Yankee Notes: August 13th, 2006

A few random things from Game #2 of the Angels series, and more....

1. Jorge Posada is now 0 for his last 21, with 1 walk and 7 Ks. He is also 8 for his last 48 (.167) with 6 walks and 13 Ks. The summer months got to Jorge last year too, and it would seem the heat and rough schedule are affecting his bat. He's been good throwing out runners for the most part though. He's currently 5th among qualified Major League catchers in "caught stealing percentage". He's putting up a career best .389 in that department.

2. Ya think Robinson Cano was itching to get back into the everyday lineup? He was hot with the bat in his rehab assignment, and it's carried over in his return to 2B for the Bombers. Try 9 for 19 (.474) with 2 homers and 4 RBIs in 5 games. Talk about value over replacement player! How many homers and RBIs did Miguel Cairo have in his time at 2B while Cano was on the DL? Try 21 for 91 (.231) with no homers and 11 RBIs in 27 games. Welcome back Robbie!

3. Johnny Damon is quietly having one of his best seasons. He is on pace to break his personal best for home runs with the short porch at Yankee Stadium really helping him a lot. At the Stadium he's homering once every 21.5 ABs, while on the road his rate drops to once every 34 ABs. His numbers so far in pinstripes are very similar to what he did for the Red Sox over 4 seasons. This season he's 6th among all Major League CFers in VORP, and there are only 4 players at that position with more Win Shares. It seems that we're getting everything we paid for. It's also worth noting that Coco Crisp is 27th among CFers in VORP and is tied with Bernie Williams with 6 Win Shares in only 55 fewer plate appearances. In fact, Bernie's .747 OPS is 30 points higher than Crisp. Imagine Bernie Williams hitting lead off for the Yankees every day and you have Boston's current configuration under Francona!

4. Jaret Wright is tops among all Major League starters in HR/9, just ahead of Jared Weaver (who we see tomorrow), Roger Clemens, and Chien Min Wang! Although he doesn't go deep into ballgames, he's been quite good for a back of the rotation starter this year. He's stayed healthy (knock wood) and kept his ERA fairly low at 4.24, giving up only 3 runs over his last 17 IP! Outstanding. If he keeps it up, his ERA will be the lowest he's ever produced with the exception of his stellar 2004 season with the Braves.

5. Regular reader, jamie, asked me in yesterday's comments section about the man the Yankees signed to be their associate scout in Japan. Shoichi Kida was a player at the same high school that Daisuke Matsuzaka attended, and also briefly played in the Seibu system before retiring to scouting. The Yankees clearly hired Kida to be an in for the Yankees in Seibu/Matsuzaka negotiations. What effect he will have on the bidding process, and so on, is unclear. I'll give you my 2 cents on the posting of players from Japanese professional teams. Please take what I say with a grain of salt as I have never spoken directly with anyone involved in Japanese professional baseball administration, scouts, or officials of any kind. I know what I know from reading, listening to news and analysis over here, and from asking around.

The Japanese way of doing business is as much a system of insider/outsider positioning as anywhere in the world. There is a superficial side to things, where everything appears open and above board. Then there is the behind the scenes world where business is really conducted. I should say that I believe this to be the same everywhere, but the "good old boys" network in Japan is reserved VERY exclusively for insiders. If you're not in, it's highly unlikely you ever will be. The way you get "in" is to follow the path that everyone before you followed, and do things exactly as they did them. You pay your dues according to the strict set of cultural norms that exist in the business community you are a part of.

That's why I feel the Mariners actually have the upper-hand in dealing with Seibu. The former Chairman of Nintendo owns the Mariners, and his son-in-law is the face of the ownership's Board. You can't get more inside than that. The Yankees have the upper hand, perhaps, with Matsuzaka negotiations as Kida is his "sempai" or senior with both Yokohama High School and the Lions. Boras is a fan of big money and the Yankees are always willing to oblige him for his clients' services. Do the Yanks and their dollars have enough to penetrate the insider advantage that Seattle has? Will the Mariners have some kind of advantage in placing the highest bid to Seibu? Walls have ears after all. It's impossible to know.

That's all for now. The King of New York looks to bounce back from his off day against the ChiSox tomorrow. Tell the worms to wear their helmets. Go Yanks!

The Battle for Daisuke

I don't want to even get into the Yankees loss to the Angels today. It bugs me. You can likely find a lot of comments on the Yanks dismal showing on other blogs in the Yankee blogosphere. I'm choosing to focus on Daisuke Matsuzaka today. Speculation about his future is growing almost by the day, and I thought I'd take a look at the latest. This post appears at Matsuzaka Watch in truncated form for the benefit of non-Yankee fans. For a video of the young righty's 14 K performance this season, click this link to the story.

The Seattle news media has been busy lately speculating on the Mariners acquisition of Daisuke Matsuzaka in the off season. Blurbs in the newspapers, from Seattle's MLB.com writer, and translations of the both have included the Mariners in the race for the ace righty's services. It's natual given the influence of board member Minoru Arakawa, who basically created Nintendo America, Donkey Kong, and the NES systems. He is the son-in-law of former Nintendo Chairman and Mariners owner Hiroshi Yamauchi. The Mariners have been in the hunt for Japanese talent after pioneering the acquisition of everyday players with the signing of Ichiro Suzuki.

This short note from Rotowire is a nice short summary of the news, and includes mention of the money involved in the posting, and perspective on the high pitch counts. $30 million dollars seems to be a popular figure bandied about in the discussions of Seibu negotiations, which seems outlandish, but they are in a seller's market after all. If you take that figure into consideration, and factor in the estimate of $10 million a year over 4 or 5 years, the amount of money teams will need to spend on Matsuzaka is roughly $16-$17 million per season. Ouch. That kind of money is reserved for the Mussinas, Clemenses, Randy Johnsons, Andy Pettittes, Pedro Martinezes, and Curt Schillings of the world. Even those guys are somewhat overpaid at that figure.

The base salary of $10 million a season would put DM in the company of Derek Lowe, Jose Contreras, Ben Sheets, Matt Clement, Eric Milton, Jason Schmidt, and Tom Glavine among 2006 base salaries. As good as he is, and as much as I believe he'll earn that kind of money as a frontline starter for the next 7, 8, 9 years, it all but eliminates most of the Major League clubs. 19 teams have a starter making $8 million or more. 13 teams have a $9 million+ starter. 10 teams have a guy making more than $10 million for a single season. Those teams are the Giants (Schmidt), the Mets (Glavine, Pedro), the Braves (Smoltz, Hampton), the Astros (Oswalt, Pettitte, Clemens), the Cubs (Wood), the White Sox (Vasquez), the Blue Jays (Halladay), the Red Sox (Schilling), the Padres (Chan Ho Park!!), and the Yankees (Johnson, Mussina).

What you see there is a combination of big market teams, with both New York and Chicago franchises on the list, a couple of mid-market teams with owners who wisely spend on pitching in the Red Sox, Astros, and Braves, ace pitchers on floundering middle of the road teams (Halladay and Schmidt), and an awful contract in San Diego. Chan Ho Park is the 5th highest paid pitcher in the Majors this year at $15.3 million!!!

The Mariners starting rotation in 2006 looks like this:

Jarrod Washburn ($7.45 million)
Joel Pineiro ($6.8 million)
Jamie Moyer ($5.5 million)
Gil Meche ($3.7 million)
Felix Hernandez ($340,000)

By contrast, the Yankees are paying the following starting pitchers:

Mike Mussina ($19 million)
Randy Johnson ($15.7 million)
Carl Pavano ($8 million)
Jaret Wright ($7.7 million)
Cory Lidle ($3.3 million)
Sidney Ponson ($1 million)
Chien Ming Wang ($353,175)

The Mariners would seem to have a nice amount of wiggle room in their payroll (currently ranked 11th at a little over $87 million) with Jamie Moyer, Joel Pineiro, and Gil Meche's contracts expiring after this season. I'm not up on the latest Mariners' contract discussions, but you'd have to figure that they are ready to say goodbye to Moyer. You'd have to figure that they will keep one of either Pineiro or Meche, who will both turn 28 in September. Both seems silly, given their mediocre performances, but you never know. There will be a lot of freed up money to splash on Matsuzaka if the Mariners are serious. With Ichiro and Johjima in the fold it makes sense. It almost seems like they had this plan a year ago when they brought in a catcher who speaks Japanese, huh?

The Yankees, for their part, would seem to have more flexibility than it would appear at first glance. Beyond deep pockets, the Yankees have some moves they can make to actually lower payroll and still add Daisuke. Here's how.

The Yanks can refuse the option on Mussina, thereby losing $17 million from the 2007 payroll. It makes sense given his declining performance, the first half of this year notwithstanding. Even in today's market Mike Mussina is not worth $17 million when that money can be put to good use on a younger guy.

