Monday, November 27, 2006

Just Manny Being.....Traded

So things are heating up with trade talks around Manny Ramirez. ESPN reports that Ramirez may be traded as soon as this week, and the suitors for his services are the Giants, Padres, and Dodgers. Things with the Orioles and Rangers are lukewarm at best and dying quickly by all accounts. The deal that the Red Sox seem inclined to take will involve prospects, much like the Yankees' deal involving Sheffield. It seems that the Sox would be getting young talent in exchange for a huge money contract, made to look reasonable by the current market, and the best hitter in the AL over the last 10 years.

This is absolute music to my ears. The Sox will be bringing in J.D. Drew at around $14 million a season to play his typical 120 games, when they could deal with Manny Being Manny at $17 million. You can't replace a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer with J.D. Drew. The impact of this situation may sink the Sox when it's all said and done. The only legit deal that they should consider, that would bring back equal value, is a deal that nabs Miguel Tejada. He would fill the void at SS with an MVP caliber bat, and replace Manny in the heart of the order. That doesn't look like it's going to happen, so barring any huge moves this winter it looks like Boston may have Drew protecting Ortiz in the lineup in 2007.

Just to cap things off, let's look at Manny's career numbers. I'll also throw in J.D. Drew and you'll see the impact right away.

Ramirez Career
.314/.411/.600
157 OPS+
9.10 RC/27
Games per Season: 142 (not including 1st two partial seasons)

Drew Career
.286/.393/.512
133 OPS+
7.25 RC/27
Games per Season: 118 (not including 1st partial season)

Manny Ramirez has career highs of .351/.457/.697 (all 2000 Cleveland), and a 190 OPS+ (2002 Boston). Drew has a fine line of .323/.436/.613 (a mixture of 2002 and 2004), and a best OPS+ of 162 (2001, Cardinals). The problem is not that Drew is a poor player. He clearly has tremendous ability in him. The problem is that he isn't Manny Ramirez, he will cost nearly as much, and he plays an average of 118 games a year (25-30 less than Manny).

The Sox are playing a +/- game of Manny vs. Drew and multiple prospects, but that game seems to be a zero sum game at best, and a flop at worst. If Drew is hurt, and the prospects never emerge as anything more than league average, it will be one of the most costly moves in Boston's long history. Over his 14 seasons, Manny Ramirez has averaged 24 Win Shares a year. That includes the two partial seasons at the start of his career. J.D. Drew has produced 16.5 Win Shares over his 9 seasons, including his 1st partial year. The last 3 seasons have seen Manny produce 29, 34, and 27 WS, respectively. Drew has produced 34, 13, and 21. It's all about health. A healthy Drew can produce 34 Win Shares, as is seen in 2004 with the Braves. An injured Drew is capable of throwing up a 13. Keep an eye on this situation Yankee fans.

11 comments:

Argus said...

Blue Jays on verge of re-signing catcher Zaun
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2678002





The Toronto Blue Jays were on the verge of re-signing free agent catcher Gregg Zaun on Monday evening, just a couple of days after it appeared that talks between Zaun and the team had broken off.

The Blue Jays reached an agreement in principle with catcher Rod Barajas, but it was not immediately clear if the Barajas deal fell apart.

Zaun had also drawn some interest from the Red Sox and Yankees, but in remaining with the Blue Jays, he will probably get most of the team's playing time. If he had gone to Boston or to New York, he would have been a backup catcher.

I blamed Cashman for moving slowly signing Zaun. What do you think Yankees next plan are? Bengie Molina or resigning Fasano?

Jamie said...

What's the deal with bloggers posting entire stories in other blogs? I don't understand the logic. I mean, I've read that article before, and all you need to do is just give me the link.

I don't need the entire story. It discredits the person who wrote it and doesn't provide the website with the hit it should get from the story itself.

I doubt you took the time to ask ESPN - even though I dislike them for the most part - for the rights to post basically the entire article here....

