The Giambi Saga

On this day when Andy Pettitte stands up to face the music, I'm choosing to look at another prominent Yankee known to have abused PEDs. Pettitte, for his part, said what he had to say and was extremely humble in doing do. Giambi cooperated with multiple investigations over the years and has been one of the only players involved in this juiced era to have fessed up to his "crimes", at least behind closed doors.

Pettitte will go out a beloved son of the Yankees farm system, a champion, and an ultimately flawed human being like the rest of us. Some of the shine is off the legend of Andy Pettitte, but it's hard to forget what the team did from 1996-2001, prior to his admitted use of HGH. Giambi, on the other hand, came to the Yankees after the magic was over and has done little to bring glory back to the Bronx. He's had his moments in pinstripes and we've made the playoffs every year that he's been in our uniform, but the question has to be asked of the post 2001 Yankees, "What was this group made of?"

One of the first thing you have to discuss is the payroll of the 2002-2008 Yankees and the idea that big name, high ticket players would bring another set of rings to the franchise. It hasn't and a lot of money has been thrown away in the process. Of course, Brian Cashman is trying to right the ship on this front and will make a huge step in that direction this season with the young pitchers. The bigger step will be taken next season when some big contracts come off the books. Jason Giambi is at the center of that and really is the symbol for the 2002-2008 version of the Bronx Bombers. Lots of offense, lots of wins, no titles.

It's not fair to lay any of this on Giambi. For his part, he's produced a lot of positive results with his bat and when you look at his total body of work for the Yankees, he's only missed significant time in two seasons, 2004 and 2007. For the Yankees, Giambi has produced a batting line of .263/.410/.525 and has averaged 38 home runs per 162 games. In some seasons, those would be close to MVP numbers. If he'd managed to hold any of his prolific batting average ratios in New York, he'd probably have one in our uniform. From 2002-2007 Jason Giambi hit the 16th most home runs in all of baseball despite missing half of two seasons. He's 7th in OBP and 25th in SLG over the same time. He actually has been hit by more pitches than everyone in the sport over that stretch, other than David Eckstein, Jason Kendall, and Craig Biggio.

A few things have worked against Jason Giambi since his arrival. His slow start certainly set off his time as a Yankee on the wrong note, and despite that "True Yankee" moment when he beat Minnesota in extra innings, in the rain, with that grand slam, somehow I think we're still waiting for something. He helped make our big Pedro Martinez comeback in the playoffs, so it's hard to say he never produced in a big game. Still....we're waiting. The steroids issue is a big part of the cloud hanging over Giambi's time in pinstripes, but I'm not sure that it's the morality of his drug use that bothers most Yankee fans. I think it's an unspoken sense that we paid HUGE money for a product that didn't work as well as we thought it would. The breakdown of Giambi's batting average makes that perception very real. Getting on base at a 41% clip and clubbing 35+ home runs every year is impressive, but it's easy for the eyes to process that to the brain if a big chunk of that OBP comes from raking. He hasn't.

We're still waiting for a .320 batting average to go along with all the walks and homers. If he got a hit once every three times up and mixed in some walks, we'd think a lot more highly of him somehow. The perception, I think, is that the drug abuse robbed him of his ability to hit for average. At least, that's my perception. I remember the problems he had with his eyes and his back and wonder how they affected his ability to make consistent contact. We all know that he's patient and when he connects it's going to travel a long way, but even though it goes against my good sense, I think he needed to get a big single or double more often to make us feel like we got our money's worth.

I've had a love/hate relationship with Giambi in his time here. I don't like him all that much. He isn't a classic Yankee. He's a perfect Oakland Athletic to me. That's just an aesthetic sense. When he came to us, and took all that money, I expected him to do what A-Rod has done in the uniform. Even A-Rod's "down years" have matched Giambi's better seasons, but he plays the field and has put up some historic Yankee seasons winning 2 MVPs. Giambi has had success, but it hasn't been of the historic variety. Maybe that's not fair, but when you win an MVP and take $100 million, a lot is expected in the Bronx spotlight. Funny how Giambi has rarely been booed, while A-Rod has had trouble. I guess Giambi is seen as authentic, even authentically flawed, while A-Rod seems a big fake or managed in comparison. I don't get it. I've wanted to boo Giambi 100s more times than I ever thought to boo A-Rod.

What do we expect for 2008? I imagine he should give us the 130-140 games with 35 homers and a ton of walks. I'd guess that he'll sit more this year with the DH role being filled by Matsui and Damon on occasion. He'll carry the team in stretches, but none of it will matter unless a title is brought to the Bronx in October. Whatever the end to the season, however, I think the "Giambi era" will always leave a bad taste in our collective mouths as a period of wasted opportunities. It's not really fair to pin it on Jason, but I'll be honest, I can't wait until he's gone.