They can lose an additional $16 million off the 2008 payroll when they let Randy Johnson walk. His performance is even further beyond Mike Mussina's decline and there are no Yankee fans anywhere that would cry to see him leave.

Unless we trade him somehow, Carl Pavano's increasing payout will be counted against us through at least 2008. There's not much we can do about that. Jaret Wright, on the other hand, can be bought out after this season at a drastically reduced rate. 2007 became a club option with a $4M buyout since Wright was on the disabled list for more than 75 days with a pitching-related shoulder injury in 05-06. He will almost certainly be an ex-Yankee next year. Sidney Ponson's $1 million is gone as soon as the paint dries on the season. Cory Lidle may be in the same boat.

I'm not clear about Chien-Min Wang's options after the 2006 season, as his Major League service has been short, but he'll be due for a nice payday in the near future. I'm guessing the Yanks will shell out Pavano money to him to keep the 26 year old in the fold for a while. Whatever happens, it would seem that he'll be a Yankee at a discount rate next year as well.

All in all, the Yankees can trim the 2007 payroll by letting Mussina, Ponson, and Lidle go, and buying out Jaret Wright at $4 million. That's a total savings of around $25 million. Using the Mussina money to pay Matsuzaka evens out, while the remaining salary cuts should be able to fund another veteran pitcher for a couple of years, until the younguns are ready to crack the Major League rotation. We'd be looking at a 2007 rotation somthing like this:

Randy Johnson
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Chien-Min Wang
Carl Pavano
Veteran FA or Minor Leaguer

It would seem wise to grab a veteran to shore up the #5 spot to hold the young pitchers for emergency situations. When Randy Johnson's contract comes off the books prior to the 2008 season, we can throw his money at a pitcher like Carlos Zambrano or Roy Oswalt. We could forseeably field a 2008 rotation of:

Carlos Zambrano/Roy Oswalt
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Chien-Min Wang
Carl Pavano
Phil Hughes

That could be a fearsome young rotation. All of those pitchers, with the exception of Pavano and Oswalt, would be 27 years old or younger. No lefty in the rotation is the only problem I see with that group. What you've done in the span of two off seasons is transform a rotation of high priced pitchers on the wrong side of their careers with stud pitchers in their primes for the same money. The beauty of it is, that rotation should stay solid for a good stretch of time at a fixed cost, and the only player mentioned that will likely be sent off in favor of a cheaper, better replacement is Pavano. Perhaps we'll see Hughes pitch so well that our 5th starter can be another kid like Joba Chamberlain, Adam Kennedy, or Tyler Clippard. Dellin Betances will be in the wings for the next generation of Yankees.

In the end, the "posting money" you gave to Seibu can be offset by Japanese marketing. You'll draw even more television interest, tourism, jersey sales, memorabilia, and ad sales to Japanese companies. The base salary that Matsuzaka will earn, actually becomes a bargain if he performs like an ace. Smart business. Seattle already knows it with Ichiro, and the Yankees definitely know it with Matsui. Unlike Ichiro and Matsui, Matsuzaka will only pitch every 5th day. It hardly matters, however, as the interest in those games he starts will be huge. He is called "the Crown Jewel of Japanese Baseball" after all.

The Mariners and the Yankees are the wisest choices for everyone involved. With everyday Japanese players in their lineups , and large Japanese populations, New York and Seattle will reap the benefits of additional exposure in Japan. Without the everyday player the TV coverage is limited to a once a week appearance. Seibu figures to make money from the marketing of Matsuzaka as one of their own in the Major Leagues, Japanese advertisers would benefit from the everyday tv exposure that their brand would get, and Matsuzaka himself would have a comrade to consult on the peculiarities of life in the US.

That's not to say that the Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, or other high payroll clubs wouldn't love to get in on the action. I'll examine those teams a bit more closely as we get closer to the close of the season. How would paying Seibu and signing Matsuzaka affect those teams' fortunes? For now, it seems the Mariners and Yanks are off to the races.

Tempered Frustration

The last game of the Yanks/Chisox series was a marathon of frustration. The bulletin board over at Bronx Banter was high tension and there was very little to get excited about throughout the grueling "suck-a-thon" that were Yankee at bats. The Bombers offense is in very good shape. They made Javy Vasquez throw 94 pitches through 4 innings and 100+ through 5. The problem was not the individual at bats as much as the collective work that they produced.

You would figure that the Yankees would have managed more than 2 runs against Vasquez on 6 hits and 6 walks over 5 innings, but it wasn't to be. The Bombers ended up stranding 24 runners in a very frustrating day of ups and downs. A-Rod was putrid at the plate. Posada continues his horrendous batting since July 24th, now 0 for his last 16, and 8 for his last 44 (.182) going back to the start of the Rangers series. In that time his line is .182/.280/.364 over 12 games. Despite his home run today, Giambi left as many base runners as A-Rod, striking out in a couple of huge spots, and looking bad doing it. Since his hot 11 home run June, Giambi is hitting .208/.359+/.500 for an OPS of around .859, which isn't awful, but isn't Giambi either. I put the "+" next to his OBP because he's been hit by a few pitches and I didn't feel like counting them when figuring the numbers.

All that having been said, let's take a look at the numbers in the Chicago series to gain a little perspective on where we're at today (3 games up on the Red Sox - 4 in the loss).

Yankees Bats
.282/.354/.539 (.893 team OPS)
16 runs on 7 doubles, 1 triple, 7 home runs
7/7 in stolen bases

White Sox Bats
.262/.339/.447 (.786 team OPS)
17 runs on 7 doubles and 4 home runs
1/5 stolen bases

Yankee Starters
17 IP
4.76 ERA
1.353 WHIP
5 walks, 12 strikeouts

White Sox Starters
18 IP
5.50 ERA
1.667 WHIP
8 walks, 19 strikeouts

Yankees Pen
10.1 IP
5.23 ERA
1.355 WHIP
5 walks, 12 strikeouts

White Sox Pen
11 IP
2.45 ERA
1.364 WHIP
4 walks, 10 strikeouts

The thing that looks positive to me is that our offense was clearly better than theirs. Our starters were more effective. The pen looks worse, but eliminating Farnsworth's meltdown in our one win makes the pen's pitching line look this way:

9.2 IP
1.86 ERA
1.035 WHIP
4 walks, 10 strikeouts

The turning point of the entire series was Konerko's homer against Mo. If he had nailed the save down we'd have won the series 2 games to 1 and the numbers would look even more lopsided for the Yanks. Take away a home run, an earned run, and points off average, OBP, and SLG from one at bat and the Yanks dominated the Sox. That's baseball. Let's try turning Konerko's at bat in the 9th into an out and assume Mariano got the save 1-2-3. Yanks win the series 2-1.

White Sox Bats
.232/.309/.394 (.703 team OPS)

Yankees Pen
9 IP
4.00 ERA (Farnsworth)
1.000 WHIP
4 walks, 9 strikeouts

That's how pivotal the Konerko home run was against Mo. You win the game, eliminate Proctor's meltdown, and dominate the White Sox. So, Yankee fans, don't fret. The Royals swept the Red Sox, the Yanks dropped a couple of heartbreakers against the defending world champions, but we didn't play all that poorly. What goes around, comes around. We're saving the big stuff for the Red Sox. See you tomorrow. Go Yanks.

(Update available at Matsuzaka Watch)

Pitching In

Randy Johnson was absolutely brilliant through 6 innings. No hitter. Where have you been all my life Big Unit....uh....I mean that it the most Yankees-related, Randy Johnson contextual way possible.

The end result of his outing wasn't nearly as pretty as the bulk of his 6+ innings of work, but I have to say that I was a bit worried about all the time he spent in the dugout as the Yankees laid it on the White Sox at bat. Johnson's big issue is his 6'10" frame and the narrow spine and musculature that are supporting it at age 61. He's got a lot of mileage on that frame of his and sitting in the dugout for long stretches doesn't help it any. I'm guessing that was the final straw in his poor showing to start the 7th. The Yankees managed to wiggle out of it thanks to a little miracle by Ron Villone. I wondered "aloud" at Bronx Banter if it would be best to bring in Mariano Rivera with the bases loaded, no one out, and the tying run on deck in the 7th. Villone made that point moot.

Farnsworth's 100 mile an hour assortment of "where will it end up this time?" made things way too interesting, and Mariano had to come to the rescue with a little adventure of his own. Glad we have him and not Johnathan Papelbon, who blew his second coonsecutive save against the Royals to help the Yankees take a 3 game lead (4 in the loss). All is right in Yankeeland.