Jon Williams said...

Hey Mike,

You should consider adding a feed for your site. Personally I'm one of those people that read hundreds of sites a day and its so much easier with a feed reader. Just a thought. Love your stuff.

Mike Plugh said...

Thanks Jon. I'll work on getting a feed together. Also thinking about an occasional podcast, but that may come later.

Thanks.
Mike.

Anonymous said...

Totally agree. I honestly believe Manny is the best all-around hitter in all of baseball that is not named Pujols. It will be interesting to see what happens to Ortiz without Manny's protection in the lineup.

Mike said...

If the Seibu Lions agree to pay part of his salary, will this be allowed by the commissioners office? Was a precedent set before with Ichiro, having the Japanese team pay a portion of his salary? If this is so, let's say the Seibu Lions pay 21 million of Matsuzaka's salary and the Red Sox pony up 24 million for a 3 year, 15 mil per year deal. That would mean other teams that might have bid 31 million were now outbid by the Red Sox but the Red Sox ended up sending less to the Lions. This would seem to make a sham of the bidding process. However if allowed, the Red Sox might have made a very shrewd move.

Anonymous said...

FWIW, there already is a 'Blogger' feed for COH - mine updates every day in a newsreader I use on my Mac at work..

- pistolpete

Charlie said...

Send A Letter To Selig


If the Red Sox are renegotiating the posting fee, I feel they have violated the integrity of the system. It was a blind, binding bid. Once accepted, it should not be renogitiated. Mind you, I'm not worried about the player at this point. I really dont think he's going to make THAT much difference. HOWEVER, teams that bid in good faith got blown out of the water by the Red Sox bid. The Sox KNEW it would take 100M to sign him when they bid 51M. Obviously, they had no intention of signing him for that much, and probably intended to pull this crap all along. I dont usually get involved in this kind of rhetoric. And again, I dont care if they get him or not. But this is clearly fraudulent. And if the Lions agree, they are just as guilty as the Sox. Here is the letter I just wrote. Write one of your own.

Dear Commissioner:

I am hearing rumors that the Red Sox have negotiated a deal to lower the posting fee for the right to negotiate with Matsuzuki. If this is true, it is a travesty that must be addressed. The outrageous bid by the Sox was bad enough. But it clearly was not offered in good faith, nor was it accepted in good faith, if it is reduced after the fact. The Sox KNEW what he wanted for a contract. They blocked other teams from a legitimate bid, all the time knowing they would pull something like this. Please understand, I dont care WHO gets him. But if teams are to follow the posting rules, they should follow them all the way. To allow the fee to change is patently unfair to all other teams who bid.

Please give this matter your closest scrutiny. The commissioner has the right to overturn the transaction if it is determined to be fraudulent. The posting system is the result of a basic working agreement between MLB and Japan

Anne said...

Left-hander Hideki Okajima said Saturday he has received offers from major league teams and is leaning toward accepting one of them.
Okajima, 30, has been a reliever lately after spending time early in his career as a starter. He had a 2.14 ERA and a 63/14 K/BB ratio in 54 2/3 innings last season and a 4.75 ERA with a 56/19 K/BB ratio in 53 innings in 2005. He might be a pretty good lefty specialist or a little something more in the majors. The Red Sox, White Sox, Tigers, Indians and Phillies are some of the teams looking for a left-handed reliever source -rotoworld



I was listening to 1050 espnradio and Buster Olney That Redsox are in negotiations with Okajima and a former teammate of Hideki Matsui. I wonder why Rotoworld forgot to mentioned being the Yankees are interested signing him?

rabid stan said...

Yankees win the rights to Kei Igawa with a $25 million bid.

Didn't you say he'd be a bargain under the radar, Mike? $25 million was what Matsuzaka was supposed to fetch.

/rabid

I stand by everything I said about the Sox regarding Matsuzaka, and turn it over on the Yanks twice. This is either stupid or there's something fishy going on.

Screw you Cashman.

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