Blogger be Damned Update

I'm back from the wild wild West. I don't mean Cali or Arizona, but rather the relative West as is is situated to my current home in Japan.

Blogger technical issues are cramping my style, but I won't let that stop me. The Canyon of Heroes march must go on. To quote the Lord Rakim, "It's been a long time. I shouldn't have left you, without a strong to step to...."

What's happened in the 2 weeks since I last worked my magic at COH. Lightning style, we'll talk about the Bombers fortunes.....

1. As I predicted at Bronx Banter, the Red Sox and Yankees sandwiched the All Star Break with drubbings of the Chicago White Sox. Something told me that the White Stockings weren't up to the task of taking on the AL East, and my suspicions were right. I think they're an outstanding team with good pitching that has been masquerading as great pitching. Garcia, Buehrle, Contreras, Garland, and Vazquez are all serviceable starters that can dominate any game they enter on the right night, but I'd be hard pressed to call any of them as good as Schilling, Johnson, or Mussina. Beckett is on top of his game right now too, and the ChiSox are not. The White Sox 5 starters all post WHIPs in the mid 1.3's and have batting average againsts of .270-.275 or so. Contreras is the lone exception, but he was long overdue for a regression to the mean.

2. I went to the Seattle vs. Yankees matchup of Unit against Meche. Meche was brilliant, throwing a perfect game into the 5th inning. Unit was also stellar, striking out 11 over 8. Both guys threw into the 100s and Unit probably was in a little too long at 129 pitches. When Torre came out to talk to him he convinced the manager to leave him in and promptly disposed of Richie Sexson for his 1tth K. The crowd gave him a nice ovation, and the only thing between him and a victory was the dominating plate performance of Ichiro Suzuki who scored all 3 Seattle runs. That team is so far from good it's scary. What a waste of an All World talent. It's unfortunate that Ichiro will likely spend the next 5 or 6 years on a poor or mediocre ballclub. It wouldn't surprise me if the Mariners never made the playoffs again, while he was on the team. That division is leaving the Mariners behind, and the AL East and Central 1 and 2's are too strong to concede the wildcard to the West.

3. A-Rod has been absolutely putrid. I have been defending him and supporting him, but he's only gotten worse. That doesn't faze me though. He'll be fine, and once he's weathered this storm in his career will carry the team at some point late in the year. That will be his "clutch" redemption and you'll see the papers and fans finally say something positive about the guy. They'll still be wrong for booing him, and the press will still be a bunch of neanderthals for suggesting the Yankees trade him, but at least they'll be off his back.....for awhile.

4. The trade deadline is approaching, and I don't expect the Yanks to make a big splash. Matsui will be back mid-August, and Sheff may return in September. Melky continues to improve, even as Andy Phillips has been sliding below replacement level. The pitching could use an overall boost, but I think you'll see Cashman pick up on some mediocre 5th starter somewhere to eat innings for the club. Ponson was one such guy, but he needs to try a little harder. In the playoffs that player won't factor into the outcome much, as we'll still be leaning on Moose, Unit, and Wang (which sound like a roster of porno All Stars). The bullpen saga of Octavio Dotel is what it is, and I would also doubt that we'll see anything more than a marginal talent added. My suprise, Christmas in July, trade would be a couple of 2nd tier minor leaguers and cash for John Lieber. The Yanks and Phils have had dialogue about Abreu for sure, so you know Cashman has the phone number.

5. On my trip to the US, I dropped by Coliseum Books across from the NY Public Library, and bought two Baseball Prospectus books. I saw autographed copies of Alex Belth's "Stepping Up", and smiled to myself. I'll have to get an autograph on my copy when I see him. I did buy an autographed copy of "Mind Game" and squinted to make out Cliff Corcoran's squiggly signature. Both books are must reads, and I'll try to do a couple of reviews during the next off day, if I can. I also bought "Baseball Between the Numbers" which is next on my list.

6. The Yankees hired an associate scout by the name of Shoichi Kida, who is a former Japanese ball player, and high school teammate of Daisuke Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka has been tinkering with a two seam fastball to add to his already lethal arsenal and plans to unleash it on the 26th against Orix. He has been quoted as saying he has his eyes on the majors next year, and the perfect confluence of events seems to be pushing him to the Yankees. Let's not have a letdown.

7. I have debuted a new blog, dedicated to a 19 year old Japanese pitcher named Yu Darvish. His story is fascinating, and while he's not Major League ready or eligible, he's a guy to keep an eye on for the future. Please drop by Darvish Watch to support the blog, and keep yourself posted on this young phenom.

That's it for now. More later. My apologies again for the lack of photo support on all my blogs today. One day Blogger will get its head out of its backside and provide more reliable service. It is free after all, so we can only count our blessings. Go Yanks!

Blogger issues

I'm back everyone. I've been working hard on several pieces for you, but Blogger is imploding right now. Check back every so often for my updates, and hopefully I'l be able to get something out before too long. Hang in there folks.

Go Yanks!

COH Pre-Season Review

This may be the last post at COH for a while. I’m leaving Japan for the US in a couple of days, and I may not have great access to a computer. If I can blog while I’m in the States, I will. If not, take this lengthy look back at my pre-season predictions and milk it. I’ll be at the July 19th 1:00pm game against the Mariners, sitting about 5 rows back on the 1st baseline. I’ll be the big guy wearing the navy “Matsui” batting practice jersey, sitting next to a Japanese woman (my wife). If you see me, say hello. I’ll be back in Japan and blogging daily on the 25th of July.

Back in March I wrote an AL East season preview. Some of the predictions have been remarkably accurate, while others a little dodgy. I thought the All Star Break would be a good time to reflect back on my pre-season ideas and comment on some of the more profound insights and idiocy. Without further ado, let’s start with the MLB predictions. Here’s what I thought would shake out in the larger picture:

American League

East: Yankees
Central: White Sox
West: Athletics
Wild Card: Red Sox

AL Champs: Yankees
AL MVP: Derek Jeter
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana

Okay. Sure I was going to pick the Yankees to win the AL East. I still think we’ll win the division. Blind faith in the home team? Maybe, but they’re still 3rd or 4th in baseball in Pythagorean wins. A lot of season to go. The White Sox in the Central was a fairly standard idea too. The World Champs added Jim Thome. What’s not to like. No one could have seen Detroit coming, and while they will probably still win that division, how will their magical pitching hold up in the playoffs? At least they’ll be there. They have a puncher’s chance, if not more. The A’s looked good to me on paper with the always reliable pitching of Zito, Harden, Haren and company. No hitting though. They are lucky to be in first in that terrible division, and truth be told, I expect the Angels to pull off a huge second half and overtake them and the Rangers.

As for individual player awards, I think Santana is the AL Cy Young as of today, but his rookie teammate Francisco Liriano may just steal his thunder before it’s all over. I wouldn’t want to face that rotation right now. Jeter was my AL MVP pick. I thought he’d contend for the batting title back in the 2 hole, and with that spot in the order I thought he’d transform his leadoff numbers into greater runs and RBI production as well. He started the season driving in runs at a previously unheard of pace. Before he went out for a few games with an injury he was on a 120 RBI pace or something. He’s cooled off on the RBI front, but it also has a lot to do with the fact that the later innings see the bottom of the order hitting in front of him and fewer chances to drive baserunners home. He still may win the batting title, but MVP will go to a guy with more thunder in his bat, like Thome, Hafner, Ortiz, or Giambi.

National League

East: Mets
Central: Cardinals
West: Dodgers
Wild Card: Braves

NL Champs: Cardinals
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez

The only surprise among my NL predictions is that the Braves died such a quiet death. They still have a few good starters to challenge a weak National League, but they’ve underperformed, as have the Joneses and Marcus Giles. Jeff Francoeur was hideously bad to start the season and had to go gangbusters just to get back to respectability. It’s too late for them to turn it around now, and I’ll take Cincinnati to win the wild card. Why not?

The individuals are no-brainers. Pujols is the best player in either league, and Pedro is dominating. If he can get himself back healthy, I think he’ll make a better case for himself as the NL Cy Young. Right now…..today…..I think I’d give it to the Padres’ Chris Young, although I know Pedro will win out by October. He still has the lowest OBP Against among all starting pitchers in the NL.

World Series: New York Yankees defeat St. Louis Cardinals

This could still happen. The Yankees will need a healthy Matsui and/or Sheffield to get back the Fall Classic, plus better pitching from the Big Unit. St. Louis will need to outpitch the Mets in the NLCS to have a chance.