I'll cheer for him this season, but when it's all said and done, title or no, I will breathe a sigh of relief when that big contract is off the books and some of the star power that was brought in during the 2002-2008 period is gone. The same can be said of Mike Mussina in many respects. Pavano will be out. Choices will be made on Abreu and Farnsworth and others. 2009 will see Matsui and Damon's contracts expire. We'll see something new, good or bad, but I think I'll feel a lot better with a group of guys less "well known" and less well paid than I have with the Sheffield's and Giambi's and Randy Johnson's of the world. Now, if only we could get back Nick Johnson I'd feel better. Go Yankees!!!

Yu Ready for Darvish?

Rumors have been floated about a Yu Darvish posting to the Major Leagues after the 2008 season for a few months now. I declined to comment on this situation until I saw it develop or die in the Japanese press and I'm prepared to weigh in as Spring Training breaks.

The rumors indicated that the Yankees have expressed interest in acquiring Darvish via the posting system next season and are reportedly willing to blow away the posting fee that was given to Seibu for Matsuzaka. The Yankees have been scouting the young right-hander since his rookie season (2005) and have relied, apparently, on information from Kazuyuki Shirai who has been the infield coach and the team's #2 in command under Trey Hillman. Shirai participated in a coaching exchange with the Yankees just following his retirement from the NPB in 1997. There is some information out there that Shirai, thanks to his excellent relationship with Hillman, is doing some scouting work for the Royals these days, but I haven't been able to confirm that at this point. He was thought to be a candidate to replace Hillman, but did not in the end.

At this point, the rumors which floated out there in January have not been expounded on anywhere legitimate. The initial reports came via the sports wire in Japan and were printed on Yahoo! Japan's sports page and in the Sponichi and Nikkan Sports daily sports rags. The quality of information we are dealing with is dubious, but hardly a shocker. The main issue with this type of rumor is the feasibility of a move. I can't address anything from an "in-the-know" standpoint, as I think no one in the world beyond the front office of the Fighters and Darvish himself are able to determine the likelihood of a posting move next year. I can, however, deliver my perspective on the situation from the standpoint of a person who stands between Japan and the US and has made a minor career out of covering Japan for Baseball Prospectus.

Some reports have attributed quotes to Darvish about his lack of interest in playing in the United States but I have never seen or read anything to that effect, other than unattributed quotes. Even the Wikipedia entry on Darvish fails to attribute a source to that comment. I have always operated under the assumption that he did make a comment about his lack of interest in the Majors simply to be conservative in my analysis of his possible future in the States. I've paid very careful attention to Darvish for 3 years now and make it a point to stay on top of everything Darvish. You might know my work at Darvish Watch, although I gave up posting there mid-season last year to concentrate on graduate work.

Darvish has opened up to the possibility of playing in the Majors by my best analysis of his character and posture. His confidence has grown exponentially in the last year and a half and he has dominated the NPB as well as the international circuit. If there were a WBC this year, he'd be Japan's man on the mound charged with repeating. There's nothing Darvish has not done as a professional in Japan, save win an Olympic gold medal. He has a championship, a Sawamura Award, a Konami Cup, and an Asian Championship with the national team. He posted a 1.82 ERA in 2007 and was untouchable. At this point, his only weakness is early trouble with his command, which hurt him in a number of 1st innings last season.

I wrote the following for Baseball Prospectus in 2007, edited to avoid repetition:

Yu Darvish, RHP, Nippon Ham Fighters
Height: 6'5" Weight: 187 Bats: Right Throws: Right Age: 20

Darvish is a 20-year-old stick of dynamite. Born to an Iranian father and a Japanese mother, he has achieved a kind of matinee idol status in Japan for his good looks and big-game ability. Like many Japanese pitchers, he was thrown into the mix at the age of 18, and was asked to start winning right away. His first half-season was an up and down affair, with some very tough moments interspersed by flashes of brilliance.

Manager Trey Hillman has been quoted as saying that Darvish could one day be better than Daisuke Matsuzaka, and is already more advanced at 20 than Daisuke was at that time in his career.

In addition to that information, you might be interesting in knowing that he throws in the mid-to-high 90s with ease and has a wicked slider, change, and sometimes works a cutter. His size projects to much better long term success than Daisuke Matsuzaka. He has room to fill out his upper body as he is still only 22-years old, but his lower body is relatively thick and generates power at a Major League level. Darvish married a beautiful actress/talent this season after the couple learned that she was pregnant with their first child. Saeko Darvish has done work on the variety television circuit, some dramatic work, and some of the standard sexy bikini videos that young idols are generally obligated to do in Japan.

The speculation about Darvish and the Yankees has been described in terms of financial interest by the Japanese rumor mill, mainly identifying the 2009 open of the new Yankee Stadium and the simultaneous expiration of Hideki Matsui's contract. The press have focused on the Yankees' desire to maintain a strong Japanese base and see Darvish as the logical target to provide continuity. The speculation also surrounds Darvish and the 2009 season because the Olympics will provide an international forum for the young man to showcase his abilities as Matsuzaka did in the WBC. The price for Darvish may never be higher than it is now according to some, although I tend to think a good showing at the 2009 WBC is a perfect spot to elevate value thanks to the higher level of competition as compared to the amateurish Olympics.

