UPDATE: Reports now say that the Helton/Red Sox discussions are dead. Probably a smart thing for the Red Sox. Everything in the following post still holds true, but the Sox have made a wise foray into the realm of "test the waters to get a vet on the cheap". When things didn't look good to the Rockies, they balked. Good GMing by Theo in the end.
How is it that Red Sox vs. Yankees has permeated the baseball scene from the farthest reaches of the continental United States, to the span of foreign continents, and from Spring Training to Spring Training, 365 days a year. I thought I’d had just about enough in 2006 after yet another season of 19 head to head matchups, but I’m starting to feel even more like I ate one too many pieces of double fudge layer cake. This time the story is Todd Helton.
The news has been swirling around the Red Sox and the Rockies lately regarding a potential swap of slugger Todd Helton for a package of players and possibly cash. In and of itself this news does not register as more than a firm tremor on the baseball Richter scale, but in “the rivalry” it’s yet another example of the teams sticking out their chest at one another and daring the opponent to react. For the organizations themselves, baseball decisions are made for baseball reasons, in general, but for the fan bases these things become giant foam middle fingers to wave at each other. What does this really mean once we strip the emotional fan factor from the equation?
Todd Helton has been one of the most fearsome hitters in the game for years. Yes, in the NL. Yes, in Colorado. When we examine his career road split against his home numbers we see the following:
Career
Home .371/.465/.676 for a 1.141 OPS
Road ..294/.393/.507 for a .900 OPS
2005
Home .353/.471/.616 for a 1.087 OPS
Road .287/.418/.453 for an .871 OPS
I chose 2005 over last season’s numbers because Helton, by all accounts, had an illness that prevented him from playing and when he did play he was weak. Taking that illness out of the equation, we should expect him to produce at a fairly consistent level. What jumps out right away is the titanic dropoff in power that occurs away from the thin air of Coors. The average also suffers. For the Red Sox, the problem with making this deal is the big money that is combined with the lack of power at a premier power position. The plus for the Sox will be his on base percentage, which slips to a merely semi-superhuman level on the road. In front of Papi, Manny, and Drew that should be devastating. If Francona can get it through his head to also bat Youkilis in front of that group, you’d see something special offensively.
In other words, he doesn’t have to be Todd Helton Colorado to be a big bonus for the Sox. He merely has to be Todd Helton Fenway. I think there’s more upside to taking on whatever money Helton has coming back with him, if any. The rub is the long term aspect of his play. Can he earn his money on the back end of the contract. I have faith that a .400 OBP and .500 SLG will be a perfect fit in Boston in 2007 and 2008, but his contract runs through 2011. That means that whatever diminished skill set he has in 2009, 2010, and 2011 will be on the payroll in Beantown. In those years, Helton will be 35, 36, and 37 years old respectively. The money is less of an issue with the free spending ways of the modern day Red Sox, but the production is a big question mark. Make no mistake about it. If Helton wears a Boston uniform in 2007, the Sox are looking to win now. They are looking to take, perhaps, two shots at the World Series with Helton in the lineup. They are playing by the early 2000s Yankees’ playbook, where high priced veterans and a yearly run at the championship are worth eating the back end of bad contracts. That’s brilliant if it works. If you win, no one cares about the wads of cash flying out the window of the penthouse. If you don’t win, it looks more like stacks of $100s being tossed into the dingy basement furnace.
Yankee fans have grown weary of that method, and thankfully Cashman has grabbed the reins to build the farm, build long term, and bring a bit of fiscal restraint to the organization. With the resources that both these clubs have, it’s better to invest the dough in the system to build a dynasty on the backs of young homegrown talent. Instead of Todd Helton at the tail end of his career for big money, the Yankees are taking the path to Helton at the beginning of his career at minor league prices. The Sox system has suffered thanks to their recent fixation on winning it all again. Like heroin junkies, they traded away Hanley Ramirez and Anibel Sanchez to the Marlins for Beckett and Lowell. Lowell may be a part of this Helton trade, and Beckett was pretty bad on a third place team. Ramirez won the rookie of the year and Sanchez threw a no hitter. Andre Marte is another one that slipped away.
The Yankees are poised to bring up Phil Hughes this season. Cano, Wang, and Melky are all current factors in our lineup. Any number of other young arms could be on their way to the Major League roster soon, and a few lower level players will eventually have a huge impact (Tabata). There is work to be done on the Yankees farm when it comes to position players, to be sure, but we are building. The Red Sox would be trading away yet another package of minor leaguers to get Helton. They have Papelbon in their rotation now, and wisely never sold him up the river. Pedroia will be joining the big club to fill their hole at 2B, while Jon Lester will be attempting to come back from cancer. That leaves very little in the way of major prospects in their farm system.
Who knows, the Red Sox may end up winning 3, 4, 5 World Series in a row thanks to all the spending. Maybe they’ll succeed where the Yankees have failed in recent years. Their team will be very strong for the next few years, to be sure. I’m still going to live and die by the way the Yankees and Cashman are running the business today, and I think it bodes well for our dynastic likings, to see the future emerging from within.
Thousands of protesters blocked roads with rubble and burning tires at the start of a general strike to try to topple the government.
I just wonder what the Lebanese government did to piss off Joe Torre like that! Doesn't it look like he's signaling to the pen for Every Day Scotty?













