Back in the Saddle

My parents were in Japan for 10 days to meet their new grandson. He's their first, and we made sure to spend a lot of quality time together. My posting took a bit of a hit, with the exception of my bizarre take on the Carl Pavano storyline, and I managed to miss a few ST games while otherwise occupied. Just a few hours ago, I put the parents back on the Shinkansen and I'm at the laptop ready to rock and roll for 2007. This post probably marks the beginning of a ridiculously busy season of writing ahead.

It was a year ago that I started this blog, give or take a week or two. At that time, March was the domain of the World Baseball Classic and my writing was heavily geared towards coverage of that event. It spawned the beginning of both Matsuzaka Watch and Uehara Watch, both of which merit their own blogs these days. Choosing to cover various topics related to Japanese baseball has led me in an interesting direction with my writing. I have met a lot of interesting and influential people for having begun work in this niche, and 2007 brings even more important opportunities. I'll have more on those in the very near future.

This season, there will be very little related to Japanese baseball here at COH. I have built other outlets for that part of my work. The Yankees take front and center with Spring Training in full swing, and plenty to talk about with regard to the roster and the surrounding competition in the AL East. It's easy to get whipped up over the roster spots being decided in these pivotal days of early March, but what may escape Yankee fans is the relative stability that exists on our team this year. Let's look briefly at what I mean.

CF Johnny Damon
SS Derek Jeter
RF Bobby Abreu
3B Alex Rodriguez
DH Jason Giambi
C Jorge Posada
LF Hideki Matsui
2B Robinson Cano
1B Doug Mientkiewicz

Only Mientkiewicz is new to the lineup. While Abreu slides in for Sheffield, that was the case for enough of last season that it's hardly a big shift to start this year. He's also such a good fit with the team that it's almost impossible to remember that he only joined at the deadline in July. Let's look at the bench:

OF Melky Cabrera
1B Josh Phelps/Andy Phillips
IF Miguel Cairo
BUC Todd Pratt

Unless Torre and Cashman decide to take an additional outfielder, there probably won't be much deviation from this group. Phelps replaces Bernie for all intents and purposes, but the quadruple 1B platoon that is potentially set up with this is problematic. I would rather drop Andy Phillips and bring along Brett Gardner as a base stealer. Cairo is that guy now, and generally does a fine job, but Gardner is better and could be the difference in an important game a la Dave Roberts. All of that is nitpicking though. The bench is a weak point, but with the roster of juggernauts that we throw out there it shouldn't matter. In the case of injury to a key player in the infield, we'll have problems, but nothing that a creative GM with tons of cash can't fix. The changes from last season are largely superficial, with the lone exception being the huge gaping hole in Bernie's locker. That hole is only large because of the legend that is Bernie Baseball. The level of play should either be a push or improve in the end.

The starting rotation looks different, but there are some reasons to feel familiar with what's there.

Mike Mussina
Andy Pettitte
Chien Min Wang
Kei Igawa
Carl Pavano

It's important to consider a bunch of minor leaguers in this mix as well. Karstens, Rasner, Hughes, Sanchez, Ohlendorf, and Clippard are all names that could appear for the Yankees under the right circumstances. Pettitte and Igawa are in red letters above, but only Igawa is really new to the team. No one can look at Andy Pettitte and think that he's somehow new to the team. It's almost as though he was on an extended leave of absence. Pavano looks new because he's been invisible for the most part since joining the team, but we know him and look forward to at least a league average performance while he's afforded a spot in the rotation. Even adding Clemens to the team won't feel all that new. It almost seems like we have a HOF rotation with great fallback options when we consider adding Clemens and Hughes sometime down the road.

The bullpen is the area of most uncertainty, but let's think about what we are likely to see come Opening Day:

Chris Britton/Brian Bruney
Mike Myers
Ron Villone
Kyle Farnsworth
Scott Proctor
Jose Vizcaino
Mariano Rivera

In the end, what you see is a big change involving a starting 1Bman, one bench position, a back up catcher, a new guy in the rotation, a new set up man, and potentially one long reliever. One new pitcher is actually an old one. All the core players are the same. The rotation is more or less the same dynamic. The pen is hardly altered. The club won 97 games last year, and should at least hold even in 2007. If injuries can be avoided to any of the key roster guys, and we can add either Clemens or Hughes later (if not both) we should improve on that total. 100+ wins looks like a reasonable outcome if the chips fall right. Considering that we had the best record in the sport last season, 100+ wins this year should merit the same prediction. I'll get into that more later in Spring Training when I do my AL East preview, but I think this post may illustrate just how stable and defined our team is already.

The things to discuss for the remainder of the Spring are such fine tuning that it's hardly earth shattering news one way or the other. The only things that exist to throw the season into turmoil for the Yankees are injuries (God forbid), more A-Rod crap, more Pavano drama, any Clemens news, any word from Bernie, or UFOs landing in Tampa. Barring any of those things, it should be dull as a butter knife until Opening Day. Just the way I like it as a fan, no matter how it affects the quality of my blogging. Stay tuned for more Yankees related posts on an almost daily basis from here on out, and some very exciting business related to my work with Japanese baseball in a week or so. See you tomorrow. Go Yanks.