From the hitting side of things, Abreu continues to be blistering for the Yankees. With the Bombers in 8 games, Abreu is .412/474/.588 (1.062 OPS) with 3 doubles, a homer, and 3 stolen bases. He isn't even taking his walks yet. He has 3 walks to 10 strikeouts in pinstripes, so you know there's more to come. Eat your heart out Theo Epstein. Cash money is magic.

I watched my home prefecture's entry in the Koshien National High School Baseball Tournament at work today. In Japan this event is like the Final Four, and then some. Everyone stops what they're doing to sit in front of the television (and a big fan) and support their local team. In the teacher's break room, 7 or 8 of us gathered to watch the Honjo (Akita Prefecture) High School team take on the powerhouse Tenri High School (Nara Prefecture) club. Honjo is not a regular visitor to the Koshien tournament, and looked to be an overwhelming underdog to the perennial power Tenri. I took this as a great opportunity to pick the brains of Japanese baseball fans about the peculiarities of their style of play.

Right away Tenri scored 2 runs to put Honjo on its heels. The Honjo kids were resilient and got runners on base with no outs in the 1st two frames. What did they do next? Yup. They bunted. That's what they do here. It's the WAY baseball is meant to be played you see. It's an asthetic. It's tradition. I kept quiet.

Tenri proceeded to turn the game into a laugher with their superior pitching and power, as the starter finished the 4th inning with a no hitter working, before the bats came alive for 5 runs in the top of the 5th. The Tenri manager saw the two lead off batters in the 5th reach safely and then we all knew what was coming. Bunt. The thing is, the first pitch was bunted foul. I cringed and asked the teachers why they would bunt an excellent hitter with no one out and two runners aboard. The Honjo pitcher was wild and on the ropes. They said to me in Japanese, "This is not baseball. This is yakyu. And, it's Koshien.", to which I replied, "But the point is to win."

They laughed and shook their heads knowingly. They said, "No. This is high school yakyu. And, it's Koshien. The point is to play the right way." I knew they agreed with me on many levels, but they know the reality of the tradition and the pattern that must be followed. The second pitch was on its way and the batter squared again. This time, however, he pulled his bat back at the very last second and laced a rope over the right fielder's head which rolled all the way to the wall. 4-0 Tenri. The throw to the infield was off base and the runner advanced to 3rd. The next batter roped a double off the left field wall making the score 5-0. Still yet, the following hitter strode to the plate an impressive physical specimen for a Japanese high school kid and did what all good cleanup hitters do. He cleand up with a 2 run monster shit into the left field stands. After the next hitter reached on a little single, the starting pitcher was yanked. He gave up 7 runs in 4+ innings and was getting shelled.

The number 6 hitter came to the plate and bunted the runner over to second. The next two hitters made out. So much for the bunt, but it seemed to be a moot point. The non-bunt that started the scoring went a long way to helping make my point about not giving up outs. It would rear its ugly head again in this game though.

The Honjo kids scrapped 2 runs across in the bottom of the inning. Two hits led to runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out. The pitcher came in hitting 9th and bunted the runners over to 2nd an 3rd with 2 outs. I still felt funny about it, bunting when you're down 7-0 in the 5th, but the pitcher was hitting a buck-something on the year and I figured it was better than the double play. All of us kind of looked at each other knowingly as the sacrifice was successful. National League style ball in effect. The lead off man came through with a big hit to make the game 7-2. The inning ended with that score.

The next inning Honjo got the #3 hitter on base after a lead off error by Tenri. The clean up man for Honjo followed suit by cleaning up with a triple to make the game 7-3. We had a little ballgame in the works. The next man reached base on a hit to left field scoring the man from 3rd, and the no out rally continued. The #7 batter came to the plate with a robust .556 batting average in local/prefectural/Koshien tournament play, and Tenri changed pitchers. You know what .556 hitters do with a runner on 1st and no outs, when they are followed by .125 and .200 hitters in the lineup don't you? Yup. They bunt. Even my co-workers were rolling on the floor at this turn of events. The next two guys went down weakly, as their averages would predict, and the rally was ended at 7-4.

That was all for the scoring in the game until two outs and two strikes in the bottom of the 9th when the lead off man for Honjo hit a "backscreen" home run to make it 7-5. The next batter swung at the 1st pitch and popped out to short.

My observations on this event...great drama. Real spirit. Hometown loyalty in effect. Bad baseball. Too much bunting. No one works the count at all. Pitchers catch the return throw from the catcher and almost immediately start their windup again, even if they are struggling with their control. The pace never changes. Umpires are nearly robotic as they make their calls. Every call is picture perfect as if it came from the illustration in the umpiring manual about how to call "safe", "out", "strike", etc....kind of funny, but refreshing.

I have a theory I'm going to run with about Japanese baseball. The #1 thing to understand about the game is that pitch counts mean absolutely nothing at the junior levels. High School pitchers will throw 150, 180, 200, 250, pitches in one game. Recently, in a regional tournament game, a guy pitched the Koshien clincher one day with over 200 pitches, and had to come back to the mound the next day to pitch again and the 1st days game went into darkness, tied in extra innings. He won the game in the 12th inning, after amassing 350 pitches over 2 days. For one thing, that's criminal and some one needs to put a stop to it. The second things is, I think it affects the style of play a lot.

Think about it for a second. In the US pitch counts are a big thing. You know a guy is toast when he hits 100 or 115. Hitters will work counts and prolong at bats to wear the starter out. Guys make careers out of fouling off pitches. The way the game is taught today is a lot different in the US than it is in Japan. You take a pitch in the US. Many times you'll take 2 pitches. At the high school level you can guarantee that a pitcher will get wild at some point and taking pitches will earn you valuable base runners. In Japan, pitch counts mean absolutely nothing, so why would anyone worry about prolonging their at bat? Sure you get a better look at the pitcher, and your OBP increases with every pitch over 6, but guys see their pitches and swing at them. Nothing wrong with that, but sooooo many guys swing at the first pitch they see. A lot of times, players will work the count in their favor and swing at the strike that's low and outside instead of waiting for their pitch.

It's partly because they're young and haven't developed their eye completely, but it's also partly because no one is thinking about making a guy throw a lot of pitches.

That's my take on the Japanese game for today. More another time. Mussina versus Vasquez tomorrow. Big night for Johnny Damon? Go Yanks!

Check

The King of New York, Chien Ming Wang took the mound in hopes of continuing the recent stretch of Yankee dominance, and extending his own scoreless inning streak. That task would prove difficult as the defending World Champion Chicago White Sox had us on their own home turf, leading the Major Leagues in runs scored and home runs.

Wang struggled to find his groove in the game, allowing hits on a number of balls that recently have gone his way. That's going to happen, and there will always be starts like this for the game's best pitchers. Good offenses hit good pitching sometimes. Otherwise, you'd see Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana go 35-0 every year.

The Pale Hose had Wang in check, but they couldn't get checkmate until Mariano Rivera gave up the tying homer in the 9th, and Scott Proctor gave up the game in the 11th. The game had a number of positive signs for Wang, despite his unusually high pitch count and ineffective pitching. Get ready for this.....Are you sitting down? Wang featured a 12-0 GO/AO ratio in the ballgame. His location may have been off on a number of occasions, allowing good hitters to get on base, but he still only walked 2 and kept the ball on the ground.

Some people are pointing the the pop up behind 3rd that A-Rod missed just prior to the Jermaine Dye walk-off hit. Yeah....he should have caught that probably. The thing is, you can't get on him too much as he was 3 for 3 with 2 walks, a homer and a stolen base. The Yankees should never have been in that situation. The fault for the loss falls squarely on Mariano Rivera's shoulders, and he'd tell you the same. It's no big deal. It's going to happen. The Red Sox lost, so we caught a break.

The other two guys who kind of choked up and deserve a little flak are Jorge Posada with an 0 for 5 including a big bases loaded double play to kill the rally at one run in the 8th. Bernie Williams catches a little heat for his incredibly weak at bat pinch hitting for Jason Giambi. If you're going to look that bad Bernie, you gotta take more batting practice or something. Your only role on the team at this point is pinch hitter. Learn to do it well, please.

The day also featured the latest outing for AA phenom Phil Hughes. Guess how he did? Yup, he was lights out again. He pitched his requisite 5 innings, giving up 2 hits, a run, and struck out 6. He's been getting a lot more press lately, including this article from MLB.com a couple of days ago. He's looking better and better all the time. Let's hope he continues this into his 2007 stint in AAA and makes it tough for the Yankees to keep him there for long. Way ta go kid!

Daisuke Matsuzaka also took the mound today. He faced the Orix Buffaloes and went 5 strong innings, throwing 88 pitches, and striking out 4. He allowed an uncharacteristically high 8 hits and a walk in those 5 innings, but only gave up 2 runs. For more details, check later for a complete recap at Matsuzaka Watch.

That's all for now. Good luck tomorrow Yanks.

