Sunday, October 01, 2006

The Batting Title

So Jeter steps up and delivers a final day chance to go for the batting title. With Mauer idle, the Captain went 3-3 to raise his average to .345 and sits .00157 behind the Twins young star. I took it upon myself to calculate the scenarios for both hitters that may unfold tomorrow. The range goes from 0-1 all the way to 5-5 for both players, and I'll give you the rundown of what Jeter needs to hit in the event that Mauer produces a particular result tomorrow. Let's try it out:

If Mauer doesn't play, Jeter can only win the crown by going 2-2 or collecting 3 hits.

Mauer 0-1 = Jeter 1-1, or any combination of 2+ hits except 2-5
Mauer 0-2 = Jeter 1-1, 1-2, or 2+ hits
Mauer 0-3 = Jeter 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, or 2+ hits
Mauer 0-4 = Jeter 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, or 2+ hits
Mauer 0-5 = Jeter 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, or 1+ hits

Mauer 1-1 = Jeter 3-3 or 4+ hits
Mauer 1-2 = Jeter 3-3, 3-4, or 4+ hits
Mauer 1-3 = Jeter 2-2, 2-3, or 3+ hits
Mauer 1-4 = Jeter 1-1, 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 or 3+ hits
Mauer 1-5 = Jeter 1-1, 1-2 or 2+ hits

Mauer 2-2 = Jeter 4-4 or 5-5
Mauer 2-3 = Jeter 4-4, 4-5, or 5-5
Mauer 2-4 = Jeter 3-3 or 4+ hits
Mauer 2-5 = Jeter 3-3, 3-4, or 4+ hits

Mauer 3-3 = Jeter has no chance
Mauer 3-4 = Jeter 5-5 or 5-6
Mauer 3-5 = Jeter 4-4 or 5+ hits

Mauer 4 or 5 hits = Jeter has no chance

Realistically, Mauer can close the door on the batting title with a multi-hit game. Jeter has to be outstanding if Mauer is 1-3 or better. The best chance Derek has is if Mauer takes an 0-fer, goes 1-4, or 1-5. The only thing Jeter has going for him is Mauer's 2-12 (.167) career average against Chicago pitcher Javier Vazquez. Jeter, in contrast, is 1-3 career against Blue Jays starter Dustin McGowan. Small sample sizes, but we gotta cling to something, right?

Twins have to win, and Detroit has to lose in order for us to avoid Johan Santana in the ALDS. Break out the Twins and Royals pom-poms people. See you tomorrow. Go Yanks! Kill 'em Cap'n.


singledd said...

Hey Mike..
You called the Tigers blowing it... although losing 5 in a row at home, with 3 of them against KC, is a choke of historic proportions.

Jete's was hot hot hot, right up until the day he passed Mauer. It was shorted lived, as he had a pedestrian week= thereafter... which cost him the title.

Clinching early also hurt Jetes. The whole team relaxed, while Mauer and the Twins had something more to fight for. Motivation is key.

I feel GREAT about the post-season... how about you?

singledd said...

that should be:
he had a pedestrian week+ thereafter

Mike Plugh said...

I feel good about it too. I have some thoughts that I'll put up tonight about the Tigers series, but I think we can run straight to the WS if our lineup does what it should have in 2004. Had we just won 1 game against the Red Sox.....alas.

One game against the Sox was the only thing between us and #27. None of the teams in the post-season this year are as good as the 2004 Bostonites. If we get decent pitching and our crazy lineup can smack the #2, 3, and 4 pitchers of other ballclubs around. Good night.

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