is an MVP caliber talent with the bat and should easily dominate this matchup.

Second Base Robinson Cano vs. Placido Polanco (advantage: Yankees)

Polanco is a fair player. He's certainly an above average middle infielder, but he has absolutely no pop in his bat at all. He isn't fast either and posts a mediocre OBP for a leadoff man. Leyland will hit him leadoff and he'll run hot and cold. Good for us. Cano, on the other hand, was 3rd in the batting race and had more RBIs than any Major League ballplayer over the last 50-55 games of the season. He's an emerging superstar with Don Mattingly written all over him. No brainer here.

Shortstop Derek Jeter vs. Carlos Guillen (advantage: Push)

I want to give this one to Jeter. He is the better player, but Guillen is playing so well this year. Jeter finished with an astounding .344/.417/.483 line for an even .900 OPS, but Guillen was none to shabby himself at .320/.400/.519 for a .919 OPS. Guillen stole less bases than Jeter, but he also hit for more power. The Tigers would be nowhere on offense without Guillen, while Jeter helped to stem the tide of injuries that plagued the Bombers all year. Jeter gets the "clutch legend" bonus for his post-season heroics, but honestly this matchup is too close to call.

Third Base Alex Rodriguez vs. Brandon Inge (advantage: Please)

A-Rod has been roundly booed all season by Yankee fans, but he still produced a .290/.392/.523 line with 35 homers and 121 RBIs. He is searching for a big post-season to get everyone off his back and I think he's going to have it. He's a Hall of Fame lock, two-time MVP, and probably the best player in the American League playoffs. Inge is hitting .253/.313/.463 with 27 homers and 83 RBIs. Do I need to go on?

Left Field Hideki Matsui vs. Marcus Thames (advantage: Yankees)

Thames is a career AAA guy that I actually have always liked. He was hot for a while this season, posting some outlandish first half numbers. Like the rest of his teammates, he collapsed when his playing time was cut to make room for Delmon Young. Young was subsequently cut, but Thames never regained form. Matsui is a playoff master. He has a knack for all the big moments, and should be in mid-season form thanks to the time off he earned as a result of his horrific wrist injury. That injury was the best thing that ever happened to Godzilla as it gave him time to recover from the grueling and unnecessary 1700+ game streak he was on. He rehabbed like a champ and we will now reap the benefits of his dedication.

Center Field Johnny Damon vs. Curtis Granderson (advantage: Yankees)

Granderson is having a very respectable season for the Tigers in his first full-time action in the Bigs. He produced 31 doubles, 9 triples and 19 home runs. Those are numbers to be proud of. Johnny Damon produced 35 doubles, 5 triples, and 24 home runs. He also had 25 stolen bases. He also walked 67 times to 87 strikeouts. Granderson walked 66 times and struck out...wait for it.....174 times. He only stole 8 bases. Defensively, Granderson is a step up from weak-armed Damon, but I don't think his impact with the glove offsets Damon's superiority with the bat.

Right Field Bobby Abreu vs. Magglio Ordonez (advantage: Yankees)

It's hard to knock anything about Magglio Ordonez' contributions to the Tigers this year. He was a star with the White Sox, but is forgotten about these days in Detroit. His numbers this season returned to pre-injury form and he led the attack for the Tigers much of the year. His .827 OPS is a far cry from the days when he was topping .900 for the Pale Hose, but Detroit wouldn't be in the post-season without him. Abreu is a notch above Ordonez. He has a .926 OPS for the Yanks and is the perfect #3 hitter between Jeter and A-Rod. He also plays a pretty good right field, which was the main knock on him coming out of Philly. That and lack of power. For the record, Abreu's home run rate for Philly this year was a homer every 42.4 ABs. For New York, it's one every 29.9 ABs.

Designated Hitter Jason Giambi vs. Craig Monroe (advantage: Yankees)

We've rounded out the position players for both teams and Carlos Guillen's push with Jeter, was the only place Detroit is even with the Yanks. Even that may be a stretch in the end. Giambi is so clearly superior here, it's almost a waste of breath to go over the details. Here's the story:

Giambi = .253/.413/.558 with 37 homers, 110 walks, 106 Ks
Monroe = .255/.301/.482 with 28 homers, 38 walks, 126 Ks

Starting Pitchers
Chien Min Wang vs. Nate Robertson (advantage: Yankees)

The Tigers blew two things in their final game of the year. The division and the division series. Kenny Rogers is a good matchup against Wang, despite his troubles in Yankee Stadium over the years. By pitching him in extra innings, it pushed his start back to Game Three and set up Robertson against Wang. Robertson is 1-4 against the Yankees in his career, allowing the Bombers a .300 BAA and about 4.5 runs per 9. Wang, on the other hand is 3-0 against Detroit with a 2.52 ERA and a .233 BAA.