If I were a betting man, and sometimes I am, I would tend to bet against Darvish being posted after this season. I think it would be far more likely that he would be posted after the 2009 season, or not at all. The factors that could prove me wrong are obvious. Money talks, for one. If the Yankees are aggressively floating dollars out there in the rumor mill that exceed Matsuzaka's fee, it would be foolhardy for Nippon Ham to turn their backs completely. The meat packing company is financially strong, but is hardly in a position to turn down $100 million. (That number is simply pulled out of my ass for the purpose of illustrating a point.)

The final question to deal with is the feasibility of a big money posting by the Yankees or someone else. In my opinion, if the Red Sox $50+ million is a benchmark for Darvish, I can't see why a substantially higher number isn't reasonable for Darvish. Why? Darvish is better than Matsuzaka was at 22. He's got projectable size at 6'5" and a good frame to continue developing. He has a complete arsenal and can pitch 9 innings every time out without batting an eyelash. He is the only player on Earth capable of being a bigger marketing boon than Ichiro in Japan. He's truly a rock star. At 23, Darvish would be under a team's control until his 29th birthday provided he could get a deal of that length from the winner of his posting fee. He hasn't even hit his prime yet.

I'll be following Darvish full time at Darvish Watch this season, so make sure to stop by there and take in each start. I will be living in Japan full time again in late May and will do my best to live blog each of his starts from that point forward. In the meantime, stop by and take a look at the style of the blog and read up on what I've done so far. I'll be updating the remainder of the 2007 season in some form very soon.

Fresh for 2008, Booooooy!!!!

The offseason has been tough. I had so much grad work to do that I hardly felt inspired to write about why the team should or shouldn't resign Doug Mientkiewicz, or why there should be personal beer taps on the backs of every seat at the new stadium. Priorities were made and posting was sparse.

Pitchers and catchers are now back in action in Tampa and the former Legends Field, now known as George M. Steinbrenner Field. There will be a lot to talk about in the coming weeks and Canyon of Heroes is dedicated to getting back into action. In the days and weeks to come, I will be cranking up the action here and doing some housework at my various Japanese baseball blogs as well. They have suffered the most.

I JUST updated the template here to the "New" blogger, so I'll be working on adding tags to each post, including the work I've done over the last 2+ years. Things look similar under the new arrangement, but there are a few differences as well. I eliminated some of the links from the "old" COH, including many of the Yankee blogs out there. If you are one of those blogs, and you plan to be active this season, give me a shout and I'll put you back up there. If you notice anything out of whack with the updated template, send that along as well.

The plan is to write about Yu Darvish and the Yankees, Giambi and his role this season, and any Spring Training news that may be on the tongues and blogs in Yankeeland. Come back. Spread the word that I'm back in action, and go Yankees!!!

An Omen!!

NEW YORK BEATS BOSTON!!!!!!!!!! Next stop Spring Training!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Johan Santana Goes to Shea

USA Today is reporting, as are Mike and the Mad Dog, that Johan Santana has been traded to the New York Mets in exchange for outfield prospect Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey. Huh?

Yes, Bill Smith pulled the trigger on this deal but wouldn't take Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and a middle tier prospect of some kind. He should lose his job if the Mets guys don't pan out to be well above league average performers. If you pass up on the offers the Yankees and Red Sox had on the table and let them eventually disintegrate, and then subtle for a package of players that don't pan out to be anything more than league average at best and below league average at worst, you should be fired.

You have a few chances to make your mark as a GM. Cashman's record is spotty with the Pavanos of the world to his name, but he has also done remarkable things with the minor league system and so on. Theo has his share of clunkers too, but he has 2 World Series titles in his tenure and some bold moves that have panned out fairly well. Neither GM has been in the position to deal a 1st ballot Hall of Famer, which is where the lower payroll GMs make their mark. Smith had a marquee moment as a new player on the scene and he blew it big time. He may have blown it to the tune of Scott Kazmir is the Mets guys end up as a pile of junk. His hands were tied, so he gets a little wiggle room, but when you realize that the Twins could have had Phil Hughes had they been less pig-headed, there's a place for Smith alongside Steve Phillips.

I hope the Mets finalize the deal. Santana fits there like a glove and he stays out of our hair. The Mets need this kind of moment to erase the collapse of 2007. Good luck Omar. Don't let down the Shea faithful.

Hakuho Champion

This may seem strange to many of you, but sumo is one of the finest sports on the planet. If you've never watched, it might look like a bunch of fat guys smashing against each other for 5-10 seconds before one of them takes an unfortunate fall. You'd wonder how this behemoth was going to right himself like a turtle who's rolled onto the back of his shell. Spending the better part of the last 4 years of my life in Japan, I've become a fan(atic) and really appreciate the subtlety of the technique and the raw power of these athletes. They look fat, but the muscle mass beneath the flab would put an offensive lineman to shame. The very fact that these guys can master balance at their size is mind-blowing.