If I had to pick a World Series today, with a gun to my head, I’d probably go with the Angels against the Mets. I think the Angels havc sorted out their starting rotation issues with Jered Weaver looking like Cy Young, plus Guerrero hasn’t gotten hot yet. They have the best bullpen in all of baseball, and that counts in the post-season. The Mets are simply the class of a terrible NL. They are by far the best team and I think they have better front of the rotation pitching than the Cardinals. They also feature a far more well rounded lineup top to bottom.

AL East Preview

Predicted 2006 Order of Finish:
1. Yankees (97-65) (93-69)
2. Red Sox (92-70) (93-69)
3. Blue Jays (85-77) (87-75)
4. Devil Rays (72-90) (68-94)
5. Orioles (65-97) (71-91)

I stand by all of this, but I think the Yankees will come in at 93 wins instead of 97. The Pythagorean wins to date suggest this kind of pace. I’ve included the pace determined by Pythagorean Win Percentage in parenthesis next to the prediction above. I still think that the Rays will finish ahead of the Orioles. They’ve only recently had Baldelli, Cantu, and Gomes in the lineup together, and Huff is beginning to hit.

AL East MVP: Derek Jeter, SS-Yankees
AL East Cy Young: Roy Halladay, RHP-Blue Jays
AL East LVP: Corey Patterson, CF-Orioles
AL East Sigh Young: A.J. Burnett RHP, Blue Jays

So far the AL East MVP has been interesting. I’ll call the race as being between 3 players. Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Jason Giambi. All 3 of these guys has fueled the offense for their respective clubs, and all 4 have been nuclear at some point in the season. Right now it’s David Ortiz, so it’s tempting to pick him right out. Manny and Giambi each have a higher OPS than Big Papi though. I’m not swayed by the 9th inning fireworks that Ortiz sometimes produces. He’s still 3rd in OPS among these players and factoring in runners in scoring position, and RISP with 2 outs he’s also 3rd.

Both Manny Ramirez and Jason Giambi are statistically superior to Big Papi, despite the SportsCenter dramatics. In fact, the only place that Ortiz is a better player than Giambi or Ramirez this year is “close and late situations” where he is at a 1.054 OPS with 8 home runs in 52 ABs. Manny is .999 with 3 home runs in 38 ABs and Giambi is .821 with 3 homers in 32 at bats. I may have to give him the mid-season MVP for his overall play, including in big spots, but I think that Manny Ramirez is actually the more valuable player over the long haul.

Who is the AL East Cy Young? Is it Roy Halladay? I think it’s easy to say yes to that. He’s 12-2 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a .244 BAA so far. The Jays have hung in the division race and are looking strong. His teammate B.J. Ryan also looks unhittable and is deserving of some recognition. You could also look to Jonathan Papelbon in Boston. Without him the Red Sox would have suffered through a number of meltdowns by Keith Foulke who looks lost sometimes, and probably would find themselves in 2nd place. I’ll stick with Halladay, but you could look at either closer as well.

The AL East LVP was predicted to be Corey Patterson, who I still can’t stand. He’s turned in a fair season so far, and has a ridiculous 32 stolen bases through the halfway point. He therefore can’t be the LVP of the AL East. Alas. That honor should go to Travis Lee of the Rays. He plays almost everyday while sporting a line of .197/.281/.291/.571 starting at FIRST BASE!!!!!!!! Oh my sweet heaven, if there is a baseball God please strike Tampa’s front office with a lightning bolt and get them some sense. How does this guy play in 71 games, getting 200+ at bats with those numbers, and play one of the premier power positions in baseball? Incredible!

The AL East Sigh Young could be A.J. Burnett considering he caught Pavano-it is shortly after signing his big off-season deal. He’s looked okay in his few starts though and there may be hope for him yet. The rest of the list would include in reverse order, best to worst, Matt Clement (6.61 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, .291 BAA), Shawn Chacon (6.71, 1.81, .296), Bruce Chen (6.78, 1.79, .341), and Seth McClung (6.81, 1.80, .304). That brings me to Mr. Awful, the 2006 Half Season LVP…..Josh Towers. Towers has produced, in 12 starts, a 9.11 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, and a stunning .355 BAA for the Blue Jays. If you check my comments on the Jays below, you’ll see that I predicted this as well. (Pats self on back.) Onto the team by team predictions:

New York Yankees Preview

I wrote:

The same pitching problems confront the Yankees in 2006, and there is no reason to believe we will see an improvement in the overall wins in the regular season. I believe the offense will stay strong and that the team will show improved results in beating the weaker teams in the division. Although Tampa is much improved under new ownership, there is no reason to believe they can post a winning record against the Yankees again.

The season will hinge on a return to form by Randy Johnson, more consistency from Mike Mussina, and solid contributions from a combination of Wang, Chacon, Pavano, and Wright. The bullpen appears to be improved and deeper, as long as Joe Torre uses his toys wisely and doesn’t wear them out by over-pitching them. The addition of Johnny Damon seems unnecessary at first glance and all the hype about him being a “real leadoff hitter” is ludicrous. The argument has been made ad nauseum that Derek Jeter’s numbers in the #1 hole were near the top in the league. Essentially, the Yanks look the same as they did a year ago with the same question marks, and the same strengths.

Same pitching problems: Yes.
Tampa vs. Yanks in 2006: Yanks up 6 games to 2.
Torre over-pitching bullpen: Check.
Yankees winning percentage in 2005: .586
Yankees winning percentage in 2006: .581

Looks like I made good on most Yankee points. How about players?

MVP Player: Derek Jeter – Look for a batting title, gold glove, and MVP trophy
MVP Pitcher: Mariano Rivera – No comment necessary

Bat to Watch: Bernie Williams – Can he get back near .300 for one more year?
Avert your eyes: The Yankees Bench – Who among these guys is a player?

Arm to Watch: Mike Mussina – Moose is 37 and seems to be slowly declining. We need him.
Duck!: Tanyon Sturtze – How long before Torre goes away from him in favor of new blood?

I’d say that the MVP player has been Giambi, and MVP Pitcher has been Moose. Bernie has been more important than anyone thought he would be and is hitting .282 as of today. That’s closer to .300 than I would have thought him capable. The bench has proved to be a sore spot, so I think I hit that one on the mark. Mussina has been the arm to watch, mainly because of his brilliance. Without him we’d be dead. I’d say the arm to watch in the 2nd half is Randy Johnson. Tanyon Sturtze speaks for himself. How long before Torre goes away from him…..it took a career threatening injury, exacerbated by Torre’s torturous overuse to take him from the bullpen.

Boston Red Sox Preview:

I said:

The Josh Beckett signing was the crown jewel of the winter for Boston, and he should account nicely of himself at the front of the rotation. His health is a gamble for the Sawx, but he’s got electric stuff as the Yankees well know, and could win some important ballgames for Boston this year. All those nice things aside, Beckett sports a WHIP of 1.235 for his career, and while his ERA is good, he’s about to enter Fenway Park and you should see a spike to a number closer to 4.00 this season. Like Pavano, Beckett is cashing in on a good arm and memories of the 2003 World Series.

Beckett’s ERA has in fact jumped to 4.75 so far this year, so the AL has been rough on him. His WHIP and BAA are right in line with his career numbers, but he’s given up 26 home runs by the All Star break. That accounts for the spike in his ERA. The odd thing is that my thoughts on Fenway haven’t panned out as he’s dominated his home games while giving up 22 of his 26 homers on the road. Hmmmm…..

The other holes in CF and SS were filled by Coco Crisp and Alex Gonzales, respectively. Crisp is a solid all around player that should see a spike in his offensive numbers in Fenway. He won’t put up the same kind of numbers that Damon leaves behind, but his 42 doubles last season were no fluke and he will hit to the gaps frequently in Southie. Gonzales is Silly Putty. He’s there to make sure balls don’t go through the infield. He has a career .682 OPS, which should tell the story.

Coco Crisp has not seen a spike in his offensive production with the Red Sox. In fact, he’s putting up some of the worst numbers he’s had since becoming an everyday player. There’s time for him to turn it around, but he’s got a .711 OPS so far and that looks bad. There are some injury issues that have affected his production, but he took a LONG time to return to the field, and it still didn’t seem to get him ready to play. Gonzales on the other hand is having a career year. It’s still a bad career, but he’s been better than advertised. I hope he returns to form in the 2nd half so the Yankees can overtake the Sox in the standings more easily.