Mike Mussina vs. Justin Verlander (advantage: Yankees)

Moose has owned Detroit over the years. This year he threw a complete game shutout, basically. I say, "basically" because he gave up one unearned run, 6 hits, and a single walk. Career, he sports a 2.50 ERA in 200+ innings against the Tigers and a .224 BAA. Verlander has been bad in the waning months of the season and got lit up in his only start against New York this year. He allowed 6 runs, 4 walks, and 7 hits over 5 innings earlier in the year and doesn't figure to do much better in the heat of Yankee Stadium in October. He may prove me wrong, but it doesn't look good.

Randy Johnson vs. Kenny Rogers (advantage: Tigers)

At last!!! Their first advantage. Rogers doesn't have to pitch in Yankee Stadium and gets to face the 84 year old Johnson, who is currently using a walker to get around. It's not to say that RJ won't get some playoff magic, and the Yanks won't throw up a 7 run smackdown on him as we usually do (his career 6.45 ERA against NY proves this), but you wouldn't bet on it. One note of optimism for Yankee fans. If RJ can take the mound without much injury hangover, he has posted a 1.24 WHIP and .250 BAA this season, despite his 5.00 ERA. It's not as bad as it looks.

Jaret Wright vs. Jeremy Bonderman (advantage: Yankees)

Yup. Believe it or not, I'm giving this advantage to Jaret Wright. He has pitched well in his career against Detroit and won his only start this year against them. He went 6.1 allowing 6 hits, one walk, and 2 earned runs. Bonderman's start against the Yanks, 7.1 IP, 9 hits, 2 walks, 4 runs. His career ERA against New York is 5.06 with a .290 BAA. Wright against Detroit, 3.39 and .253 BAA.

Bruney, Proctor, and Farnsworth vs. Rodney, Zumaya, Walker (adv: Tigers)

The Tigers have a stellar pen. No two ways about it. The ERAs and BAAs are Rodney (3.52/.195), Zumaya (1.94/.187), Walker (2.81/.251). By contrast the trio of Bruney, Proctor, and Farnsworth put up the following numbers. Bruney (0.87/.189), Proctor (3.52/.232), and Farnsworth (4.36/.243). Bruney has only appeared in 20 games, but he is off the hook. Proctor and Farnsworth are always an adventure, but I have to say that Proctor is a lot more comfortable than Farnsy. The Tigers can save their season by using this pen at the first sign of trouble with the starters. It's their only hope.

Mariano Rivera vs. Todd Jones (advantage: again, please)

Jones is very good. He'll shut the door most of the time. That said, he has a 3.94 ERA and a .276 BAA this year. Career against NY, he has a 4.67 ERA. In his last appearance versus the Yankees he pitched 1.2 innings giving up 4 hits, a walk, a homer, and 5 runs. I love it. Mariano is sporting a 1.80 ERA this year and career versus Detroit he has a 0.80 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, and .135 BAA. If you see him, it's over. I use him for 2 innings if I have to.

I avoided talking about the benches and some of the peripheral pitchers. It's unnecessary. The Yankees will come out with an advantage in all those places, and they don't figure to be the difference in this series. The only intrigue is Melky and Bernie at the plate. How much do they get to hit? Will GOB get a big home run at any point? Will Melky make a late inning defensive play to save a game? My prediction: Yankees in 3.


farid said...

I have this very weird feeling that the Tigers are going to win the series (and this has nothing to do with my hating the Yankees since 1967). Although the Tigers have played poorly the second half of the season, they certainly have the talent to jump up and bit the Yanks in the butt. I could be wrong (probably am)...

Congrats to your team for another remarkable year -- it doesn't matter how many all-stars you have on the team, they have to play like all-stars to win.

As for my team (Nationals), they're on their way home after a pretty miserable year. But hey, at least we have an owner now.

Nice Blog

The Beltway Boys

mehmattski said...

Bruney, Proctor, and Farnsworth vs. Rodney, Zumaya, Walker (adv: Tigers)

The strongest thing in the Tigers' favor is probably the thing that will give them the biggest advantage in this series. The Yankees' style of offense is "wear em down" and if that doesn't result in runs, then the fallback of getting to the "soft underbelly" of middle relief doesn't really work against the Tigers. If Robertson and Verlander are on, we could be looking at a lot of agonizing 3-2, 1-0 games that could go either way. And that's why I would have rather played the Twins. Ugh.

singledd said...

A very thorough rundown Mike.
Offensively, my only issue is that both teams perform in the PS the way they have all year. Jetes, Cano and Posada all had better then average years, while Casey, Maggie and IRod have had below par years.

Lets hope this holds up.
Anybody wonder about the new slender IRod and PEDs?

I'm not quite as oppomistic as you, although I think we will win the series. I'm worried about our pitching, all the way around. Aside from the Wanger, if anybody else pitches like shit... how surprised can we be? Its happened more then once before, especially with RJ, JW and Farns.

Do you think it's possible that (if the Twins make it) we we see Santana for THREE games?

Anonymous said...