Anyway, the Hatsubasho (New Year's Tournament) has just come to an amazing conclusion. Each tournie is 15 days. The rikishi (wrestlers) face one another according to rankings at the start, and the daily matchups are adjusted according to record as the proceedings go on. There are currently two Yokozuna (Grand Champions), both of whom are Mongolians. On one side there is Asashoryu, who is something like the Mike Tyson of sumo. He doesn't play by the rules in his civilian life and some have accused him of buying wins in the ring. Whatever his transgressions, he is a freight train who puts the fear of God into his opponents. He is a force of nature. On the other hand, there is my favorite rikishi of all time, Hakuho. His father was a Grand Champion in Mongolia and he has risen to the top at a very young age thanks to a commitment to excellence and a variety of techniques. He has strength and balance, but he is the complete package, a chess player in the ring. He is Ali.

These two guys ended up tied on the final day of the tournament and the buzz in the arena was palpable. I present to you via the magic of YouTube the final match. Only in the offseason......Hakuho is on the left and Asashoryu is on the right....

Yogi "Can"berra

Browsing my favorite blogs, I stumbled across the news that the Yankees have signed two Australian teenagers in recent days. Ever the curious follower of the prospect follies, I did a little digging and came up with a couple of articles and photos for you.

Nathan Aron - IF/OF (16) 6'1", 185










Aron is from Dingley, Victoria and has played for the U14 and U16 clubs in his region. He plays for the same team (Cheltenham) as Australian hero Travis Blackley, who has spent limited time in the Majors with both Seattle and San Francisco. Aron projects as a decent power hitter based largely on size. The only picture I could dig up on the young man is from 2004, when he was 13 years old. He is at the far left and looks rather unimpressive. A current photo would help out a lot.

Kyle Perkins - C (16)

Perkins signed a 7-year deal with the Yankees after being scouted in an U-18 event. The Australians have seen a lot of potential in Perkins and tabbed him eventually for the national team. Interesting to see if he ever pans out and plays in the WBC or at the Olympics. I don't expect much in terms of MLB service (for either of these guys), but the organization is committed to finding talent everywhere and using all its resources to go global. This was equally true of the signing of the two Chinese kids, although I would tend to believe the chances of the two Aussies making the Show have to be exponentially better. I don't have the height and weight details on Perkins, but this photo is current.

Tom Cruise Knows More About Advanced Metrics than You

At least he appears to know a lot more than me. All this shit about SP and PTSP, and KSW, and LRH.....he must be onto some new shit. PECOTA and WARP....poooo....blllrrbbbb



Seriously, get this lunatic some help please. Watch this whole thing and translate it into English. I beg of you.

I'm Back and So is Cano

It's been a long time. Thanks for your patience. My trip to Japan went awry when I fell ill with a horrible, evil virus that can only be attributed to the Red Sox. I'm back in NYC, hard at work, and ready to head down the stretch until pitchers and catchers report in 20 days!

I'll get to Yu Darvish and the Yankees in good time, but the news that Robinson Cano is back in the fold (according to the NY Post) is a smart, smart move. It's hard to believe that the young man was only making $400k+ last season, but that's all now moot. 4-years at a total of $30 million averages out to a little more than $7 million per, by my math. Chase Utley just got 7-years at $85 million, which averages out to $12 million per. Brian Roberts is on a contract that pays him $7 million per. Jeff Kent averages about $10 million per on his current deal.

This is good business for the Yankees. By buying out his arbitration years, the Yankees are being fair with a player that stands to be the best or second best 2Bman in the sport for the foreseeable future. That means he can work with them on his FA years with a reasonable attitude. What he stands to become is worth the investment. If he ends up as the top 2Bman (at least in the AL) over the next 4 seasons, they have a bargain. I still stand on my prediction of a year ago that Cano could eventually hit as well as Don Mattingly, minus a little of the home run power.

For the record, and I'll harp on this a lot before the season starts, my perfect Yankee batting order for the upcoming season would look like this:

Abreu
Jeter
Cano
A-Rod
Posada
Matsui
Duncan
Damon
Melky

Cano deserves to hit in the 3-hole at this point, and Abreu (like it or not) should be at the top of the order with a .400 OBP and the ability to steal 20-25 bases. Damon is a shadow of his former self and would do better with less at bats. With more at bats, I expect Cano to do the 100-100 thing with 50 doubles and 20-25 homers. Let's make it happen Joe G.

LoHudness

Hello COH fans and newcomers. You might be checking in during your normal browsing routine, or maybe this is your first time by the Canyon. Either way, welcome.

This will be short as I`m holed up in an internet cafe in rural Akita, Japan right now as a blizzard rages outside. I`ll be here another week and have little access to post. Here`s what`s in store over the next couple of weeks here at COH (in addition to any breaking Yankees news):

* The Yankees and Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish
* My thoughts on Spring Training
* Jason Giambi v.2008
* Yankee Memories: Joe Girardi

and more. Stay Tuned. Thanks for dropping by. Make COH a favorite.
Mike.