The AL MVP Question

Thanks to excellent fan support from Taiwan, as well as from loyal readership in the US, Canyon of Heroes has not only surpassed 20,000 hits in half the time it took to reach 10,000 but in less than 3 days we've also surpassed 25,000 hits!! Taiwan has been outstanding with a number of blogs and bulletin boards discussing COH content. It has come to my attention that a day or two ago, the 3rd largest daily newspaper in Taiwan, China Daily, ran an article featuring Canyon of Heroes artwork depicting Chien Ming Wang. I sure hope they gave me credit, but either way the fans know where it comes from and I hope you keep coming back for more. Xie xie. Kam sia.

Wang pithces tomorrow, so come back for a recap and some new artwork.

Today, I want to examine the question, "Who is the AL MVP?" I was browsing the web yesterday and came across a question being posed at Boston Dirt Dogs. They asked their readers, who are of course completely objective, non-partial, and always well-informed, MVP: Is Jeter a serious threat to Big Papi? At first glance, I thought that question was extremely AL East-centric, and neither of those players had been first in my mind. Jeter's lack of power surely affects his chances in a year when so many sluggers are battling night in and night out. Papi is always a consideration, but I've always held onto the premise that he's not even the best hitter on his own team. If any Red Sox player was to be named MVP it should be Manny Ramirez. But, I'm not one to leave these things to impressions without a real examination of the facts. Maybe Jeter is the MVP. Maybe Ortiz' highlight reel moments are an indication of something that will be more accurately depicted in the stats. Let's look.

Everyone's criteria for Most Valuable Player is a bit different. The actual guidelines for the award are vague at best. They leave the evaluation up to the individual voter to determine for themself, which is a dangerous proposition in some cases. I'm sure Jim Edmonds will get a vote or two for "grittiness" and David Eckstein will get consideration for his "spunky lead-off prowess". I won't claim that I have the sure-fire way to evaluate the MVP, that should be universally adopted by all voters, but I'll make my best attempt at what makes sense to me, as per the open criteria of the actual award.

First, I think we need to consider the guys who have produced the most outstanding individual offensive numbers. Those numbers should be broad-ranging stats that are easy for the average fan to digest. The field will be large as there are a lot of high production stars in the Majors. It's only after narrowing the field with precision metrics that we'll come closer to the real MVP. The basic stats will provide the jumping off point. I'd like to start with OPS as a base number for consideration. It includes a player's ability to get on base, and hit for power. Those are the most essential qualities of an MVP when separating them from the field of Major Leaguers.

The top 10 OPS in the American League are as follows:

1. Travis Hafner (1.060)
2. Manny Ramirez (1.055)
3. Jim Thome (1.050)
4. David Ortiz (1.027)
5. Jermaine Dye (1.025)
6. Jason Giambi (1.006)
7. Vernon Wells (.981)
8. Justin Morneau (.975)
9. Joe Mauer (.970)
10. Paul Konerko (.939)

Derek Jeter comes in 12th with a .913 mark.

What I notice right away is that 4 of the top 6 hitters on that list are DHs. I see this as problematic down the road, but I'll suspend that thought until later. A lot can happen between now and the end of my analysis, and I won't rule out a DH simply for excelling at the "position" he has been assigned to "play". I will say that I believe a DH can only be MVP if his offensive production is so outstanding as to be substantially better than the players who take the field. The only qualifier in that statement is that the guys who play the field actually have to have a positive impact on the team's success. If a guy plays the field but hurts his team, he also therefore hurts his case for MVP.

Keeping Jeter and Ortiz in the discussion, It seems that Jeter is not even in the picture in terms of raw offensive production. Ortiz is up there with a shot at the top spot but there are two full time DHs ahead of him, and his aforementioned teammate, Ramirez. I'd rule out Big Papi at this point too. Based on this extremely incomplete data set, I would consider the debate between Hafner and Ramirez. Ah, but that's why there is more complete data to measure player performance. Let's move on to another statistic that I like. Runs created per 27 outs.

RC27 is a nice number to tell us how many runs a player is directly responsible for creating before he makes 27 outs. Of course, 27 outs is the number of outs in a 9 inning game. Imagine the home run derby, if you will. A guy goes up against a batting practice pitcher and gets 10 outs to hit as many home runs as he can. This is not all that different. How many runs would a guy score if the team was made up of 9 clones of himself, and given 27 outs against a league average pitcher? I like this number because it eliminates a lot of the situational factors that go into OBP and SLG. The playing field is fairly level for everyone and you'll get a nice picture of how many runs a guy is worth to his team.

The top 10 players in RC27 are as follows:

1. Jim Thome (9.89)
2. Travis Hafner (9.58)
3. Manny Ramirez (9.37)
4. Jason Giambi (8.71)
5. David Ortiz (8.64)
6. Joe Mauer (8.63)
7. Jermaine Dye (8.45)
8. Vernon Wells (8.43)
9. Justin Morneau (8.15)
10. Derek Jeter (7.96)

Well, Jeter enters the discussion here, but he's still outside the leaders by a fair margin. Ortiz is still down the ladder in terms of DHs, with 3 ahead of him on this list. What do you know? His teammate is once again ahead of him as well. What to do about that? This number fluctuates a bit game to game, and week to week. Hafner was atop the list just a day or two ago. You can't really separate the top 3 guys very easily. Likewise, 4-8 are not to far apart. I'd say that the threesome of Hafner, Thome, and Ramirez are showing themselves to be the class of the AL with their bats. Two DHs and a lousy LFer.

I'll get into my feelings about DHs at this point, since we can readily see that they are the best hitters in the league. It's hard for me to vote for a DH this year because there are 4 of them at the top of the discussion. So far, Hafner gets the edge in my book, but Thome is close behind him. Ortiz and Giambi are at the 1A level in terms of their production, with all other DHs falling at 2nd-tier and below. Hitting is probably the most important contribution an everyday player can make to his team, so we have to weight this kind of production more heavily when considering MVP. The problem is, at DH a guy is spared the brutal task of fielding ground balls, running into walls, and generally standing out in the sun for hours at a time. He plays half the game. That's not enough though. Manny Ramirez can't really be accused of playing defense. Sure, he stands out in the sun and occasionally lopes over to catch a fly ball, but he's one of the worst outfielders in the game. How can we account for the defensive contrubution that guys make to their teams that may level the playing field in the MVP discussion?

A lot of effort has gone into measuring defense, but nothing is universally agreed upon as a decent determiner for a defender's direct impact on his club's success. It's complicated. A good pitching staff will give the players behind it less difficult circumstances in which to field their positions. Different ballparks produce different results. I'll hold off on using metrics to analyze this aspect of the debate for just a moment. I'd like to take a step back and look at the list of top hitters, and eyeball the players that play to the right of the defensive spectrum. That means 3B-> CF-> 2B-> SS-> C.

In terms of RC27, we see that Manny Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Jermaine Dye, Vernon Wells, Justin Morneau, and Derek Jeter play the field everyday. Of that group, Mauer, Wells, and Jeter play to the right of the spectrum. Mauer is both the highest player on the list, and the furthest to the right on defense. That would have him included in the discussion in my opinion. As it stands now, I am considering Hafner, Thome, Ramirez, and Mauer with my eyes still open on Ortiz, Jeter, and Vernon Wells.

I'd like to see how all this translates to the player's actual "value" though. These guys are great hitters, separated by only a few percentage points here and there. 4 of the top guys are DHs, a bunch of OFs populate the list, and two infielders who play difficult defensive positions. It's still hard to determine who means more to his team. What if he wasn't there? What if each of these guys was missing from his team's lineup and replaced by a AAA guy? The Yankees have played most of the year without Matsui and Sheffield and it certainly had an impact in spite of the good play by Melky and Bernie from time to time. Which one of these guys is worth more to his team as compared to the minor league replacement at his position? Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) should help us gain some perspective on that.

The top 10 players in the American League in VORP are as follows:

1. Travis Hafner (60.3)
2. Derek Jeter (55.6)
3. Vernon Wells (53.6)
4. Joe Mauer (52.4)
5. Manny Ramirez (52.3)
6. David Ortiz (51.9)
7. Jim Thome (50.6)
8. Grady Sizemore (50.5)
9. Miguel Tejada (49.1)
10. Jermaine Dye (45.2)

Ah, that's interesting. You see the manifestation of good offense at tough defensive positions on this list. It's far more difficult to find a good SS, CF, or C than it is a DH, corner OF, or 1B. To his credit, Travis Hafner is at the top of this list. His offensive production has been so good this season that he's outpaced everyone in terms of his value despite playing the easiest position in the sport. He's really leading the pack at this point. Jeter, Wells, and Mauer help their cases a little more, and Ortiz and Thome look to be falling back to the bottom of the pack a bit more. At this point, I'd have to rank my choices as Travis Hafner, Manny Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, Derek Jeter, and David Ortiz. Vernon Wells is in the discussion as well, but needs a miracle to enter the final lap.

