Matsui to Stay

Apologies to my good friends at BP, but I thought I'd cut and paste Hideki Matsui's numbers here to make a few points about the current rumors. If you'll notice below, Matsui's career batting line is .295/.371/.485 and in 2007, a year that was supposedly a disappointment, he put up basically those same numbers. How does a guy go from being a clutch, True Yankee, fan favorite to being an almost universally regarded has been? I would argue that people have lost their minds. In order to make this argument without being labeled a Japanese player PR man, which I have been from time to time in the past, I want to use these numbers and others to show why this possible trade is a bad idea.

Actual Batting Statistics

YEAR    G    AB    H  2B  3B  HR    R  RBI   SB   CS   SO   BB   GDP   BA   OBA    SLG
2003  163   623  179  42   1  16   82  106    2    2   86   63    25  .287  .353  .435
2004  162   584  174  34   2  31  109  108    3    0  103   88    11  .298  .390  .522
2005  162   629  192  45   3  23  108  116    2    2   78   63    16  .305  .367  .496
2006   50   172   52   9   0   8   32   29    1    0   23   27     7  .302  .393  .494
2007  143   547  156  28   4  25  100  103    4    2   73   73     9  .285  .367  .488

.     680  2555  753 158  10 103  431  462   12    6  363  314    68  .295  .371  .485

Advanced Batting Statistics

                           <---------ADJUSTED FOR SEASON----->
YEAR  OUT  UEQR    EQA  EQR BRAR BRAA  FRAR FRAA PRAR  WARP1
2003  452    92   .271   86   29    9    1  -12    0    3.3
2004  415   116   .306  107   55   36   -1  -12    0    5.9
2005  447   109   .293  104   47   26    9   -3    0    6.2
2006  122    32   .296   29   14    8    7    5    0    2.3
2007  403    98   .286   88   37   19   -1  -10    0    4.0

.     1839   446   .290  415  181   98   15  -32    0   21.7

Matsui's career EQA is a very respectable .290, and in 2007 he posted a 32.4 VORP and a 4.0 WARP1. Prior to the wrist injury, Matsui had a 43.8 VORP in 2005 and a 6.2 WARP1. If the level of play that you expect from Matsui is somewhere in between the two seasons, you'd have to get a pitcher like the 2007 A.J. Burnett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, or Andy Pettitte back in a deal. Sure Noah Lowry and Tim Lincecum were both of comparable value to Matsui last seasonby that system, but the Giants are not going to give up Lincecum in this deal and Lowry simply has no place on this team. Where does he fit? Which of our young guys is going to stay in AAA for Lowry?

The BP list of most comparable players features 1996's Paul O'Neill as it's best match. 1999's Larry Walker and Dave Justice are also on the list, as is 1986's Keith Hernandez. Matsui has more value as a DH for us right now than anything we can realistically expect to get back. He is a perfect guy for the situation he's in. In the context of the Yankees offense, he'll drive in 100 and score 100, while hitting .300 on the year. He's a solid and consistent performer that comes at a fairly economical price in 2008. Certainly, he's a better all around player than Damon, who has put up a .265 - .280 EQA for the Yankees and had a 3.5 WARP1 last year. His defense is actually worse than Matsui's in many respects and he is ill suited to the leadoff role that we ask him to play. Jeter should be up there.

If there's a guy that needs to be shipped out to cut salary and bring back a bullpen arm, it's Mike Mussina. In the NL he can still have an effective 2008, and the Phillies would probably love to have him. It just works. What can we get back from Philly, considering they have dealt with us in the past (Abreu/Lidle)? Maybe we can figure out how to get a guy like James Happ from the Phillies for Moose. Throw in a little money to offset the salary, and make a deal.