Blockbuster Post

Y'know how Hollywood waits until X-mas to put out really big hits destined for Oscar contention? The same goes for baseball blogging. Flotsam Media just mocked up a great new stat called GRIT (General Requirements of Intangible Talent) and we all have some thanking to do. This is a new metric that will revolutionize mockery everywhere, and I'm tempted to petition Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus to add it to their data sets. (I'm dead serious).

Go take a look at this brilliant piece of work and thank the Gods for blogs (Steven A. Smith, Bill Conlin, and Murray Chass be damned).

Hat tip to the eternally excellent FJM.

Santana to Boston....maybe

More stupid Johan talk. Apparently, the Globe is reporting that the Red Sox will score Santana if the Yankees don't include Ian Kennedy in their deal, and soon. I laugh.

If Minnesota wants to take the Red Sox flotsam for Santana, congratulations. More power to you in Fenway. I think the Sox have finally crossed over into Steinbrenner territory and while there's no guarantee that the highest payroll in the sport is going to win you the Series, they are adopting our former ways. Great. They are the same as us. Makes for a more interesting rivalry.

I think it would be great to have Santana, but giving up more than we've offered is beyond insane. You don't need the best pitcher in the sport to win it all, as much as it helps. Having 3 top quality starters at bargain basement prices is more valuable to me and is more conducive to dynasty building, where Santana would be a win now deal.

Here's hoping that he's a Red Sox and that we beat his ass repeatedly.

60 Minutes

I missed the live airing of A-Rod on 60 Minutes last night, but I just finished watching the clips available at CBS.com and I've come away with a few impressions.

First, A-Rod is very very controlled. This isn't new. We all know that he is extraordinarily image conscious. He was deliberate in his answers and tried to remain focused throughout the interview.

Second, he denied using PEDs of any kind. I don't believe he did, but it's irrelevant at this point. We'll never know who did and who didn't, so any successful player is open to scrutiny. I choose to believe him. The disingenuous remarks, to me, were his denial of direct knowledge of any player's use of PEDs. He was very "blinky" throughout his answer, and while I don't expect him to sell anyone out or admit to being a silent enabler of drug abuse, I find it hard to believe that ANY player alive didn't know what was going on, or see something suspicious. These guys spend way too much time together.

Third, Katie Couric has to be the worst interviewer in the history of television. She looks and sounds like someone on mood enhancing drugs and she was completely overmatched in that interview. She clearly has no functional knowledge of baseball or sports in general and sounded like a dimwit trying to ask A-Rod about his swing. I'm biased because I think she's one of the most egregious examples of news as entertainment there is, and that's one of my pet causes. She's vapid, cotton candy and has no place in a serious conversation of any kind. I picture her sitting on the floor with a chimpanzee playing marbles and cooing about how well the chimp uses his opposable thumbs. Giggle.

I wish someone like Charlie Rose had conducted the interview. Couldn't they at least get Ed Bradley?

Pettitte Speaks

Andy Pettitte made a statement today regarding his use of HGH. Here is the good majority of the AP article that is important to understanding this as a human issue.

"Andy Pettitte used human growth hormone to recover from an elbow injury in 2002, the "If what I did was an error in judgment on my part, I apologize," Pettitte said Saturday in a statement released by his agent. "I accept responsibility for those two days."

"In 2002 I was injured. I had heard that human growth hormone could promote faster healing for my elbow," Pettitte said in the statement released to The Associated Press by agent Randy Hendricks.

"I felt an obligation to get back to my team as soon as possible. For this reason, and only this reason, for two days I tried human growth hormone. Though it was not against baseball rules, I was not comfortable with what I was doing, so I stopped.

"This is it -- two days out of my life; two days out of my entire career, when I was injured and on the disabled list," he said. "I wasn't looking for an edge. I was looking to heal."

Pettitte was not linked to steroids in the report, and he emphasized he never had never used them.

"I have the utmost respect for baseball and have always tried to live my life in a way that would be honorable," he said. "If I have let down people that care about me, I am sorry, but I hope that you will listen to me carefully and understand that two days of perhaps bad judgment should not ruin a lifetime of hard work and dedication.

"I have tried to do things the right way my entire life, and, again, ask that you put those two days in the proper context. People that know me will know that what I say is true," he said.

I think this set of remarks shows that mistakes can be made that aren't related to overt cheating. Not everyone involved in this report was looking to affect on field performance or transform themselves into a hulking home run hitter or fireballing ace. It doesn't excuse Pettitte for violating the ethics of the sport, if not the law, but it does explain a lot. If we believe the connection of Roger Clemens to the allegations in the report, that's a different story. Clemens prolonged his career by years and earned tens of millions of dollars in doing so. He stayed on top of his form well beyond the shelf life of his body, due to prolonged cycles of drugs....again, if true.