Looking at the list I've compiled so far, I feel that I'm missing a couple of things necessary for me to feel good about naming an MVP. The first thing is some kind of data to evaluate defense. Jeter, Mauer, and Wells have been included in this race mainly because they play difficult positions and hit well to boot. I can stick Jason Giambi behind the plate every night and name him the MVP, if I can't qualify how much his play at catcher would cripple my team. The other thing I need for my MVP is an impact on the pennant race. I never liked the idea of A-Rod winning MVP while playing for the last place Rangers in 2003. He should receive consideration in that case, but the award should have been given to either Jorge Posada or Manny.

Fortunately, there is one statistic that helps to seal the deal when it comes to a player's impact with the bat and glove on a winning ballclub. That statistic is Win Shares. A jumble of offensive metrics is used to create Batting WS. A jumble of defensive metrics are used to create Defensive WS. Each team's Pythagorean Win Total is used to make these numbers, reflecting the appropriate imbalance in team success. For MVP I like this metric. It doesn't tell you who the best player is, but rather which player is most responsible for the success of the best teams. That suits my personal sensibilities in terms of awarding the MVP trophy. Let's take a look.

The Top 10 Total WS players are as follows:

1. Joe Mauer (22)
2. Derek Jeter (22)
3. Manny Ramirez (22)
4. Carlos Guillen (20)
5. Jim Thome (19)
6. David Ortiz (19)
7. Travis Hafner (19)
8. Justin Morneau (19)
9. Curtis Granderson (19)
10. Jason Giambi (18)
11. Ivan Rodriguez (18)
12. Carl Crawford (18)
13. Miguel Tejada (18)

Before I go any further, I want to add that the rankings exist this way for a lot of reasons. Win Shares takes into account some rough "clutch" hitting metrics, a team's under or over-performance according to the team's projected Pythagorean Wins, and some situational numbers as well. In essence, a guy gets rewarded for helping his team do better than the predictions,and for producing in "high leverage" situations. If you're interested in all the data and analysis you can research Win Shares a bit more on your own.

Where does this leave us? I'm ready to choose my MVP at this point, based on a heavy dose of Win Shares, a sprinkle of VORP, and a little peripheral vision on character, intangibles, and contributions to the team's 2006 storyline. Right away, Vernon Wells is gone. He's not among the leaders I've listed in Win Shares, although he's close at 17. I'll also go ahead and eliminate Thome and Ortiz. Both of them take a backseat to Hafner in raw offensive production at DH, but neither of them pass him in the Win Shares or VORP analysis. In addition, Ortiz has a teammate that's better in every measurable way. That leaves Hafner, Jeter, Mauer, and Manny Ramirez.

As much as it pains me to do so, I will go ahead and cut Travis Hafner. Despite his big numbers, he's on the worst team of the bunch. Manny Ramirez' production with the bat is close enough that his impact on a very good Boston club is more impressive than Hafner's similar contribution from DH on a bad team. Manny, Mauer, and Jeter.

It's interesting that these three players are also the top 3 in Win Shares. I didn't plan it that way, but now that I check the list, it doesn't contradict my logic. How to separate these guys? Manny is the best hitter. Mauer plays the toughest defensive position and is 2nd among these players in virtually all the metrics. Jeter is tops in VORP among these 3 and plays on the best ballclub. Okay I have my decision.

3rd place goes to Derek Jeter. He could easily leapfrog both of the guys ahead of him and win MVP, but he is surrounded by the best talent and features the lowest OPS and RC27 of the 3. If he continues his production until the end of the year and either of the other players falters a bit, he'll win it for sure.

2nd place goes to Manny Ramirez. I really wanted to give it to him, but he's such a bad fielder and is overshadowed by his more dramatic teammate. The Red Sox are in 2nd now, and are in serious danger of missing the playoffs. With a league average player at his position, there's no doubt in my mind that the Sox would finish below the Blue Jays in the AL East. That alone should win him the award. If he won, I couldn'r argue. It's that close.

In the end I give the AL MVP to Joe Mauer. It was a tough choice. The Twins have been the best team in baseball since breaking their last 4 game losing streak on June 8th. Their record since that time is 40-11 and they've turned around a season that looked like it was about to flame out before the Spring Training enthusiasm died out. Big parts of this success have been Francisco Liriano's emergence, Johan Santana straightening out his early season funk, and the health of Justin Morneau. No player has had a bigger impact on this amazing story than Joe Mauer who is currently the AL leader in average by .017 over Derek Jeter. He would be the 1st catcher to win the batting title in the American League....EVER.

In the end, any of these 3 players could win the award under the right circumstances. I'll have to revist this debate when the season comes to an end to sort out the final data and analysis. If the Sox and Twins drop out of the playoffs, with the White Sox beating them out, Jeter may be the right choice. If the Red Sox can overcome their recent collapse and make the playoffs, or win the AL East outright, Manny surely deserves it. If the Twins win the wild card and Mauer takes home the batting crown, he's a no-brainer to me. Both Thome and Ortiz still have an outside shot to factor in this race, but I think the original question at Boston Dirt Dogs has been answered. Yes, Derek Jeter is a threat to Big Papi for MVP. Actually, the question should either be, "Is Big Papi a threat to Jeter for MVP?" or, "Is Jeter a threat to Manny for MVP?"

That's it for today. Good luck King of New York. May your sinker sink, and the White Sox balls in play stay on the ground. See you tomorrow. Go Yanks!

COH Grab Bag

The Yankees are making me very happy recently. Things are looking up and we've managed to squeeze a 2 game lead on the Red Sox (3 in the loss). The win today was a perfect remedy to the one hit fizzle against Chad Loewen, and the flameout by the Red Stockings bullpen helped to make things even better. On top of all that, my wife and I bought an HDD recorder/DVD burner this weekend, so I can record and watch all the Yankee games that I miss while I'm at work. This week there is a full slate of games on the NHK schedule, as the Yanks take on Iguchi and the White Sox. Oh happy day!!

Yesterday's little rant against the Devil Rays, Joe Maddon, and the notion that anyone on Earth would hit Travis Lee cleanup paid off, as the belabored first baseman went 1-5 with a big 8th inning home run in the rally to snuff the Red Sox from contention. Thanks Travis. You can go back to sucking now.

I decided that I'd look at a couple of random minor league things today, as a change of pace. I've been particularly interested in the Gulf Coast Yankees since the Amateur Draft and the International Signing Period. The guys I want to watch are Jesus Montero, who will join the team next year, and Dellin Betances of Grand Street, Brooklyn fame. Montero is on the radar for later on, but Betances is a 6'9" Christmas present from the 8th round of the draft. The potential signing bonus apparently scared off a lot of teams, but you know what that means for us. Home grown talent.

Betances has sprung into action after finishing his high school career only months ago. In 4 appearances, all starts, with the GCL Yankees Betances has thrown 9 innings and sports a 2.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and has 9 strikeouts. That's a really small sample, but you have to like what you see. The potential is tantalizing, and it appears that he's going to carry over his success as a New York high schooler and Team USA representative into the pros. Keep an eye out for this kid. In 5 years I'd love to see Matsuzaka, Hughes, and Betances at the front of our rotation.

The other minor league note I wanted to pass along was an update on Kazuo Matsui's status in the Colorado Rockies system. It's not really Yankees related, but he was a lightning rod in the New York papers for his awful defense, weak bat, and frequent injuries. He was an All-Star shortstop in Japan and a regular MVP candidate. Failure was predictable for Tsutyoshi Shinjo when the Mets gambled on him, as he was nothing more than a mediocre ballplayer over here. Kaz was coming on the heels of the Yankees success story with Hideki Matsui (no relation) and figured to be a nice addition to a young ballclub. It didn't pan out, and I still scratch my head at just how bad he has been. I never thought he'd be a star on the level of Ichiro or Godzilla, but I also never thought he'd be a AAA second baseman in the Rockies organization. Hard to imagine.

It's to his credit that he still clings to his Major League dream. He could have said, "F-it. I'm going back to Japan", and reclaimed his status as an elite player, but he seems genuinely interested in making it in the Majors. Again, scratching my head that Iguchi, Johjima, and Taguchi have all made nice names for themselves in the States and Kaz is a mediocre farmhand. In Japan he was a career .309/.361/.486 player and was blistering between 2000 and 2002 when he posted three consectuive years of excellent numbers. He was 25, 26, 27 years old then, in his peak years of production. The respective OPSs in that stretch were .861, 1.006, and .914. See for yourself. Let's look at his numbers in his current stint in Colorado.