The Sox are not as good this season as they were in either 2004 or 2005. Schilling is a year older and his famous ankle hasn’t improved. The rest of the pitching is decent but not lights out, with Clement, Paplebon, Wakefield, and the ever abrasive David “Tweedledum” Wells. Ortiz and Ramirez are as potent a 1-2 punch as there is in the league and virtually guarantee an above .500 season regardless of who you put around them. Mike Lowell is a favorite whipping boy in some circles, but I think he should account nicely of himself for the Red Sox. He has solid career numbers which should provide a better predictive sample than the dismal results he produced in 2005. To sum things up, the Sox are not the team they once were, but they are still a formidable opponent with a great home field and an aggressive front office. There’s no reason they can’t be near the top of the Wild Card race all year.

Clearly, I was wrong about Schilling. He looks exactly as he did in 2004, and his numbers reflect that level of play. Clement has been garbage. Wakefield has been so-so. Wells is the invisible man. How is this team in first again? Oh yeah. Ortiz and Manny. Plus, my prediction on Lowell was good. There’s no reason why they shouldn’t challenge for the division all year long.

MVP Player: Manny Ramirez – As good as Ortiz is, Manny is Manny
MVP Pitcher: Keith Foulke – If he doesn’t bounce back it’s over in Beantown

Bat to Watch: Adam Stern – “The Canadian Babe” could provide a welcome surprise to red Sox Nation
Avert your eyes: Alex Gonzalez – A career .291 OBP? Can you say Womack?

Arm to Watch: Curt Schilling – If 2006 isn’t better than 2005 by a wide margin the Sox are out of the playoffs.
Duck!: Tim Wakefield– Led the AL in home runs allowed last year with 35, and had 29 in 2004.

The MVP of this team in Manny, but you can see my division notes to see that Ortiz gets the edge on the half season. Foulke has only been the MVP Pitcher because he was so bad that the Red Stockings were forced to put Papelbon in the role of closer and found a gem. Blast. Schilling was the arm to watch, and like Mussina, has produced. The arm to watch for the 2nd half should be Beckett to see if he holds up. Adam Stern? Call it WBC fever. Wakefield’s homer total doesn’t look as bad as Beckett’s so I guess Beckett could be “Duck!”. Maybe Clement is a better “Duck!” though as he just plain “Sucks!”.

Toronto Blue Jays Preview:

I said:

There is enough hitting talent on this roster to succeed. A team that features Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus, Frank Catalanotto, Alex Rios, Eric Hinske, Lyle Overbay, Shea Hillenbrand, and Bengie Molina should have no trouble putting up runs. Likewise a rotation fronted by Roy Halladay, Ted Lilly, and Gustavo Chacin should prove tough on any team facing all three in a series. Add a healthy Burnett to the mix and you have the makings of an above average rotation. If Ryan can close effectively, you’ll see the Blue Jays become a thorn in the side of any number of teams throughout the season. They’re not in the same class as the Yanks or the Sox, but the fans should have some reason to cheer.

All of this has panned out according to my prediction, as the Jays are 6th in the Majors in runs scored, and the pitching has been good. Lilly is decent, but Chacin has struggled with some injury issues and has yet to string together a good run. Likewise, Burnett has only recently been reintroduced “to the mix” and the rotation gets an incomplete. Ryan has been effective and the Jays are indeed a thorn in the Yankees side.

MVP Player: Vernon Wells – Alpha and Omega for the Blue Jays offense
MVP Pitcher: Roy Halladay – If healthy, Toronto is in the Wild Card hunt

Bat to Watch: Alex Rios – Can he breakout in 2006 the way Toronto believes he can?
Avert your eyes: Russ Adams & Aaron Hill – Weak middle infield offensively.

Arm to Watch: Roy Halladay – The entire season depends on his health.
Duck!: Josh Towers– Posted a 1.71 WHIP in the Spring, and is always an adventure.

Wells is the best player on the club, and nothing has changed. Rios is challenging him for that honor, so the “Bat to Watch” was a good pick. Halladay is healthy, and the Jays are in the WC hunt. Check. Adams and Hill have produced .623 and .724 OPSes, respectively, so indeed avert your eyes. They suck. Finally, Josh Towers has been so bad that I earlier named him the 2006 AL East Sigh Young.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays Preview:

I said:

What they have now is a good start and should get them out of the basement this year. The Orioles will oblige them by fielding one of the worst teams in baseball, but they’ve also built a foundation. I like Jorge Cantu. His OBP isn’t great, but I think he’s a gutsy ballplayer who leaves it all out on the field. His power numbers are good and given some protection in the lineup he could turn out to be a solid regular for years to come. Sean Burroughs has always had the talent. He’s not a power hitter, but he can play ball. On a good team, he hits at the bottom of the order, but he’d do you proud down there. On this team he’ll be forced to hit higher up in the lineup than he should and that will hurt him. I expect big things from Rocco Baldelli this season. He never stood out as a Hall of Famer in the making, as Lou Piniella wanted us to believe, but he has a lot of tools and could evolve into a solid middle of the lineup guy, in addition to playing a good center field.

The pitching is the key. Scott Kazmir has a lot on his shoulders this season. He needs to turn into a legit #1 starter and show Tampa fans that there’s hope for the future. If he had a plus year, the Rays will go out and get a couple of real major leaguers to pitch with him. As it is now, Seth McClung will open the season as the #2, followed by Mark Hendrickson and Casey Fossum. Ouch. Kazmir needs to go out and post a win every 5th day to keep the momentum going. It’s a lot to ask of the young man. Is he ready?

Ugh. I actually called Cantu a “gutsy player who leaves it all out on the field”. Who do I think I am, Joe Morgan? Forget that crap. His OBP is bad, his power has gone south, and he’s been bad. I think Johnny Gomes stole it from him actually. I think Cantu will get his power back, but he needs to hit 6th on this team to avoid his crappy OBP destroying the team’s chances to drive in runs. I still like him though.

Sean Burroughs?!! I REALLY must have been drinking the Devil Rays Kool-Aid to talk about him. He’s not even a player on the team these days. He produced a typically crappy .190 average for the limited time he was in the lineup, and for all I know he’s a monk on some mountain somewhere. I also take back the line that I said, “Sean Burroughs has always had the talent. He’s not a power hitter, but he can play ball. On a good team, he hits at the bottom of the order, but he’d do you proud down there.” He sucks. He shouldn’t be on any team, anywhere.

Baldelli has come back and played very well. He doesn’t hit for power yet, and really never did in the minors, but he’s a legit talent that should be in centerfield and hitting at the top of the lineup.

MVP Player: Jorge Cantu – His attitude can keep a losing ballclub motivated to the end.
MVP Pitcher: Scott Kazmir – The team is on his young shoulders

Bat to Watch: Delmon Young – What does he bring to the table for this franchise?
Avert your eyes: Tropicana Field - The worst sports facility in major sports.

Arm to Watch: Jason Childers – Good minor league reliever who has looked strong in camp.
Duck!: Casey Fossum– Led the AL with 18 hit batsmen last year. (FYI…Derek)

Again, I talked out my ass about Cantu. Forget it. Forgive me. The MVP of this team is Carl Crawford, who is on pace for 20+ homers, 60+ steals, and is hitting for an .880 OPS so far. Johnny Gomes is a close second. Kazmir is the only pitcher that the team has, but he is a 22 year old phenom. He’s legit and they stole his ass from the Mets. Idiots. Delmon Young and his brother have both shown bats to watch this year, and have both shown criminal tendencies to watch as well. Delmon Young would be playing for the Rays right now if he hadn’t been a little spoiled psycho-punk and thrown a bat at an umpire. He remains the bat to watch for Tampa, as well as the rap sheet to watch. The Arm to Watch was Jason Childers, who started the season with the team out of a strong Spring Training, but wasn’t ready as got sent to Durham where he’s been completely mediocre. As for Fossum and his hit batsmen, he leads the AL East with 8 HBP, which is also good for 4th overall in baseball. In fact, he hit Jeter on July 9th in the final game before the break. I said, “FYI…Derek” didn’t I?

Baltimore Orioles Preview:

I said:

Gone are Sidney Ponson, B.J. Ryan, Sammy Sosa and Raffy “HGH” Palmeiro. Also gone are there chances of staying out of the basement in the AL East. Of Jeff Conine, Corey Patterson, and Jay Gibbons does not an outfield make. Javy Lopez is being counted on to play first, catch, and DH. The DH option is the only one that makes any sense to me. Brian Roberts had a fine year last season, by all accounts, but will never approach the same success again. There’s less protection in the order now. Count on the Orioles to give away as many runs on defense as they produce with their bats.

Let’s take this point by point.

1. The outfield has Jeff Conine (.845 OPS in 33 games), Corey Patterson (.741 in 80 games), Jay Gibbons (.807 in 48 games), and Nick Markakis (.683 in 78 games). Conine has played much more 1B this year, so I exclude him from the mix. Markakis has received a majority of the playing time and has been poor. Let’s quickly compare these guys to Melky (.733), Damon (.837), and Bernie Williams (.739). The average OPS for the Orioles starting outfield is .744, while the Yankees replacement players and Damon have produced a .770 average. That should tell you how bad the Birds outfield is.

