Saturday, April 08, 2006

Four the Record

After noting the trend that the Yankees exhibited in games in which they did not tally 5 runs, I decided to torture myself by going back through the entire Torre era to look at the Yankee record. Here's what I found

The Yankees are a combined 743-145 (.837) in those games in which they score more than 5 runs in the regular season. They are 236-488 (.326) in those games in which they put up 4 or fewer runs. In the postseason the Yankees are 42-10 (.808) in 5+ run scoring affairs, and 32-31 (.508) in 4- run contests. The playoffs bring out the best in the Yankee pitching, it seems.

I thought I might shed some light on the troubles recent teams have had in dealing with the close ballgames they play in the playoffs, but the numbers in the 6 years the Yankees reached the Series are statistically identical to those years they failed to make the Fall Classic. We're talking a few hundredths of a percentage point in all cases. The only difference we see is the Series teams posted an .875 winning percentage in 5+ run games, and a .560 in 4- games. The teams that failed to make the Series posted .583 and .308 respectively. They just didn't play as well as their opponents.

Although the start to this season is distressing from an emotional standpoint, it seems we should take heart that the percentages probably are going to stack up exactly as they have over the 10 year sample I examined.

The Yankees will win about 74 games decided by 5 or more runs, and lose 14 or 15. They will win 24 games when they muster 4 or fewer, and drop 49.

It's the run they make in the playoffs that counts. That Aaron Boone moment, so to speak.


Matchosan said...

But in the last 4 or five seasons when the yankees score four or fewer runs it is usually against the Halos, and in a loss.

2 down. Sweep to go.

Matchosan said...

Well you pin striper's took the third game, really took it, and avoided the butt slap with the broom.

See you in the Bronx next...whoa...August...wOwzza. Thought we had more games against each other.

Weel good luck with the sweet blog, and keep on writing.

Mike Plugh said...

Thanks matchosan.

Phew. We needed another 5+ run ballgame to get the win, but I'll take it. Meanwhile, Boston keeps putting up wins in the close ones.....

August is a long time to wait for another series, isn't it?

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