In 18 games and 63 ABs with the AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox, Kazuo Matsui sports a line of .286/.352/.365 with one homer, 8 RBIs, and 16 runs scored. He has 6 walks and 12 strikeouts which tells me he still can't hit. What's the market these days for a light hitting middle infielder with defensive issues? I'm guessing that he opens the 2007 season in training camp with Seibu again. Meanwhile, his Mets' replacement, Jose Valentin, has 12 homers and is hitting around .290 to date.

That's it for today. Keep it rollin' Yanks. See you tomorrow.

One Hit Wonders

I'm not going to even discuss the last Yankee game, because it's one of those games worth throwing on the video scrap heap. Nothing insightful can be ascertained from analyzing that complete fluke of a performance. Rookie pitcher nearly blanks best offense in MLB. That's a one hit wonder like Rick Astley, and it's best forgotten.

The Red Sox did us the favor of spitting the bit on their chance to tie us for the AL East lead, no thanks to the world's dumbest manager, Joe Maddon. He looks like a nice grandfatherly type guy, who probably enjoys fishing and bouncing little kids on his knee. He spins yarns about ghost ships and pirates, and roasts marshmallows with Cub Scouts. Undoubtedly, he goes carolling on Christmas Eve, and gives candy apples on Halloween. He looks like that kind of guy. The thing is I can't think of anything more stupid in the entire sport of baseball than playing Travis Lee everyday. Wait....I take that back. I can't think of anything more stupid than hitting Travis Lee in the cleanup spot, while playing him everyday!

That's exactly what Joe Maddon has done since July 29th when Ty Wiggington broke his hand against the Yankees. In all but one contest since that time, the Devil Rays have featured Travis Lee's staggeringly bad .207/.298/.338 line in the 4th spot of the lineup. It was bad enough that he hit 5th for the most part prior to that fateful day. In fairness to Lee, he has picked it up a bit for Maddon since that bold move. He has shown his ability to get hot with the bat and carry a team by hitting .250/.357/.375 with a homer and 3RBIs in 8 games as a cleanup man. Sweet. If you throw in the other game, in which he resumed hitting 5th for a day, he is .250/.344/.464 with 2 homers and 5 RBIs over 9 games. Look out Pujols, Travis Lee is the new sheriff in town.

I don't know why it makes me so mad that a Major League franchise would be this stupid, but it does. People want to absolutley rip the Yankees every chance they get for spending big money on their team. People put a bullseye on the Bombers and cry like they've got thumb screws on about how unfair it all is. When the Devil Rays, poster boys for the "have nots" in MLB along with Kansas City, are so blatantly clueless as to play a guy this bad at the sport's premier power position, you have to shake your head. Don't get on the Yankees until you've first pointed your finger at this kind of mismanagement.

Big Travis makes a staggering $2,450,000 for his 2006 "efforts" and people have the nerve to complain about the Yankees. For $2,450,000 you could do a whole lot better than this guy. Doug Mientkiewicz make $1,850,000 for the Royals. He's hitting .283/.361/.411 and has a better glove than Lee. $2,487,500 would have bought you Ben Broussard this season, and he's produced .314/.355/.514 with 14 home runs on the year. $365,000 could land you Chris Shelton who is now at AAA after cooling off from his hot start. He's still put up .277/.343/.477 for the Tigers. Shea Hillenbrand was out there along with his .291/.329/.463 line if they were willing to pay his $5,800,000 salary pro-rated for the rest of the year. I know they had no reason to add his payroll to their last place club, but at some point you have to take your team seriously enough to spend some money.

Especially when your firstbaseman has contributed fewer runs at his position than any other player in the entire Major Leagues. Lee has a -25.7 PMLV rating, which means that he has cost his team almost 26 runs this year against what the average firstbaseman produces for his team. To give you some perspective on that number, Albert Pujols is the top rated first baseman in PMLV at 37.6, which means that he has contributed 63.3 more runs at first base than Lee on the year as compared to the average. Remember, they both play everyday. The average firstbaseman would be at zero, so I looked at the guys considered average (and 26 runs better than Lee) and came up with this group. Lyle Overbay, Rob Quinlan, Craig Wilson, Phil Nevin, Chris Shelton, Sean Casey and some very big names are all around 3 runs above or below the margin. I eliminated the big names like Todd Helton because he makes $11 million on the year and is out of the question for the Rays. The guys I listed are reasonably paid and within the budget for the Tampa club.

If the Rays really wanted to try something, go with a replacement player from AAA. In fact, go with Kevin Witt. At Durham this year, in 413 ABs he is .295/.364/.596 with 32 home runs!!!!!!!!! What the F? Now I'm even more pissed. Lee is 31, and Witt is 30. Lee makes over $2 million a year, and Witt is on a minor league contract. Lee is awful, and Witt is absolutely tearing up AAA. Talk about the definition of replacement player. They have a perfect short term fix, and they let the 30 year old minor leaguer rot without even seeing if he's better than their current bum. Ugh.

Anyway, that's my rant for today. Don't let the Yankees lose like this again or you may be subjected to more posts about my personal baseball frustrations! See you tomorrow. Go Yanks!

Wilson Philips: Release Me

Another win for the Yankees. This feels good right now. This is the kind of run we could have had if Matsui and Sheffield hadn't gone down, and Cano had stayed healthy. Let's just hope we can put a little more distance between us and the Red Sox before the start of September. Wouldn't that be sweet.

The pitching has been responsible for a lot of our current success, and once again Randy Johnson proved to be the weak link in the rotation. His last disaster of a start was a smear on an otherwise strong pitching run. This start was also a disappointment, as the Intensive Care Unit couldn't hold onto a 3-0 lead. Of course he held the Orioles at 4 so we could come back and win it (thanks Jorge), but this is not the guy we thought we'd have at the front of our rotation, dominating the opposition. Will we see him again before the end of the year? How many times? Playoffs? He's the Big Question Mark right now.

I wanted to talk about Craig Wilson in this post, since I've dedicated more than enough time to Bobby Abreu the last couple of days. I really like what I see from Wilson so far, and I hope we hang onto him. The dilemma that we face is what to do with Andy Phillips. A lot of us screamed and yelled to have him included on the roster for 2006. His bat was supposed to be a big part of the youth movement in the Bronx, and many of us thought he'd hit when given the chance to play everyday. That really hasn't happened with any consistency, and aside from a strong run in June and early July, he has shown little power and an awful eye at the plate.

Phillips currently sports a line of .242/.275/.404 in 223 ABs and has only 11 walks to go with 47 strikeouts. In fact, Phillips ranks 38th out of 40 Major League first baseman with at least 100 plate appearances in VORP at -5.5, with only Lance Niekro(SF) and Travis Lee(TB) below him. Craig Wilson is 23rd with a 9.0 VORP. From what I read, Phillips and Wilson are about equal in defensive metrics, so it seems like a no brainer that Andy's time with the Yankees is over. Torre won't let that happen though. He'll keep playing him I bet.

It looks like neither Matsui nor Sheffield is all that close to returning, so the decision about Phillips is probably still a month away. I still see no reason to play him any further, but if he's on the bench he's got to get in a ballgame or two sometime. I suggest we think about using him only in games at Yankee Stadium, at night, against right handed pitchers from the AL Central. Check the numbers for yourself. The rest of the games should belong to Craig Wilson.

Bubba Crosby was DFAed to make room for an extra bullpen arm. The way Torre uses bullpen arms, it make sense. Scott Proctor, Ron Villone, and Kyle Farnsworth might actually die on the mound this year at this pace. Crosby apparently wasn't happy about the move and stormed out in a huff. All I have to say about that is, I understand how he feels, but give me a break. The feeling he has is completely natural. You dedicated your blood and sweat to the team since Day 1, and you hoped for a more consistent shot at contributing to the lineup. The thing is, in 205 Major League games (all but 9 with the Bombers) Crosby produced a line of .216/.255/.300 in 250 ABs. Crosby has posted an .810 OPS in 253 games at AAA to date. That's a good OPS for a Major League outfielder, but clearly he was unable to even approach those numbers in his opportunity. Consider that Aaron Guiel posted at nice .840 OPS in his time at the Major League level this year, and he got sent down...bye, bye Bubba. Shut up and find another opportunity.

Moose against his former club tomorrow. Keep the line moving fellas. See you tomorrow. Go Yanks!

OBP and Pitch Counts

So people have been whining like little crybabies about how Bobby Abreu's power has disappeared. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah! I, for one, never saw Abreu as a slugger. His power wasn't among the attributes that attracted me to his game. Sure, 25 home runs is a wonderful thing. Run production that is generated from one swing is the most efficient kind of production there is in baseball. It's not everything though.

