Thursday, November 29, 2007

More BS Pete

I'm not in the business of hating on PeteAbe, because generally I like his blog, but there comes a time every so often that I think he's thick and needs calling out. So far, the Santana situation has been a lowlite for the LoHud Yankees blog. The last post I put up will give a clue to my feelings about his commentary, but today features another round:

"Lester is better and has more of a track record than Ian Kennedy and Crisp is a proven Major League player. Melky Cabrera is a better hitter and far cheaper, however. Phil Hughes and Cabrera trumps Lester and Crisp, I think. Then it’s a question of what other prospects to include."

Lester is a better player than Ian Kennedy. Hmmmm.....Drafted out of high school, Lester has a career 3.33 minor league ERA with about a 2.5 to 1 K/BB ratio. In 26 Major League starts he has a 4.68 ERA and about a 1.5 to 1 K/BB. He has a history of cancer. Ian Kennedy is a guy with NCAA experience, a career minor league ERA of 1.87, better than a 3 to 1 K/BB, almost 10 K/9. In his short MLB experience he posted a 1.89 ERA over 19 innings. He had a back problem last season. Certainly the track record with Lester is longer, but it's also much less impressive. I don't believe for one second that Jon Lester is better than Kennedy. At best it's a push. In fact, if I were the Twins I'd ask for Buchholz as a starting point. Lester isn't enough unless Ellsbury is in the mix, and by all accounts he's not.

Melky is a better hitter than Coco Crisp? Crisp is a career 94 OPS+ with a batting line of .280/.329/.409 over 4+ seasons. Melky is a career 90 OPS+, granted in limited action, with a batting line of .275/.340/.388 career. If you want to hypothesize that Melky WILL be a better player than Coco when he matures as a pro, I might buy it, but does anyone believe that his upside is substantially better than Coco Crisp? Plus, Melky is a very good defensive player, but he doesn't sniff Coco Crisp for range factor.

This has nothing to do with the deal itself, but we have to think before our fingers dance around the keyboard with wild guesstimates about what kind of value players have. Lester and Coco Crisp is an insult. Kennedy and Melky is an insult unless you include Horne or Jackson. It's going to take Phil Hughes to get Johan Santana, and shouldn't it? If the Yankees were on the other end, wouldn't they demand Hughes? I would.