What the guy from yesnetwork wrote: Better have great scouting on Johan and the Twins. See how the Red Sox seem to always beat Johan and take it from there, you need to think like Johan to beat Johan, see where his weaknesses are.

With all the ingredients seemingly in place and a battle-tested roster at the ready, why am I picking the Twins over the Yanks in 7? Once again, Santana's a huge factor. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire will muster the cojones to start Santana on short rest in games 4 and 7, and Santana will reward the Twins with two wins, plus one performance good enough to get the Twins into the late innings tied or close.

So what makes the Twins the team to beat, aside from Johan the Great? The Minnesota offense had been the team's biggest weakness for the past several years. But two things happened this season that changed the complexion of the batting order. First, general manager Terry Ryan made one of the great unheralded moves of the offseason, acquiring second baseman Luis Castillo in a trade with the Florida Marlins for pitching prospects Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler. The Twins sorely needed an on-base source at the top of the lineup, as well as an effective player to fill the Luis Rivasified black hole that had been the Twins' second-base job for the past few years. Castillo's .356 OBP was down a bit from the past three seasons, but still marked a solid addition to the offense. That Castillo will make a reasonable $10.75 million combined in 2006 and 2007 (once the Twins pick up his $5.75 million option for next season) only cements the quality of the acquisition.

Second, Minnesota's M & M boys emerged as true superstars this season. Justin Morneau has garnered a lot of MVP attention, and for good reason. He's been a force in the middle of the lineup all season, breaking the long-standing Twins 30-homer curse and shaking off a disappointing .239 AVG/.304 OBP/.437 SLG effort last season to post a line of .321/.376/.560, ranking among the league leaders in multiple offensive categories. Morneau wasn't even the best hitter — or most worthy MVP candidate — on his own team. That honor goes to Joe Mauer, who became the first American League catcher ever to win the batting title, belting out a stellar .347/.430/.506 line while playing the most demanding position on the diamond. Throw in a breakout season by Michael Cuddyer and unexpected contributions by slap hitters such as Nick Punto and Jason Bartlett and the Twins' offense is miles beyond where it once was.

Meanwhile, the Twins' bullpen is the best in baseball. By now even casual fans have probably heard of Joe Nathan, the overpowering closer acquired from the Giants along with Francisco Liriano and No. 2 playoff starter Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski — the Herschel Walker debacle of baseball trades. But Minnesota has also gotten huge performances out of side-winding rookie Pat Neshek, rejuvenated and rotund lefty Dennys Reyes and Juan Rincon, the big righty setup man who was busted for performance-enhancing drug use but appears no worse for wear. Neither Santana on short rest nor any of the Yankees' starters are good bets to pitch into the eighth inning. That brings relievers not named Rivera or Nathan into the equation, giving the Twins a big edge, one that will neutralize the Yankees' offensive advantage.

Within the Yankees-Twins series, expect the Twins' offense to surprise. Morneau and Mauer match up perfectly against the Yankees' righty combo of Wang and Mussina. Santana will claim two games by himself, the pen will win another, and Brad Radke will reach back for one more brilliant start in the last LCS of his career.

Diamond Mind ran 100 simulations to make its own predictions. DMB's Tippett noted that 100 simulations would help smooth out any unusual results that might emerge if only a few runs were done, thus revealing the team that truly looks best, at least on paper. My predictions and DMB's were made completely independently of each other. The result? Turns out they picked all three series exactly the way I did, with the Twins eventually knocking off the Yankees to claim the pennant.

That kind of consensus scares me more than a little. Still, here's what Diamond Mind found.

In the Oakland-Minnesota division series, the Twins won 75 times, the A's 25 times. The most common result was Minnesota in 5 (33 times). In the Detroit-New York division series, the Yankees won 67 times, the Tigers 33 times. The most common result was a New York series win in 4.

Overall, Minnesota won the ALCS 43 times, followed by New York with 36, Detroit 14 and Oakland 7. When the Twins faced the Yankees, Minnesota won 27 times, New York 26. Minnesota over New York in a hotly-contested seven-game series was the most common occurrence.

Man and machine may agree, but the games remain to be played. Stay tuned for more analysis as the playoffs progress.

Chi-Yu said...

Hello Mike,
Sorry I took so long to reply. I sent my e-mail to you three times but all failed. So, I want to post my words here.

"There is not any more happiness than you agree on me. At the same time, I want to thank you again."

"I am confident that a lot of guy would love to read topics from COH."

"Since I was in high school, we had started professional baseball games in Taiwan. I played baseball with my neighbors and schoolmates as a pitcher then, but not any more now. I am 34 now, watching games and reading columns is all I can do about baseball."

Here is one photo of mime during high-school . Hope you will like it as a keepsave.

Anonymous said...

I took tomorrow morning (the game has been broadcast here at 8 am, Wednesday)off from my teaching schedule so that I could watch Game one at 8am.

I am very nervous but still am rooting for a Yankee win!

Go Yankees! Go Wang!!

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