I've been listening to Chris Russo's interviews with various baseball people via the WFAN website the last few days. He's been leading his interviewees with the statement, "Abreu seems to be missing some intangible in his game." Then he proceeds to ask them, "Don't you think so too?" I wouldn't call that so much an interview as a pleading, desperate need to have someone agree with you. If he really wanted to get the true feeling of his interview subject he'd ask, "What are the perceived weaknesses in Bobby Abreu's game?" If "intangibles" was among the list of things perceived to be lacking in his performance, the follow up questions might be, "Is he a trouble maker in the clubhouse? Does he demand special treatment? Does he dog it on the field? Does he frequently experience lapses in concentration?"

The problem is, there are no "intangible"-related issues with Bobby Abreu. Just as intangibles are used to boost Derek Jeter's value in the eyes of those who can't rely on statistics to tell the story, intangibles are used by those looking to poke holes in a guy where the statistics aren't enough to condemn him. I actually do believe in intangible qualities. I think some guys have a nose for the game, and an effect on their ballclub that transcends on field performance. Let me qualify that by saying that intangibles NEVER make up for failures in on-field performance when evaluating the impact of a player on winning ballgames. They rarely impact losing either. The late 70's version of the "Bronx Zoo", among other prominent champions, show us that a bunch of selfish jackasses and a poisonous clubhouse are no more than an uncomfortable work environment when the performance on the field is good.

Chris Russo hates the Yankees, as do a lot of other people, and never fails to bait his on air guests into making anti-Yankee pronouncements even if it was never their intention to do so. He's especially bad when Mike Francesa is out of town. Such is sports talk radio....

The reason I chose this topic for today's post is that we can already see significant tangible and intangible effects on the quality of the Yankees' play since the arrival of Bobby Abreu. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that he's the magic pill that has saved our season. That would be giving him too much credit over a meager 3 game sample. Let's consider this:

Prior to today's win over Toronto, the Yankees were the 2nd best team in all of baseball in On Base Percentage at .359, while the Red Sox are in first at .363. Adding Abreu's .412 lifetime OBP and subtracting the combination of Guiel(.320), Crosby (.255), and the 2006 version of Bernie Williams (.327) we have done something extremely difficult for other teams to overcome. We get more guys on base, increasing our chances of scoring runs, and prolong innings. We also prolong innings and wear out pitchers by showing a good eye and seeing a lot of pitches.

In this piece, written by Al Bethke in 2003, we see the effect on OPS of seeing a lot of pitches per PA. Among the best guys by position at that time were Jorge Posada at catcher, and Bobby Abreu in RF. Likewise this piece from Baseball Prospectus in 2002 shows us clearly how On Base Percentage is positively affected by longer at bats. Currently, the only player in the Majors that sees as many pitches per plate appearance as Bobby Abreu(4.45) is Kevin Youkilis(4.45). Jason Giambi is 4th at 4.35, and Johnny Damon is 34th at 4.01 pitcher per PA.

This statistic is not the be-all, end-all to wins and losses. Nor is it the the mark of a good hitter in all cases. My point is not to draw a straight line between batting success and seeing a lot of pitches, but rather on the overall "intangible" effect that this phenomenon has on a team. I put "intangible" in quotes because it's something beyond the normal realm of "tangibles" like RBIs and HRs, that people like Russo seem to be fixated on.

Tying this discussion into today's game will help me make my point and bring things into focus a bit. We had the opportunity today to see Abreu and Giambi in the lineup together, with Damon hitting before them. All 3 of these guys are expert at their positions in wearing out pitchers. The Blue Jays threw 180 pitches in 9 innings today for a whopping 20 pitches per inning! Blue Jay pitchers faced 40 Yankee batters, averaging 4.5 pitches per plate appearance. If you'll remember, that mark leads the list of individual batters in the Majors on the year and the Yankees did it as a TEAM against the Jays. Marcum alone averaged 4.7 pitches per batter in his 2.2 innings pitched. Brian Taller threw 6.3 per batter in 1.1 innings of work. Remember, this was in 97 degree weather. The heat was so bad they were handing out free water at the Stadium.

To contrast the Jays ineptitude against the patient Yankee hitters, Cory Lidle was magnificent in tossing 6 innings of 1 run ball. He faced 25 batters and threw 80 pitches for an average of 3.2 per PA. Scott Proctor labored at 7 pitches per PA by throwing 28 to 4 guys. Ouch. Probably see him for 3 innings tomorrow too.

So, to answer Chris Russo's valuable insight about Bobby Abreu, he is not missing an intangible. He's bringing something to the team that will help them to get into the bullpens of opposing teams before the paint is dry on the national anthem (whatever that means) and we all know what a lineup of stars can do to a bullpen in this league. So much for the Mad Dog's Big Book on Winning Baseball.

The Yanks took over 1st all by their lonesome today as the wonderful Red Sox pitching failed them again, and no magical, walk-off, ESPN highlight reel, Papi-tastic, Beantown Bonanza, Cowboy Up, Bunch of Idiots goodness was to be found. Javy Lopez is set to replace Jason Varitek as the resident sub-par Red Stockings backstop, but should help the lineup by replacing Varitek's awful .243/.331/.411 line with a stellar .265/.314/.423 line of his own. Nice going Sox.

Speaking of pitch counts, this from Japanese Baseball Daily:

"After going all the way in a 15 inning scoreless tie Monday, Sendai Ikuei High ace Yoshinori Sato went the distance in a 6-2 victory over Tohoku High Tuesday. He threw 374 pitches over the course of the two days. He was clocked at 88mph."

See you tomorrow. Go Yanks!

King of New York

Another day at the ballpark. The Yankees vanquish the Blue Jays by a nice comfortable score of 7-2. The story of this game? Chien Ming Wang.

I don't know if it's possible for me to write anything else about Wang that I haven't said already. At 26 years old, he figures to be a huge part of our rotation for up to 10 years, should he keep this dominating sinker in his arsenal. Today's ballgame featured an astounding 16-4 GO/AO ratio that boggles the mind. Toronto is an excellent offensive ballclub that couldn't do anything with Wang. He took a shutout through 8 full innings of work before handing it over to "Everyday" Ron Villone, who closed things out after allowing a Troy Glaus 2-run homer to blemish the clean Yankees pitching line. So be it. Wang was not to be denied. He now stands at 13-4 and has lowered his ERA to a very nice 3.58 with his last 22.1 innings of 1 run pitching. Fox Sports (shudder) ranks him at #19 in their "Ranking the Aces" list. The many Yankee fans in Taiwan that visit my blog are undoubtedly double-happy right now as the home team won thanks to their national hero. They'll tell you that the Chinese character for "Wang" means "King", and that's what we have in our young stud pitcher. Hello Taiwan!

Alex Rodriguez went 3-5 today with 2RBIs. Jeter and Posada went yard. Abreu and Wilson were a combined 4-9 (.444/.444/.555) making Cash Money look even better day by day. Yanks still in 1st. No thanks to Cleveland.

The Indians have held two 9th inning leads the last couple of days and allowed the Fenway ghosts to spook them into coughing up the victory both times. That honor goes to resident suckball pitcher, Fausto Carmona. Thanks to his ineptitude, the Yankees do not enjoy a 2 game lead in the AL East. Get back to the basement Fausto. There's cleanup work to be done down there.

In good news, Hideki Matsui is getting close to a rehab stint in Tampa and a quick return to NY. That is, if the doctors okay batting practice. This guy is a gamer and I'm betting he'll be back sooner than you think.

That's it for today. Yanks are on a roll and Boston figures to drop some of their next few games to even out the karmic universe. Lidle up next. See you tomorrow. Go Yanks!

Yankee Notes: August 2nd, 2006

Well, the game is over and the Yankees have won. In Bobby Abreu's Yankee debut, we saw a lot of nice things happen. He drew a 9 pitch walk to set up Bernie Williams base-clearing double that basically won the game for us. He made a nice catch at the wall. A-Rod had a couple of hits and a steal, although he was thrown out at the plate when he came in standing up. Jeter was very good, setting up a couple of runs with 2 stolen bases. He's now stolen 23 bases on the year with only 2 CS. That's a 92% success rate and it's also outstanding!

Jeter is an 80% career base stealer, but this year seems to be rounding out as his finest season altogether. By all accounts 1999 looks like the best of Derek Jeter for a single season, when he hit 24 home runs, OPSed at .989, posted 219 hits, drove in 102, and scored 134 runs. This season has Jeter at .916 OPS with 65 RBIs through 98 games. He has also scored 71 to date. At this rate, he's looking at around 225+ hits, 105 RBIs and 115 runs scored. He's also on pace for 35+ steals at a very high percentage. What a year for the Captain. Yeah, his defense is suspect, but he more than makes up for it with the bat as his VORP is tops among SSs. All that and a new scent.