2. Lopez has been fortunate to receive most of his time at DH, so the Orioles are saved his terrible defense. Ramon Hernandez’ bat has kept him in the lineup and at the top of the catcher’s lists for hitting as well.

3. Brian Roberts has put a nice half season in on the basepaths, but his .745 OPS is not much better than the middle infielders of the Jays. In fairness, he’s having a career year in steals, and is doing what he always does.

The first, second, and third rules of baseball are all the same. Pitching is everything. In Baltimore this season, pitching is nothing. Lopez, Benson, Bedard, Cabrera, and Chen are their starting rotation. None of those guys are top pitchers, and while each is solid in his own way, they will struggle in their 57 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. That’s not to mention the games they will play against Oakland, Anaheim, Chicago, and Cleveland. They’ll be lucky to pick up 35 wins in those games. The final word is, trade Tejada and Mora and rebuild Baltimore. That stadium is too beautiful for such ugly baseball.

How have the Birds’ starters faired in games against the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Oakland, Anaheim, Chicago and Cleveland? At this point the starters named above factored in 33 decisions, producing a 12-21 record against those teams. The remaining 13 games were either decided by the pen or involved a replacement starter of some kind. It’s not looking good for 35 wins.

MVP Player: Miguel Tejada – Duh.
MVP Pitcher: Jim Palmer – Why not? I have to pick somebody.

Bat to Watch: Melvin Mora – A hitter’s hitter. Watch and learn.
Avert your eyes: Donald Corey Patterson – How does a guy with a career .293 OBP start?

Arm to Watch: Daniel Cabrera – Young kid should make an impression at some point.
Duck!: Anna Benson– Will make a bad season worse with her mouth.

The MVP is in fact Tejada. Duh. The MVP pitcher has turned out to be Bedard who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last month or so. The bat to watch hasn’t been Melvin Mora, who has been very bad, but rather Ramon Hernandez who is a pleasant surprise on an awful roster. Avert your eyes belongs to Luis Matos, who sports a .600-ish OPS. Daniel Cabrera has control issues that may or may not ever be resolved. Mazzone or no. Anna Benson’s mouth has been insignificant, largely because the Orioles are insignificant. She did file for divorce because her hubby is playing the field, but actually is anyone surprised by that. She was more interesting with the Mets.

That’s the end of this long review. It should be interesting to see how this whole thing plays out for the second half. The Yanks will finish in 1st. Jason Giambi will be the MVP, narrowly edging Manny Ramirez. Halladay will keep his club in the playoff hunt, but the rest of the rotation will fall short. The Rays will overtake the Orioles.

That’s it. See you again soon. I’ll make sure to leave the Buddha Babe Ruth at the front door when I finally leave for the States. Until then, enjoy the All Star festivities and see you on the other side. Go Yanks!

Don't Let this Happen!!!

There is no need to be alarmed, but I'd rather address this now so it is said. In today's Truth&Rumors over at SI, a report is quoted from the Riverside Free Press, stating that the Angels are looking at Daisuke Matsuzaka. See for yourself:

"The Angels are eyeing star Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, who earned a win at Angel Stadium on his way to becoming the MVP of the World Baseball Classic. -- Riverside Press Enterprise"

I found the original article entitled "Angels See Stars in the East" and browsed it for evidence of anything unsavory from a Yankee perspective. The Angels signed a young Korean pitcher and plan to get more active in Asia from here on out. I think that's on the mind of a lot of clubs these days, but the names I always hear associated with Asian scouting are the Mariners, Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets. At this point there aren't many more serious players in the market, but that will soon change.

I don't mind seeing Asian talent spread out over a larger spectrum of the Majors. It's good to see the emergence of the Asian ballplayer in the modern game. It shows the international reach of the sport, and the ability of this new breed to cross the ocean and break the stereotype of Asian people as somehow athletically inferior. Someday you may see the same influence on the game that Dominicans have had in the recent past.

My problem is not at all with the Angels newfound love for the Asian market. My problem is that everybody better keep their filthy hands off Daisuke Matsuzaka. He's bound to draw ridiculous interest. The highest bidder gets to negotiate exclusively with young Daisuke, so teams have to submit secret dollar amounts to the Seibu Corporation and only after the highest number has been determined will the victor know they've won the sweepstakes. It gives the Japanese company a huge advantage when they have a hot commodity like Matsuzaka. Teams who want him badly enough are bidding against one another, but they're also bidding against the phantom value of exclusive negotiating rights. If you want to bring the kid to your team you have to outspend everyone else just to talk, so you will likely overpay Seibu to have a simple conversation. As to the question of whether Seibu will "post" him for bidding, the company is in serious financial straights, and hopes to win the Japan Series this year so they can more easily let him go and reap the profits. We should all be cheering for the Lions this season. Either way the bottom line may dictate selling him to the US.

Ordinarily, I'd say it isn't worth it to go over the top, but deep in my heart I know that this flamethrowing, knee-buckling 25 year old is one of the best 7 or 8 pitchers in the world. Think Francisco Liriano with more seasoning. He's championship ready today. Plug him into the front of the rotation, and do a better job of managing his pitch count, and you'll have yourself an ace pitcher for the next 10 or more years. Overpay George. For God's sake don't let these other Johnny-Come-Latelies get their grubby mitts on "The Future". He's a Yankee. Don't let him wear the Angels' Red.

Update: The Braves and Indians are in on the Asian signing action!!! Hurry up Yanks!

Cross-posted at Matsuzaka Watch.

Francisco Liriano

This is not Yankee related, but you should watch this if you are a baseball fan. Francisco Liriano features a bunch of Bugs Bunny pitches that should keep him a frontrunner for the AL Cy Young Award for the next 15 years. If you haven't seen him pitch, click this link and watch the video of his 8 strikeouts. The kid is absolutely FILTHY!

Johan Santana and Liriano in the same lineup? Is that even fair? Interesting to see what the Twins do in the Wild Card race in the 2nd half. Stay Tuned.

Charles Schultz eat your heart out. ;)

Ground Control to Major Wang

Our boy, Chien Ming Wang is on a roll. He throws in a poor start on occasion, but he's been one of the best pitchers in the league since the start of May. In fact, after his disappointing start against Boston on May 1st, Wang has done this:

8-3 record, 1 save
91 IP
3.66 ERA
1.22 WHIP
2.93 to 1 GO/AO ratio

Among pitchers who have made 15 or more starts, Wang has the lowest home runs allowed total(7 in 19 starts) of any pitcher with the exception of Jeremy Bonderman(6 in 18 starts)and Brad Penny (7 in 18). He's efficient too. He's 3rd among Major League starters in pitches per inning at 13.84 P/IP. Only Roy Halladay and Greg Maddux throw fewer pitches per inning than Wang. That's good company.

Just think. Last year Chien Ming Wang started the season at AAA and now he's as important a player in pinstripes as anyone on the entire team. Where would we be without this "homegrown talent"? Think about this. In 36 starts for the Yankees, which amounts to roughly a full season of healthy pitching, Wang is:

17-9 with a 4.01 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a .267/.317/.366/.683 batting line against.

Thanks for competing every time out CMW. Keep it rolling. Literally. By the way, while I'm on the subject of East Asian pitchers, Daisuke Matsuzaka made his latest dominating start on Saturday and pitched a 10 inning complete game for the victory. Read the details over at Matsuzaka Watch. See you tomorrow. Go Yanks.

Saving Private Torre

It's looking increasingly like Matsui and Sheffield will be back in September. How good they'll be is anyone's guess. I've been watching the daily updates on Matsui's rehab here in Japan and he's actually wearing his glove and playing catch now. He was throwing a football to keep his arm in shape, but now he's got a fielder's mitt and is playing soft toss.

Sheff claims that he's training with a boxer, and is about 5 pounds overweight, but otherwise strong and healing quickly. Dotel will be back shortly after the All Star Break, and Cano will return at that time as well. Reinforcements are on the way....

Wilbur and Orville Would Be Proud

Was that the game of Jaret Wright's life? It certainly appears to have been. 6 innings, 91 pitches, 4 hits, no walks, 10 strikeouts. He did all that with a 1-0 lead and held it against a pretty good lineup. The last time he was even close to that good was.....last August 22nd against Toronto. He went 7 shutout innings in that one. He had a little more run support then, as the Yanks put up 7 runs for him.