If any one of us, under pressure to perform our work or schooling despite physical weariness or mental exhaustion, pop Adderall or load up on speed does that make us a pariah? If we do it once or twice and realize the error of our ways, does that mean we should be lumped in with serial abusers and cocaine addicts? There has to be some perspective beyond the whitewashing of Mitchell Report names as a clan of monsters. We, as fans, have to think more critically than many of us are to see the complexity of the issue and the variety of issues at stake. The media, for its part, should treat its news with similar sensitivity.

It makes me sick to see the Red Sox blogs loading up on this. Even FJM, for all its good work, is guilty of broadly condemning every name in the report without ever stopping to consider how accurate it is, or at what level each name is involved. Boston Dirt Dogs has an entertaining bent on the Sox and Yankees most of the time. They rib, and poke, and rub us the wrong way, but they generally stay above the filth of the fray. Not this time. They are almost reveling in the news that several Yankees were involved, without ever ONCE acknowledging that Mitchell is a Red Sox employee and did very little to specifically investigate the Red Sox. There may or may not be a manifestation of the apparent conflict of interest in the report, but regardless it is out there and is a part of this public discourse. Failing to acknowledge it while simultaneously taking liberties in the portrayal of Yankees in their gleeful treatment of the topic is classless.

I think it's unfortunate that Andy did what he did. I believe his version of the story, and I think there is room to put his story in perspective. He was honest about his involvement and owned up to the wrongness of his participation in this mess. It doesn't erase the past, but it does put it in perspective. Giambi for his part has taken a similar path, although never coming right out and spilling the beans. The difference between Pettitte and Giambi, and the reason that I still like Pettitte where I can't stand Giambi is that Andy made a short term mistake and reversed course. Giambi fueled an entire career and made 100s of millions of dollars by doping. He is bearing the effects of his doping today and is virtually useless to the team as a result.

The bashing of Pettitte and the public shame will never disappear as long as he shall live. It's over for Andy Pettitte. He's as big a stain on the landscape of baseball as Barry Bonds. That's due to the naming of names without appropriate context. Now that the context is here, it doesn't matter because the mythology is already established and the horse is out of the barn. If only the general public were a little smarter and a little better at thinking critically. That's too much too ask though. As long as people spend more time watching SportsCenter than they do reading books, that's the culture we have created. Alas.

Lost in the Shuffle

Lost in the Mitchell Shuffle was the news that the Rangers released Akinori Otsuka. I believe they are on the verge of signing former Rakuten closer Kazuo Fukumori, so they drop one Japanese reliever in favor of another. The Yankees might want to think about Otsuka as a short term bullpen guy. He'll be 36 before the start of next season, and he's coming off an injury plagued 2007, but he's a gifted pitcher with a successful past.

Career, between San Diego and Texas, Otsuka posted a 2.44 ERA in 232 innings of relief. He saved 32 games for Texas in 2006 and sports a G/F ratio of 1.70 over 4 seasons. His strikeout rate has plummeted in recent years, but his G/F has simultaneously risen to almost 2.00 at the same time. He has held batters to a batting line of .222/.289/.311 career. His 2007 salary was $3 million, but you have to think he'd take less to pitch for the Yankees after his injury plagued year last season.

Offer him $2.5 million for one season and bring him in. You could do a lot worse in this market and what do you have to lose? Get on the phone Cashman.

The Mitchell Debacle

I've been chatting over at Bronx Banter today, and I realized that some of the things I had going there would make for a decent COH post on my feelings today. Here they are, unedited and strung together in a paragraph by paragraph format:

The interesting thing to me is not the content of the report but the existence of the report itself. For months and months the idea of the report as a transformative moment in the sport has permeated discussion. The idea that a bombshell was going to be dropped featuring some of the biggest stars in the sport was common referential context for the whole thing. What it ends up being is a mostly circumstantial, dimly lit path linking a few networks of players. The names are mostly those already suspected or known and the report is going to fizzle into the ether once pitchers and catchers report in February. The importance of the whole research and its place in baseball history is suspect and the hype that has accompanied any discussion of it for all these weeks and months is like everything else in the 24-hour news cycle: sketchy, fleeting trivia.

From the press conference: "Obviously, the players who illegally used performance enhancing substances are responsible for their actions. But they did not act in a vacuum. Everyone involved in baseball over the past two decades – Commissioners, club officials, the Players Association, and players – shares to some extent in the responsibility for the steroids era. There was a collective failure to recognize the problem as it emerged and to deal with it early on. As a result, an environment developed in which illegal use became widespread."

That quote is a perfect illustration of the political whitewashing that the report represents. It does what the 911 Commission did. It does what any politically motivated document does in the current media climate. It provides a catharsis for a societal crisis, perceived or real, by naming a few names, slapping a few wrists, and eventually blaming everyone and no one all at once. That's why I said that the existence of the report is more interesting than the content. It is less a piece of paper with information than a symbolic cleansing of the public palate. It's a facilitator of purgation that allows us to move on. That is the only importance of the document.