Speaking of Jeter's new fragrance....can you please stop. Baseball players are supposed to smell like crap. The best a baseball player is supposed to smell is after they've been rubbed down with Tiger Balm, or maybe after they hit the shower with some Irish Spring. "Fragrances" are for sexually ambiguous rock stars, pretty boy actors, and the cast of Queer Eye for the Straight Guy. I know I'm showing a conservative, old-timey, way of thinking when I say this, but I can't help it. Jeter is one of the greatest players in the history of our team, and legendary with his dating prowess for what that's worth, but could he get more effeminate with his new perfume. Ugh.

Anyway, his legs (pretty as they may be) helped us to take over 1st place by percentage points today, as CC Sabathia tossed a gem against the Red Sox. The Beantowners are now without Trot Nixon and Jason Varitek, thanks to injuries, and Mike Lowell fouled a ball off his foot and had to leave the game. The pitching rotation is without Tim Wakefield now, and has to rely on a lot of patchwork to field a starter these days. I like our chances and I feel real good after the close of business on Tuesday.

I want to touch on three Japanese baseball items today.

1. Tokyo Yomiuri Giants firstbaseman Seung Yeop Lee homered twice last night in a game against Hanshin ace and very good player, Igawa. The second home run was his 400th career between Korea and Japan and also gave him 33 on the season in 2006. That leads all hitters and keeps him on pace to break Oh's single season record of 55. (Lee had 56 in Korea, playing for Samsung, to break the single season "Asian" record.) I'll write another "Japanese Power" update soon to give you some perspective on his season so far.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports wrote a piece about next season's free agent class a few days back, ranking Daisuke Matsuzaka at #1, and included the Lion King at #9. The Yankees are rumored to be interested in Lee, entering the mix well behind the Mariners, Angels, and Dodgers who have had their looks at him and passed over the last couple of years. Something to keep an eye on.

2. Daisuke Matsuzaka gets the start tonight against Bobby Valentine's Chiba Lotte Marines. He's been the talk of the town in some parts recently as the MLB season enters the home stretch and teams start talking about what to do in 2007. A lot of teams are interested, and Matsuzaka Watch has become one stop for all-encompassing info on the ace of late. We've been linked to in articles from the Talented Mr. Roto (pay only) and on bulletin boards around the web, including most recently some Orioles fans with pipe dreams. Check back for info on his latest start, and take a look at the You Tube video clip I posted most recently from his WBC Championship Game performance.

3. Last, something interesting from Japanese Baseball Daily on the outrageous pitch counts that Japanese players are subjected to. The Koshien Summer Tournament is about to begin, and with it legends are made. It's a national spectacle for its enthusiasm, dedication, effort, and drama. It's also a place where young pitchers go to die. Check it out.

"Manager Sadaharu Oh was reportedly overjoyed Sunday, as his alma mater, Waseda Jitsugyo High School, grabbed a Koshien Tournament berth with a 5-4 victory over powerhouse Nichidaisan High School in an 11 inning thriller during a prefectural tournament final. However, Waseda starter Yuki Saito was left in to throw 221 pitches. When is the Japan High School Baseball Federation going to get a handle on this kind of pitcher abuse?

Now what Saito experienced isn't uncommon. Daisuke Matsuzaka threw even more pitches than that in a 17 inning affair while he was at Yokohama High.

But the all timer for me was back in 1935 during a Koshien qualifying tournament in Shimane Prefecture. Taisha Chugakkou (this was during the time when Japanese junior highg schools were six years; they split up the junior high and high schools just after WWII) Ota Chugakkou. The aces of both teams went all the way in a, get this, 23 inning tie game! So it was obviously ruled a standoff after it became too dark to play and it was replayed the following day. Ota's ace was held out of the replay, but Taisha's number one guy retook the hill and went the distance, wait for it...in a 12 inning sayonara LOSS. So this kid threw all 35 innings over the course of two days. It isn't known how many pitches the Taisha hurler dealt, but it had to be well over 400.

In modern times, in a northern Japan tournament final in 1951, the aces of both Morioka Number One High School and Aomori High tossed 24 inning complete games in a 1-0 result.

There is also an instance where another ace went the full monty in a 25 inning contest that produced a result in 1948.

Now remember, those are just regional tournament games.

In the Koshien Tournament itself, there was a doozy in the semifinals back in summer of 1933. Akashi Chugakkou and Chukyo Shogyo High School went 25 innings before it was won by Chukyo on a bases loaded dribbler in the 25th. Both pitchers went the distance, Chukyo's throwing 336 pitches and then, you aren't going to believe it, STARTED AGAIN THE NEXT DAY! Amazingly, he tossed a two hitter against powerful Heian Chugakkou in the tournament final to claim the Koshien crown."

See you tomorrow. Go Yanks!

You're very very sleepy.....

I'm more and more of a fan of this trade deadline as it all has time to sink in. What hypnotism book was Brian Cashman reading that allowed him to acquire:

Bobby Abreu
(leads MLB in walks, .427 OBP)

Cory Lidle
(solid back end of the rotation starter)

and Craig Wilson
(outstanding utility player with .306 avg/RISP)

for a combination of players including:

C.J. Henry
(athletic, but struggling with baseball related skills)

Matt Smith
(27 year-old converted AAA reliever)

Jesus Sanchez
(expendable catching prospect at rookie level)

Carlos Monasterios
(solid baby pitcher with big question marks)

Shawn Chacon
(miserable 7.00 ERA, 1.8 WHIP)

We kept Hughes and Tabata. Wang and Cano are in the fold. Melky stays in left. The Red Sox did nothing. Matsui and Sheffield can take their time getting back. Bernie goes to the bench. Guiel and Bubba are out of the mix. Proctor is still around. Ponson is out of the mix. Phillips can go to the bench. What's not to like? Essentially, we subtracted nothing and ended up with the following new toys.

Bobby Abreu's VORP over the last 7+ years (MLB rank in parenthesis) is:

1999 64.3 (13)
2000 60.9 (25)
2001 54.0 (29)
2002 60.0 (17)
2003 43.0 (39)
2004 73.5 (7)
2005 47.0 (28)
2006 25.0 (57)

Further proof of his superior play was contibuted yesterday by mars2001:

PROOF (3 year split data):

AVG/OBP/SLG
RISP (runners in scoring position):
Abreu .329/.450/.566
Jeter .288/.380/.405
ARod .273/.381/.482
Giambi .273/.443/.535

Men on w/2 outs:
Abreu .324/.470/.540
Jeter .307/.395/.449
ARod .280/.381/.553
Giambi .230/.414/.473

Close & Late:
Abreu .288/.431/.464
Jeter .249/.352/.392
ARod .276/.392/.553
Giambi .237/.414/.460

The fact that this guy has underperformed this season, and his team is in a downward spiral, contributed to the salary dump that Gillick performed for our benefit. The fact is, it was one of the greatest steals in trade deadline history. Still in his prime, Abreu is one of the best players in the entire sport. He's been tested in a very tough Philadelphia market and ranks as one of the best players in the long history of that franchise. Statistically he is top 10 in virtually every major category. If Larry Bowa says you play the game the right way, you play the game the right way. Bowa is a hot-head in the mold of Sweet Lou and will destroy a guy for not approaching the game properly. All the mess about Abreu dogging it, or shying away from the wall, is so overblown it's laughable. Bowa knows it when he sees it, and this guy is going to be an impact player.

Baseball Prospectus wrote this about Cory Lidle in 2005:

"Lidle is durable and keeps the ball down, which makes him a reasonable back-of-the-rotation fit for a team with a power-friendly ballpark and an offense good enough to win games on its own. The Phillies re-signed him for two years and $6.3 million. That's not a terrible price compared to some recent doozies, but pitchers with this sort of strikeout rate tend not to age well."

That sounds like exactly what the Yankees need right now, doesn't it? Durable, great. Keeps the ball down, perfect. Reasonable back-of-the-rotation fit for a high scoring team, that's us. Won't be around for a long time, no problem. In fact, his current 13.8 VORP would rank him as the third starter on the ballclub behind Mussina and Wang. That speaks more to RJ's struggles than anything else, but it also means he'll help.

Craig Wilson for Shawn Chacon is a very funny punchline to a joke. I'm not sure what that joke is, but Cash Money does. Jettisoning Chacon with a little thank you and a box of chocolates for last season feels really good right about now. Getting a superb utility player with a live bat for him feels like getting away with murder. No Maas sponsors his page at Baseball Reference, and upon further examination of his similarity comparisons, I found that Trot Nixon is #5 on the list of players at age 28. How you like me now Boston? We just added Trot Nixon to our team for Shawn Chacon. Don't you guys have him starting on your club and hitting 5th? I know, he's on the DL and you replaced him with David Wells. Wellsie went 4.2 innings today with 8 hits, 2 walks, and 8 earned runs. Looking good Beantown. Nice work at the deadline Theo. Keep up the good work.