Looking back over the last 3 and a half seasons, today was certainly the best he's pitched. In 2003 he was a bullpen pitcher splitting time between San Diego and Atlanta. In 2004, he caught fire with Leo Mazzone and the Braves and recaptured some of his former starting mojo to produce a 15-8 record and a career best 3.28 ERA. In 2005 Wright cashed in on his terrific year in Atlanta by stealing a free agent contract from the reckless spending Yankees. Pavano joined him in an offseason that looks more and more like a gigantic joke from a pitching perspective. He only appeared in 13 games for the Yankees with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. Injuries marked the early part of the season this year for Wright, but he's come back to make good account of himself at the back of the rotation. He's thrown a few clunkers, but it's hard to complain about the outings he's had overall. From the #4 position in the rotation he's held his own and kept us from completely sinking.

Today's outing is also remarkable considering where Wright has come from prior to 2003. Between 2000 and the end of the 2002 season he appeared in a grand total of 24 games for Cleveland, throwing 99 innings with a 7.27 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP. Career over, right? Wrong. San Diego took a chance that he could provide long relief, and 3 and a half years later he pitches a 6 inning shutout with no walks and 10 Ks. Think he's going to celebrate tonight?

You have to award Wright the Yankee Medal of Honor for his performance and hope that he gives you outings even half that good the rest of the way. If he can go 6 innings each time and keep his ERA at its current 4.23 we'll have stolen a break in an otherwise tough season. By the way, if his ERA stays at 4.23 it will mark the second best average of his career. Thank you Jaret Wright. See you tomorrow. Go Yanks.

Yankee Notes: July 7th, 2006

A couple of tidbits from SI's Jon Heyman. In his latest article, "Break Up the Phillies", Heyman talks about the Yankees a number of times. The article should probably be called, "Shake up the Yankees" given its trade deadline and free agent speculations. I'll cut and paste a few items and comment on each.

• When his name was first floated on the trading block early last winter, Abreu told people he was hoping to go to either the Mets or the pre-fire-sale Marlins. But now Yankees officials think he'd accept a trade to the Bombers. Abreu loves New York and owns a condo in the same midtown Manhattan building where Johnny Damon lives. "I don't think he'd mind [going to the Yankees],'' Wagner said. "Bobby Abreu's a good guy, but he's not a vocal leader. The one thing you have to know here [in New York] is, you have to come every day. He's got a real laid-back attitude.''

If the Yankees sign him, it means an end to Gary Sheffield in the Bronx. How fast will he hurry back from the DL if Abreu is sitting in right field every night. Try quicksand fast. Not that it matters. Abreu sports a career .302/.413/.509/.922 line, is left handed, and is 5 years younger than Sheff. For the record, Sheffield's career line is .298/.398/.525/.924, so you're basically replacing fire with younger fire if the Yanks pull the trigger. I see only two real problems with a move like this. One, if we have to give up Wang, Cano, or Hughes it's a bad deal. Two, it makes our lineup SUPER left handed, especially when Matui returns.

• Several teams, including the Yankees, are scouting Yomiuri Giants power hitter Seung-Yeop Lee, the biggest slugging star from the World Baseball Classic, who leads the Central League with 26 home runs and a .646 slugging percentage. Lee's a free agent at year's end. According to one scout, "He's good but not quite as good as [Hideki] Matsui.''

I've written about the Lion King a number of times at COH. He's a very good player and should be in the Major Leagues. If the Yankees were to go out and acquire him in the off season, it would spell an end to both Andy Phillips days in pinstripes and Giambi's days as a first baseman. One of those is good and the other is not so good. You decide which I'm talking about. Check the links in this section for my past pieces on Lee, but I'll tell you that he's on his way to an MVP award hitting cleanup for the Yomiuri Giants and spent the offseason shredding WBC pitching to the tune of 5 home runs in 7 games. Keep an eye out for news on this one. I think the Angels, Mariners, and Dodgers are the likely destinations for him, but the Yankees would be an intriguing situation.

• While Yankees manager Joe Torre said the other day he'd prefer obtaining an outfielder rather than a pitcher, GM Brian Cashman -- who, believe it or not, actually appears to still be calling all the shots -- puts pitching first. One big reason is the decreased production from Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small. The pair is a combined 4-7 with a 7.30 ERA this year, compared to 17-3 with a 3.02 ERA last season.

The recent debates both here and at Bronx Banter about acquiring a bat or an arm seem to be simultaneously occurring between the clubhouse and front office. Let's see what happens...

• Yankees fans may find fault with Alex Rodriguez, but A-Rod's popularity is strong enough to get him onto a Wheaties box. The deal will be announced next week at the All-Star Game in Pittsburgh.

Boooooooooooooooooo.......Wheaties only give you nutrition in the morning when you're sitting around reading the paper. Wheaties never gives me what I need when it really counts....when I'm in a long meeting at 4:30 in the afternoon, and it's almost quitting time. I have no energy. The coffee I drank has long since worn off, and I need to deliver a presentation to the boss. Where is Wheaties then. Such an "unclutch" breakfast food.

(Sorry about the terrifying picture of Mary Lou Retton. It's so horrible, yet I....can't.....seem to......look.................away)

See you tomorrow. Go Yanks.

Yanks Win with Guiel

The Yanks showed some guts in turning around their July 4th thumping and administered an ass-whooping of their own against the Tribe Wednesday,11-3. Moose was great. Melky was great. The hot dogs tasted better. The beer tasted better. All is right with the world.

One note of interest. You know this by now, I'm sure, but the Yankees claimed outfielder Aaron Guiel off waivers from the Kansas City Royals. He's a Canadian boy with a flair for the dramatic. I don't mean baseball drama, I mean like "Canada:World Police" kind of drama. Check out the picture from the 1999 Pan Am Games where Guiel and a Cuban player subdue a protester who ran on the field. Kick ass Aaron!

As for the baseball side of things, Guiel has showed he can handle the bat a bit. He's kind of a career minor leaguer, or a AAAA type player as some may like to call him. He's played in over 1100 minor league games over the last 13+ years, and only 263 Major League contests. At AAA, he went .285/.387/.516/.903 in 609 career games, but only managed to produce .245/.320/.412/.732 in 263 Major League games over 5 years. His minor league numbers show some promise, and he's a very good fastball hitter. You can say that about most AAAA players actually. It's the offspeed stuff that keeps them from a regular Big League job. Guiel is a solid bench player against right handed pitching, but shouldn't see any time against lefties. Against lefties his numbers are fugly.

That works out just fine because Bernie Williams is fugly against right handed pitching this year, but looks All World against lefties. Do I smell a platoon?

Guiel is an upgrade defensively, and the key factor is his power from the corner outfield position. He may not hit consistently, but in 128 games he hit 32 doubles, 4 triples, and 30 home runs at Omaha in 2005. He hit 17 home runs in 80 games between Rookie, AA, AAA, and the Royals in 2004. In 2003 he played a combined 151 games between KC and Omaha and hit 39 doubles and 23 homers. 30 of the doubles and 15 of the home runs were in the Majors. He can slug given the opportunity, so it looks like a great pickup for a platoon.

Go Yanks.

The Bombs Bursting in Air

19-1 is no way to celebrate a holiday.....well, unless you are on the "19" end of things. That loss was totally inexcusable and should result in a ferocious series of phone calls between Steinbrenner and Cashman. I'm guessing that they will be placed at around 4am and that only one of the parties on the line will be "talking".

The debate that I alluded to in yesterday's post continued at Bronx Banter during the so-called ballgame, and I think has yet to be resolved. Not that it has to be resolved, but it tells us something about the Yankees right now that we're debating a number of problems all at once. Clearly the offense is struggling. It's expected on a day when Torre starts 4 AAA players at the bottom of the lineup. Phillips, Cabrera, Reese, and Green were all hitting in an awful bunch at the end of the order and didn't do a thing all day. There's plenty to worry about when we are sporting that kind of lineup on the Boss' birthday, in his hometown. Not smart.

The debate about the offense, and getting a bat, is still off the mark to me. We don't need another bat as much as we desperately need another decent starter. I'm not talking about a good starter. I'm talking about a guy that will give up less than 5 runs over 6 innings. We'll do the rest. Right now, Wright and Chacon can't get out of the 4th or 5th inning most nights, and recently Chacon can't get out of the 2nd. That forces us to overextend our already horrendously overworked bullpen, and probably severely hurts their effectiveness in ballgames that we have a chance to win. As I see it, the bullpen is mediocre, but managable. The pitching is abyssmal at the end of the rotation, and we need to use our resources to address that situation more than the hitting.

You may say, "The Yankees offense is bad since Matsui and Sheffield went down. We can't score. We are at the league average 4.3 or so per game in run scored in that time. We can't win."