The idea is that the report's only value is in the purgative. It draws a picture based largely on filling in the gaps between legal evidence and pure hearsay by insinuation. If that's the best you can do, you should avoid naming names at all. From a legal perspective, I'd guess that the players have no recourse for slander, but from a purely ethical standpoint, with the knowledge that what is printed in the mass media becomes truth via repetition, it would be better to avoid names without hard, damning evidence. The discussion here about Pettitte illustrates that better than anything. Score another one for the corporate government media complex.

This whole thing feels like masturbation, only without the pleasure.

Would this report as a PUBLIC document still have served the same purpose had the names been "redacted"? As a private document, used only for MLB's internal debate on drugs, it may be instructive to have anecdotal evidence linking specific teams and players to the problem. As a PUBLIC document, the only value in naming names is to sexy up the issue for the 24-hour news cycle, blogs, and random water cooler chatter. If you have shaky legal evidence linking a player to this issue, then you have shaky grounds to try him in the court of public opinion as well. If I were the union, I'd make a HUGE HUGE stink over the naming of names on these grounds.

The problem with this report and its release to the public is that it produces a mythology about steroids and baseball in which the main characters are now set in stone. There was no legal basis for the naming of these names, but by mass-mediated communication the mythology becomes ubiquitous. If anyone has the stomach for reading Roland Barthes "Mythologies", he breaks down how the whole process of mythologization works. Wikipedia's entry on his book states, "Barthes refers to the tendency of socially constructed notions, narratives, and assumptions to become "naturalized" in the process, that is, taken unquestioningly as given within a particular culture." I would argue that this is what's happening to Clemens and Pettitte here. Particularly Pettitte. Bonds is a man with direct legal links to this issue. Giambi is also an admitted user, as is (apparently) Sheff. There are others. Pettitte has been linked by this report to performance enhancing drugs with only the most circumstantial evidence, if you can even call it evidence, yet he is lumped in with the legally damned. His name is all over the headlines today. Mass-mediated communication channels have now fueled the mythologization of Pettitte as a PED monster, and he will never be able to extricate himself from it. It's over. That's why the names should have been redacted for public use.

Japanese Free Agents

I posted a little update on the Japanese free agent crop at Baseball Japan. Headlining the post is the new Cubs' outfielder Kosuke Fukudome. A sneak peek:

Kosuke Fukudome - outfielder
Fukudome signed a 4-year deal worth 48 million with the Chicago Cubs. Those were the numbers I expected as well as the destination. For what it's worth Nate Silver at BP posted the following PECOTA for Fukudome, noting that the numbers are built on a truncated 2007's data. Bump the plate appearances by 100 or so and you get the idea that a 40 double, 20 home run season isn't out of the question. The .905 OPS also looks very nice.

PA   R  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO SB  CS  BA   OBP  SLG  EqA  VORP  WARP
465  80  30  4  15  58  70  94  9   3 .289 .401 .504 .303  29.2  4.4

Matsui to Stay

Apologies to my good friends at BP, but I thought I'd cut and paste Hideki Matsui's numbers here to make a few points about the current rumors. If you'll notice below, Matsui's career batting line is .295/.371/.485 and in 2007, a year that was supposedly a disappointment, he put up basically those same numbers. How does a guy go from being a clutch, True Yankee, fan favorite to being an almost universally regarded has been? I would argue that people have lost their minds. In order to make this argument without being labeled a Japanese player PR man, which I have been from time to time in the past, I want to use these numbers and others to show why this possible trade is a bad idea.

Actual Batting Statistics

YEAR    G    AB    H  2B  3B  HR    R  RBI   SB   CS   SO   BB   GDP   BA   OBA    SLG
2003  163   623  179  42   1  16   82  106    2    2   86   63    25  .287  .353  .435
2004  162   584  174  34   2  31  109  108    3    0  103   88    11  .298  .390  .522
2005  162   629  192  45   3  23  108  116    2    2   78   63    16  .305  .367  .496
2006   50   172   52   9   0   8   32   29    1    0   23   27     7  .302  .393  .494
2007  143   547  156  28   4  25  100  103    4    2   73   73     9  .285  .367  .488

.     680  2555  753 158  10 103  431  462   12    6  363  314    68  .295  .371  .485

Advanced Batting Statistics

                           <---------ADJUSTED FOR SEASON----->
YEAR  OUT  UEQR    EQA  EQR BRAR BRAA  FRAR FRAA PRAR  WARP1
2003  452    92   .271   86   29    9    1  -12    0    3.3
2004  415   116   .306  107   55   36   -1  -12    0    5.9
2005  447   109   .293  104   47   26    9   -3    0    6.2
2006  122    32   .296   29   14    8    7    5    0    2.3
2007  403    98   .286   88   37   19   -1  -10    0    4.0

.     1839   446   .290  415  181   98   15  -32    0   21.7

Matsui's career EQA is a very respectable .290, and in 2007 he posted a 32.4 VORP and a 4.0 WARP1. Prior to the wrist injury, Matsui had a 43.8 VORP in 2005 and a 6.2 WARP1. If the level of play that you expect from Matsui is somewhere in between the two seasons, you'd have to get a pitcher like the 2007 A.J. Burnett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, or Andy Pettitte back in a deal. Sure Noah Lowry and Tim Lincecum were both of comparable value to Matsui last seasonby that system, but the Giants are not going to give up Lincecum in this deal and Lowry simply has no place on this team. Where does he fit? Which of our young guys is going to stay in AAA for Lowry?