The thing is, I just did a little research. The Yankees have been scoring plenty. Here's a little breakdown for you with some milestones to solve the mystery of our sluggish O.

May 12th Matsui is injured. From May 12th until the end of the month we scored 107 runs in 19 games for an average of 5.6 runs per ballgame. Not bad.

Sheffield joins Matsui on the DL on June 1st. From June 1st until the June 24th rainout against the Marlins, the Yankees scored 103 runs in 20 games for an average of 5.2 runs per ballgame. It seems that even injuries to our two power hitting corner outfielders couldn't dip us below 5 runs a game. (Over 162 ballgames, 5 runs per contest equals 810 runs. That's more than 2 of the last 5 World Series champions scored in their victorious seasons. Arizona scored 818.)

This is where things get ugly. June 24th sees the Yankees and Marlins get rained out. The game is made up as part of a split double header the next day. On June 25th, Mussina outduels Dontrelle Willis 2-1 in the first game. In the second game we lose 5-0 and Robinson Cano goes down with an injury. That is the key. In the 10 games since the rainout in Florida (including 8+ without Cano) the Yankees have scored 37 runs for an average of 3.7 per game. If you exclude the recent 16 run explosion against the Mets, we have averaged 2.3 runs over 9 games.

I think the key is Robinson Cano's absence. Or rather, the absence of 3 key hitters in our lineup. Our average dipped slightly from 6.2 runs over the 1st 32 games to 5.6 when Matsui went down. When Sheff joined Matsui on the DL the average went down again to 5.2 per game. Without Matsui, Sheffield, and Cano we have averaged under 4 runs a game. I would hold off on analyzing the effect of Cano's addition to the walking wounded until we played without him for 19-20 games, so the sample sizes match up better, but he'll be back soon and thankfully we won't need to find out how the data materializes.

I would argue that Bernie(.719 OPS) and Melky(.693) replace Matsui(.807) and Sheffield(.811) with slightly below average players, but the dropoff from Cano(.792) to Cairo(.564) is far more severe and has really hurt the hitting. You lose a combined .206 points from the order with the 2 replacement outfielders, but you lose .228 between Cano and Cairo alone. The loss of the outfielders created a 1 run deficit in the team average, but a similar drop in OPS from one regular position player has had a similar effect on the overall runs scored.

That's why I think you'll see the scoring increase with the return of Robinson Cano. If any bat needs to be acquired, it should be a good hitting backup infielder so we don't have to watch Miguel Cairo stumble around like a drunk with a Yankee uniform on. The pitching is where it's at. That having been said, I'd like to examine a few pitchers I think would help shore up the back end of the rotation. These guys would be available without sacrificing Hughes, Wang, or Cano in my opinion. Here we go, in no particular order...

1. Paul Maholm, Pittsburgh Pirates - LHP, 24 years old
Strenghts: Excellent GO/AO ratio, keeps the ball on the ground. 24 years old and lefty.
Weaknesses: 11 hits and 4.5 walks per 9 innings means a lot of baserunners.

I wrote about Maholm the other day as an option. I don't know if he'll end up sucking it up in the end, but I'll take a 24 year old lefty that keeps the ball on the ground anyday. His ERA in the minors peaked at 3.58 at AAA after being in the high 2's at the lower levels. He also had a 1:2 walk to strikeout ratio, which means he has it in him to locate the ball better. In his last outing against the Mets, he went 6 innings and only gave up one run, although his WHIP was 1.67 in that game.

2. Livan Hernandez, Washington Nationals - RHP, 31
Strengths: Good veteran pitcher who doesn't give up many runs.
Weaknesses: Lingering injury issues, high asking price, down season in 2006.

In the end, Livan Hernandez won't be a Yankee because the Nationals want too much for him. The price will eventually come down as offers fail to make headway around the league. Someone will throw away a perfectly good player to acquire El Duque's brother, but I don't believe it will be us. He'd help though....if he could stay healthy that is....

3. Jon Lieber, Philadelphia Phillies - RHP, 36
Strengths: Sick control. Doesn't beat himself with walks. Was good in pinstripes.
Weaknesses: Coming off a groin injury. A lot of balls in play...

Lieber was a good Yankee. It was a mistake to let him go. He's exactly what we need right now, a guy who can go 200+ innings when healthy who doesn't walk the ballpark. The Phillies are 5 games in back of the wild card chase and 6 games under .500, but they may want to hang in there until it looks worse for the post-season. He may be available near the deadline if the Phils look out of it.

4. Phil Hughes, Trenton Thunder - RHP, 20
Strenghts: No trades necessary. Wicked stuff dominates minor leaguers.
Weaknesses: A bad experience in the bigs could hurt his confidence. Is he ready?

I wrote a piece about bringing Hughes to the Bronx a little while back. I think it may be a bad idea, but it's out there. Liriano and Jered Weaver are carrying the load for their teams and dominating big league hitters. Liriano is 22, Weaver is 23. They have a little edge in maturity on Hughes. Highly touted guys like Cole Hamels and Chad Billingsly have seen mixed results in their limited MLB service this season, but have shown flashes. Others are doing it as well, and some are really helping their teams. Hughes, in his last 6 starts, has gone 3-1 with a 0.72 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts in 37.2 innings. It's the mental part that will keep him in the minors until next Spring Training at the earliest. Still....he's out there.

One additional note: upon further review, Scott Kazmir is only 22 years old. He was brought up to the Rays when he was 20 years old and had only pitched in 8 games at AA. Overall he pitched in 49 minor league games, with 41 at the A ball level. Phil Hughes has pitched in 37 games with 12 at AA Trenton. Kazmir was both good and bad in his first callup with the Rays in 2004, but dominated Boston as he continues to do today. He's now one of the best ace pitchers in all of baseball. I'm not saying Hughes is Kazmir, but we might learn something from that experience that could help us THIS year.

Any ideas from the peanut gallery?

The MVP's not on the team?! What?!

That's the question that we'll all be asking if and when Jason Giambi is awarded the American League' sMost Valuable Player trophy at the end of the season. What team isn't he on? The All Star team. Why? Because Ozzie Guillen is a dick. Sorry to put it that way, but it's true. He's a dick. The uber-fantastic blog "Fire Joe Morgan" is an everyday read for me, and occasionally inspires me to write something scathing. They do it best. They wrote a great piece on Guillen's obnoxious and "dick-ish" All Star selection process. All White Sox, all the time.

Anyway, the tale of Jason Giambi's comeback started on July 4th, 2005. It is the one year anniversary of his big return, and the splits between Independence Day last year until the end of the regular season, and the start of the 2006 campaign until July 4th is strikingly remarkable for it's consistency. Check it out:

76 games - 66/231(.286) 154 TB, 27 HR, 65 RBI, 52 R, 67 BB, 11 HBP
72 games - 66/242(.273) 153 TB, 25 HR, 65 RBI, 53 R, 60 BB, 10 HBP

Overall, that's a line of .279/.451/.649 and an OPS of 1.100! The totals are:

148 games - 307 TB, 52 HR, 130 RBI, 115 R, 127 BB, 21 HBP

Still 14 games to go until he reaches 162! I guess that's not good enough to make it on Ozzie Guillen's All Star squad. I'd like to take a look at David Ortiz' last 148 games to compare. He's the guy that all the sports "experts" love the most after all, and he's starting at 1B. Plus, I'd like to look at Albert Pujols' numbers over 148 as well. It should give us some context for Giambi, since Pujols is universally regarded as the best player in the game today.

JG's 148 - .279/.451/.649/1.100, 52 HR, 130 RBI, 115 R, 127 BB, 21 HBP
DO's 148 - .280/.399/.608/1.007, 50 HR, 139 RBI, 109 R, 105 BB, 3 HBP
AP's 148 - .323/.443/.664/1.107, 49 HR, 126 RBI, 124 R, 107 BB, 6 HBP

So, there you have it. Giambi = Better than Big Papi, and hangs tough with the best guy in the sport. If he hit over .300, he'd be as good as Pujols. But, he's not an All Star. Konerko's an All Star. Good for him. Nice to have a raving lunatic for a manager.

In the end, Giambi will have the last laugh, as he becomes the 1st player in Major League history to win the MVP award without being selected to the All Star Game. The campaign starts today.

Happy 4th of July.

Jesus Montero

FYI....The Yankees signed super-hyped Venezuelan catcher Jesus Montero (16) on the first day of eligibility for international free agent signings. Players who will turn 17 by September 2006 are available to Major League ballclubs, and it's these moments that can often swing the future of an organization. Scouting and signing the right players via international free agency is key.

Montero is reported to be powerful and has talent beyond his years. It is speculated that he will eventually be moved from catcher to 1st. One of the bright spots about the Montero signing, beyond the immense talent, is that the Mets and Red Sox were after him as well. Sox fans will be disappointed after coveting him since he appeared in Spring Training at their camp. That's the Yankees advantage. We can throw a $2 million signing bonus at a 16 year-old kid that people BELIEVE is going to be a future star. If I had a dollar for all those guys out there, I'd have....well.....probably something like $2 million. Let's hope he's the next coming of Albert Pujols.

Tony Pena's son, Francisco, is also a highly touted catching prospect and has drawn interest from the Braves and Yankees.

What'd the 5 Fingers Say to the Face?

What a great victory. I was sitting at my desk at work, Gamedaying it, and just felt that the 4 runs the Mets scored in the 2nd inning wasn't going to hold up. I really felt in my bones that the Yankees would get at least 4 against Soler, and it was only a matter of how well the bullpen was going to string together 8+ innings of relief. Could they do it again, for the 2nd time in three days?

Yup.

It wasn't as pretty as the Mussina/Hernandez affair from a pitching standpoint, but it sure was exciting. Fireworks were out a couple of days early. Can the A-Rod haters take a break for awhile and kiss his posterior while they're at it. You know who you are. When the year is over and the guy has 40 home runs and 120 RBIs, you'll probably take credit for it because your magical booing broke him out of his slump. Hooray for you. The man's like Rick James, bitch. He's a SupaFreak! Got that Paul DoLuca?

I had an interesting debate over at Cliff and Alex' Bronx Banter before and during the game. I was arguing that the Yankees don't absolutely need another bat to win. The gist of the debate was that the Yankees had gone flat over the last 26 games with only a league average 4.3 runs scored per game. I contended that every team goes through those stretches and that it's good pitching that will help turn that 4.3 into a decent record until the bats come alive and extend the winning record to a better margin. I may be wrong, maybe you all have an opinion, but I dug up the following numbers to support my theory.

The 2000 Yankees ended the season with an 87-74 record and won a weak AL East division. They scored 871 runs (5.4 per) and gave up 814 (5.1 per). That team went 13-13 in May, scoring 4.7 runs a game against 4.2 allowed. They went 10-15 in June with a whopping 6.2 runs per game against an equally whopping 6.1 allowed. Over the final 31 games, the 2000 Bombers went 13-18 with 4.1 runs scored against 5.9 runs allowed. The problem on that team was poor pitching. Even when the team was on fire, it couldn't win ballgames because of the pitching. You can get away with scoring less than 5 runs a game and win if you have the pitching. Let's look at the last 5 champions numbers. These teams have all won the title since the Yankees last pulled it off in 2000.

2005 Chicago White Sox (99-63)
741 scored(4.6) - 645 allowed(4.0)

2004 Boston Red Sox (98-64)
949 scored(5.9) - 768 allowed(4.7)

2003 Florida Marlins (91-71)
751 scored(4.6) - 692 allowed(4.3)

2002 Anaheim Angels (99-63)
851 scored(5.3) - 644 allowed(4.0)

2001 Arizona Diamondbacks (92-70)
818 scored(5.1) - 677 allowed(4.2)

As you can see, all of these teams held their opponents to less that 5 runs a game, with only the 2004 Red Sox allowing more than 4.3 a game. That team was the wild card, and painfully got to the Series by coming back from a 3-0 deficit against the Yanks in the ALCS. They worked some freakish late inning slugging magic to pull it off that year. The teams also averaged no less than 4.6 runs a game during their respective seasons. Let's see how those numbers stack up against the Yankees and Red Sox of 2006 to see how each team stacks up against the champs.

2006 Red Sox (50-29)
445 scored(5.63) - 377 allowed(4.8)

2006 Yankees (46-33)
444 scored(5.62) - 368 allowed(4.7)

Hmmmmm.....It seems that both of these teams are even. The Sox are 4 games up, but haven't performed better than the Yankees in terms of run differential. It's identical. How about the other AL teams with better records than the Yanks....

2006 Detroit Tigers (56-26)
431 scored(5.3) - 312 allowed(3.8)

2006 Chicago White Sox (53-28)
477 scored(5.9) - 376 allowed(4.6)

I'll also throw in the Blue Jays, who are breathing down our necks.

2006 Toronto Blue Jays (46-35)
442 scored(5.5) - 388 allowed(4.8)

You can decide if there's anything wrong with the offense or not. The current sample includes the good and the bad of the season for the Yankees. It includes the big offensive numbers we put up early and the struggling offensive days we've had lately. It also includes the Red Sox hot start, cool middle, and nuclear recent history. The numbers still come out the same. The only team among the 5 best squads in the AL that scores more than the Yanks is the White Sox. The runs allowed are almost identical among all these teams with the exception of the otherworldly Tigers who are bound to come back to earth just a little before the season is done.

We can add a bat. We can give up prospects to acquire a rental in the outfield to spell the sub-par Bernie or Melky. The thing is, we are scoring enough to hold our own with half a season left to play. If anything we can win more ballgames by reducing our runs allowed. That means pitching. Consider that we have Damon, Jeter, Giambi, A-Rod, Posada, Cano, and Phillips in the first 7 spots of our order. Each one of those guys is above average at his position with the stick. A few of those guys are MVP caliber bats. Adding a bat in the 8 or 9th position would certainly bump up our run production a couple tenths of a run.

We also throw out there Mussina and Wang, who have been very good, and Randy Johnson who is anybody's guess. The back end of the rotation is up for grabs with Chacon, Wright, and the Ghost of Carl Pavano regularly leaving ballgames in the 4th or 5th inning. The bullpen is throwing obscene innings, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Ramiro Mendoza make a return to the Bronx in the near future to take some turns. Octavio Dotel may also be back sometime in the not too distant future, so we will be deeper at that position without a move. Starters are hard to come by, and we most assuredly would have to give up Cano or Hughes in any deal for a good starter. Not worth it.

Where does that leave us? Here's my thoughts. If we can add an outfield bat for cash considerations and a mediocre minor leaguer, go for it. We've tried Terrence Long and Bubba Crosby, so there is a need for a little more reliable help. Giving up anything more than that is not smart, and I'd just as soon stick with the collection of excellent hitters we have, plus Bernie and Melky. If we can get back Dotel, and continue getting good innings out of Beam and Smith, problem solved in the pen. Last, getting a starter is going to prove very difficult. The best chance we have to do that is to wait until the trade deadline and skim a 4th or 5th starter off a bad team. Maybe Pittsburgh's Paul Maholm, for example. He's young(24), a lefty, low salary, and posts decent numbers despite struggling at times. Righties have hit him pretty good this year, but his 2.04 GO/AO ratio is encouraging. His walks and WHIP aren't pretty, but that's what might make him available. He's produced in the past, and is young enough to take a chance on. I don't know what it would take to acquire him, but I think we could negotiate a fair price that wouldn't hurt our precious top prospects. The key is, he may come cheap with a decent upside. If he doesn't work out, he can hang out in Columbus.

Just random thoughts on where we are at the mid-point of the season. Chien Ming Wang is up next against Cleveland. There can be only one. See you tomorrow. Go Yanks!

Intensive Care Unit

Ugh. Just when you thought it was safe to get back into the water....the Randy Johnson engine turns back into a choo choo. Not that I'm surprised. All along I've said that he's going to be great one day and miserable other days. He's at that point in his career. I did some digging to examine his numbers pre-Bronx and for his season and a half in pinstripes.

One interesting thing that I've found is that his batting average against with the Yankees is a very strong .245 or so. This year he is at .252 including the poor outing against the Mets. That's better than Brandon Webb, Tom Glavine, Scott Kazmir, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, and Kenny Rogers to name a few. It's not what he once was, as his career BAA is a ludicrous .216 over approximately 18 Major League seasons.

He sports a WHIP of 1.18 with the Yankees matching his career number almost exactly (1.16). His 4.26 ERA with the Bombers is a run higher than his career 3.16 ERA, but should still be good enough with the offense we bring to each game to win a bunch. For his career, Johnson averages 7 innings per start. With the Yankees he goes about 6 and a half. The Big Unit sports a nearly 11 K/9 ratio for his career, while he puts up 8.2 per 9 with the Yankees. Still impressive. What is it about the big fella that seems so awful? Why does he seem to stink up the mound so often? Is it unrealistic expectations, similar to A-Rod? Is it something else? These are the burning questions.

Johnson's numbers against left handed batters are still very good. Lefties are hitting .204 against him in 2006 with only 1 homer among 60 batters faced. Additionally, lefties have a 2.88 GO/AO ratio and a hitting line of .204/.259/.315 against Johnson. That's an OPS of a meager .574 in half a season of work. It's also not so far off from what he's done throughout his entire career.