The BP list of most comparable players features 1996's Paul O'Neill as it's best match. 1999's Larry Walker and Dave Justice are also on the list, as is 1986's Keith Hernandez. Matsui has more value as a DH for us right now than anything we can realistically expect to get back. He is a perfect guy for the situation he's in. In the context of the Yankees offense, he'll drive in 100 and score 100, while hitting .300 on the year. He's a solid and consistent performer that comes at a fairly economical price in 2008. Certainly, he's a better all around player than Damon, who has put up a .265 - .280 EQA for the Yankees and had a 3.5 WARP1 last year. His defense is actually worse than Matsui's in many respects and he is ill suited to the leadoff role that we ask him to play. Jeter should be up there.

If there's a guy that needs to be shipped out to cut salary and bring back a bullpen arm, it's Mike Mussina. In the NL he can still have an effective 2008, and the Phillies would probably love to have him. It just works. What can we get back from Philly, considering they have dealt with us in the past (Abreu/Lidle)? Maybe we can figure out how to get a guy like James Happ from the Phillies for Moose. Throw in a little money to offset the salary, and make a deal.

ESPN =....

Entirely Sox Propaganda Network

This from Jayson "I Don't Have a Shred of Journalistic Integrity" Stark (emphasis mine):

"While Hank Steinbrenner set deadlines and publicly lusted after Johan Santana, the Red Sox just bided their time and stayed in the game.

And what do you know? As Monday night turned into Tuesday morning at the winter meetings, suddenly it was the Red Sox who loomed as the favorites to pull off a deal for the best pitcher in baseball."

....and this:

"But if the Red Sox wind up sweeping Santana out from under them -- and adding him to a rotation that already includes Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka -- it will be fascinating to see if the Yankees feel the need to respond by reeling in another ace of their own.

'If the Red Sox get Santana," said an executive of one NL team that's grateful to be in the other league, "they might be the best team in the history of the frigging universe.'"

Is that the dumbest collection of sensationalism anyone's ever seen? If the situation was reversed, the Red Sox will have been the crafty and frugal club that is content to ride a team built to win the World Series. They have nothing to prove. And so on. The Yankees would be making a bold, but desperate move. Good thing the Red Sox are the geniuses they are, and know how to play dumb old Hank Steinbrenner by sweeping the rug out from under him and becoming the best team in the history of the frigging universe. Ugh.

Haren Similarity

So Johan Santana is really out of the mix. In a way, it's really too bad. Look at the top 5 similarity comparisons to Johan Santana at age 28:

1. Tim Hudson
2. Roy Oswalt
3. John Candelaria
4. Juan Pizarro
5. Bob Welch
6. Mike Mussina

I know. That's 6, but Moose was hanging out there and needed inclusion for reference. Overall similarity comparisons have Oswalt as the top overall match. The upside is that he would continue to be the dominant guy that Oswalt has been. Roy Halladay is somewhere on that list as well, as is Jake Peavy. Those are names you like to hear. The John Candelarias, Juan Pizarros, and Bob Welchs of the world are not what you are looking to spend prospects and a billion dollars to acquire. You develop those guys or pass on them in free agency.

Let's look at Danny Haren:

1. Oil Can Boyd
2. Brad Penny
3. Jim Lonborg
4. Joel Pineiro
5. Ben McDonald

The overall comparison isn't worth adding to this list, except to say that Bedard is there. Oil Can Boyd??? Brad Penny??? This is the perfect illustration of why you DO NOT EVER IN YOUR LIFE SPEND BIG ON FREE AGENT PITCHERS UNLESS YOU ARE DAMN SURE THEY ARE FIRST BALLOT HALL OF FAMERS. Ahem.

Trading away any of our top prospects for Haren is a sure fire way of making the Javier Vazquez mistake all over again. Jeff Weaver. Carl Pavano. Haren may be better than those guys, but I think the Big Three each have the potential to be ENORMOUSLY more talented than Haren. At worst, Kennedy should sniff that level. Why cave in on this situation. There has to be some organizational sense. With Pettitte and Wang fronting the rotation and Mussina holding down the back end, you can afford to watch the kids grow and see what they are. If you still want to trade them later because you think their value has peaked and there's something irresistible out there, do it. If not, you have a veritable pitching factory at your disposal in the minors now.

Ugh. Just say no.