Righties have been a bit better. In 401 plate appearances, righties have hit .260/.324/.432 against Unit with a horrible 0.77 GO/AO ratio and 15 home runs. His career numbers against righties is much better than this with a .219/.313/(SLG splits not available, but certainly less than .432). In fairness on the home run numbers, if the next lefty he faces goes deep the ratio of homers per PA are about the same. Still, I think I see something in the numbers that explains his troubles.

It's not brain surgery, and I won't claim to have some special insight into Randy Johnson's mediocrity, but we can see that his numbers aren't so bad overall. They're worse than his career production, but not by so much as to say that he's completely lost it. The numbers that have slumped are his strikeouts, and his SLG Against for righties. His ERA has ballooned for the Yankees, but it seems that the other stats aren't enough to explain why he's giving up more than a run over his career number for the Yanks, and more than 2 runs this year so far. I think the lack of strikeouts and the high slugging against the Big Unit are the key.

Johnson has always been able to overpower hitters with a nasty fastball, and a sharp vicious slider. Against lefties, the arm angle is still suffiently tough to pick up that they can't catch up to his pitches on most nights. With less velocity on the heater and less snap on the slider, Johnson's out pitches aren't so tough to make contact on these days. Righties can fight off the toughest pitches more easily, and more frequently drive the ball on the stuff in the zone. Making better contact on his pitches makes longer at bats, and better hit balls in play. The fastball is still good, if not overpowering, but I'd love to see what the numbers are on balls put in play for his slider. I'm guessing that it's that pitch that has abandoned him and is primarily responsible for his awful numbers against right handed batters. A lefty seeing a medicore slider from Johnson still has a tough job to do. That pitch is still going to start at the inside of the plate and die low and away. For righties that pitch looks really fat, and no one is fooled by it any longer.

I don't think there's anything he can do about it either. A guy approaching 43 years old, standing 6-10 on the mound, isn't going to be as "rubbery" as he was in his prime. I use that term to suggest that athletic performance depends on power derived from flexibility and the torque generated by a powerful but "bendy" musculature. I know that's not so scientific, but I'm not a kinesthesiologist. I'm a blogger. My conjecture is that Johnson is no longer able to consistently achieve the combination of arm angle and power through the delivery zone that once helped him to strike out righties. The fastball is slower and higher in the zone, while the slider is flatter and stays in the wheelhouse of right handed batters much longer. In everday language that means he throws fat pitches.

One more thing, while I'm talking out my ass. How about the fact that playing in the AL East means a couple of things for RJ. The DH means another tough out for him over the course of a game. In the East that also means facing the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles, and Tampa lineups that can all hit for power. He pitches in Camden, Fenway, and Skydome. It also means that April and May will be much cooler and June will be rainy and/or humid. In Arizona, Johnson had the luxury of facing a pitcher every 9 ABs in one of the worst divisions in baseball, in PETCO/Qualcomm, Dodger Stadium, and in various iterations of San Francisco's home field, plus he pitched in hot-dry weather.

In 616.1 innings against the NL West, Johnson went 52-23 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 10.9 strikeouts per 9 innings. Against the AL East(minus the Yanks), Johnson has gone 40-24 in 563.2 innings with a 4.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 10.3 strikeouts per 9. As a Yankee, against the AL East, Unit is 12-5 in 144 innings, with a 5.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 8.3 K's per 9.

The combination of change in venues, climates, and leagues with his aging body has produced the current version of Randy Johnson. It it what it is. It's not going to get better. We need to live with it, and realize that Mussina and Wang are our consistent regulars, with an occasional flash of excellence from Unit, and a gigantic question mark otherwise. It may or may not be enough to get the job done this year, and perhaps Boston's pitching will be better than ours over 162 games. Right now we are 2nd in all of baseball in OPS Against (Detroit) at .706 while Boston is 14th at .759 on the year. We have scored 5.52 runs per game while Boston is at 5.58 per. Over the course of a full year it looks even and that's where it will probably end up again, good Unit or Bad.

One last thing....close your eyes and imagine this rotation next year to go along with our offense.

Mussina
Johnson
Matsuzaka/Zito
Wang
Hughes

If we get Matsuzaka this is a fearsome 5-some. Plug in Zito instead of Matsuzaka and you still have one of the most ridiculous pitching rotations in baseball, even with the top two pitchers on the list in decline. Patience and a bit of Cash Money Magic is the key.

See you tomorrow. Go Yanks!

Bridge Work

I like the Mets. I'll admit it. I'm not just talking about this edition of the Mets, but the franchise in general. I'm not one of the anti-Mets crowd that exists among Yankee fans, although I understand the feelings that bunch has as well. The thing is, the Mets are the Yankees little brothers and they wear a uniform that says "New York" across the chest. I want the Yankees to win everytime we play one another, but I'm not mad at the team from Queens.

When the Mets are bad, I don't care actually. Their success and failure is beyond the range of my personal attention, but it's nice when both NY teams are in it. When the Mets are bad, it's funny. When they're good, the town is electric. I love New York when there's that crackle of energy in the air. I like it when Yankee hats on the street are sprinkled with Met hats. It means that things are right in the world. The Subway Series in 2000 was one of the high points of my baseball fandom, as I rode the A train from Brooklyn to the Bronx, via Manhattan. Yankee fans and Mets fans met each other underground and in the most friendly and competitive way engaged in debate about the clubs. Sporadic and spontaneous chants of "Let's go Yankees....Let's go Mets" would break out at any moment, and good natured verbal sparring ensued. It was heaven.

I was a high school student in 1986 when the Mets and Red Sox put on their 7 game show. The Yankees were good, but not great, and I often found myself on the bandwagon of the Amazing Mets as their colorful cast of characters entertained New York. From Day One until his final days in a Yankee uniform, I was a Darryl Strawberry fan. Still am. I was a Doc Gooden fan, when the debate about Clemens and Gooden was something other than a cruel joke. I liked fat Sid Fernandez, and Ron Darling was always a good performer to watch as well. The only guy on that team that turned my stomach was Keith Hernandez. Only a real Mets fan could love that jackass. I remember wishing that Straw knocked him out when they went at each other in Spring Training in '89.

That brings me to today. The Mets are fun to watch, and they are for real. These are not the high priced Vince Coleman, Eddie Murray, Bobby Bonilla Mets. These Mets are good players, and a very good front of the rotation should help them go far. Pedro and Glavine are aging, but tough, and seem to have enough left in their tanks to drive the bus to the last stop. If only they had Scott Kazmir. How bad does that trade look now?!!!! The Yankees are limping around trying to keep the pace with the surging Red Sox. The Mets smell blood. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

The thing is, we lucked into a few favorable pitching matchups in this series that should help us hold our own. El Duque against Mussina had to favor the Yankees. Duque is one of my all-time favorites, but he's been shaky and Mussina is having a stellar season. The rain-delayed 2-0 victory was a beautiful thing to behold. 1-hit Yankee pitching that spanned Moose and virtually every beleaguered member of the pen. Moose's tweaked groin sounds more like a creaky veteran thing than a real injury. I'm not going to think about it again unless it turns into something later. It was the pen that deserves a pat on the back.

I've been killing the bullpen this year. Sturtze, Erickson, Proctor, Farnsworth....whoever was blowing up at the time has heard it. I've called for Colter Bean, T.J. Beam, and prayed for Octavio Dotel. The pen has been bad at times. Let's face it. Last night they were lights out and won a very important ballgame for the Yankees. Just when it looked like the door was open for a Mets comeback, the gang came through. My favorite moment was Proctor telling Torre that he wanted to "fucking finish this thing." I could read his lips as he practically spit in Joe's face. Does anyone else think that whole thing was weird?

After Scooter blazed pitches across the plate against overmatched Mets hitters, Posada suddenly calls time and calls the trainer out. I didn't see anything weird, and I still can't see anything weird in any of the replays. Torre asks him what he wants to do, as if he's going to say, "Well....I'm one strike from finishing a perfect inning, but please remove me." His response speaks for itself...both the words and the next 97 MPH pitch. Nice work Proctologist. It's been awhile since he performed his medical work on a group of hitters instead of the other way around. He also gave Posada an earful in the dugout in front of the YES cameras. Jorge confronted him to explain why he called Joe and the trainers and he basically gave him the "whatever. F-You" look in response. That's the closest thing we're going to get to the Bronx Zoo these days, but it was funny. It's easy to laugh when you pitch to one batter above the minimum as a team.

Trachsel against the Big Unit is up next. Keep it rolling Yanks.