Canyon of Heroes

A New Beginning

2009-01-07T17:34:00.001-08:00

Things have started to settle in for the Yankees as the offseason picture is coming to a slowdown. Major moves, major money, and a serious commitment to winning now. What a difference a year makes. No one in the Steinbrenner family can stomach "not winning", which is basically a way to say "losing" without actually attaching it to the Yankee brand.

Adding C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira and the payroll associated with those names, has put a lot of pressure on the other teams in the league during a time of global financial downturn. Uncertainty over the state of the economy has made more than a few teams gun shy in the free agent market, but the Yankees are set up to spend in any environment. Particularly important here is the notion that the Yankees are actually saving money on the 2009 budget, despite these signings, thanks to jettisoning Mussina, Pettitte, Giambi, Pavano, and Abreu. Their replacements are Sabathia, Burnett, Teixeira, and some combination of Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher. I would say that the Yanks have upgraded everywhere except perhaps RF, but the Moneyball strategy would suggest that a player who can't be replaced by another player can always be replaced by two players of lesser dollar value, platooning for equivalent production. I think that's where Cashman went with that position...wisely, I might add.

Over the last few years, this moment in Yankee history was at the front of my mind and now that it's upon us, it looks as good as I thought it might. Next offseason will complete the retooling of the club, and I think we'll likely see the end of Matsui and Damon. That aging, noodle-armed platoon makes a fair lump of cash and it's not unreasonable to expect that we can sign a single, younger player to fill LF that will total less than the 25-ish million that the two aforementioned players cost us now.

The Red Sox have a lot of holes in their rotation and on the field now, and I would suggest that they are dangerously close to dropping back into 3rd place in the division as they were some years ago. The Rays are tough and young and have a tremendous farm system. They are here to stay. The Yankees are aging, but have bolstered a flawed lineup and built a rotation that should compete for years to come. The Sox have Beckett and Matsuzaka, but follow them with Bucholz, Lester, Penny, and Wakefield. That looks fairly similar to our own 2008 rotation with Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Hughes, and Kennedy at the start of the year. Without Manny in the middle of the order, the Sox are relying on a lot of 2nd tier guys to produce for their mediocre rotation. I don't think it's a winning environment. How will Pedroia, Papi, Bay, Youkilis, Lowell, Drew, and the younger fill-ins do enough to help out the good, but not great pitching staff? Their problem is the decline of Varitek and the inability to do anything effective with the other "up the middle" positions.

Are the Yankees finished? Is there anything in the works with Melky? Is the bullpen locked up? Is there one more free agent in the ether? Manny? That would be overkill, no? I know it's not popular among smarter Yankee fans, but I would almost just love to see it to thumb my nose at the Sox and let him eat them alive in pinstripes. May cooler heads prevail.

Oh Say Can You C.C.

2008-12-10T03:43:00.000-08:00

The New York Post is reporting that C.C. Sabathia has signed the big money deal with the Yankees that was on the table for some time. A lot of speculation about whether he would sign the deal or not was bounced around for a few weeks, and I declined to chime in on it. The deal is apparently done now, so I have a few things to say.

1. The Yankees are Back

Having a guy like C.C. Sabathia at the front of the rotation is just what the doctor ordered. He's big, durable, dominant, lefty, and mature. Putting him in front of Wang and Joba is going to look very good, and opens the door for another signing that I like to dream about....

2. LeBron James to the Knicks

I don't think there's much doubt that LeBron is going to play at MSG in two years, but this may have sealed it. The two men played in Cleveland at the same time and are apparently close. This makes me cry like a baby to think about...

3. A Reorganization of the Everyday Players is in the Works

I think the financial investment we've seen in Sabathia may be a prelude to some moves with the everday players. I don't know exactly what moves may be in the works, but I would guess that we're not done with 1B. 2B may be up in the air, if we move Cano. Centerfield will not be the domain of any of the men who played the position in 2008. Matsui could be gone. Would anyone take Damon? There are things a-brewing in Yankeeland. I hope to stay on top of all of them from here on out. The 2009 season has officially begun.

A Canyon Reborn

2008-11-17T03:24:00.001-08:00

Hello. My name is Mike Plugh. You might remember me from such blogs as Matsuzaka Watch and Darvish Watch. Perhaps you might remember me from such websites as Baseball Prospectus. As you might notice, the last entry at this venerable institution of Yankees commentary was sometime at the start of the past season. I owe you an explanation.

I'm a resident of two continents. I bridge the divide in real geography as well as metaphorically, via my family life. The past year has been an adventure of life between Japan and the United States. It's included a whirlwind Masters degree at Fordham University in the Bronx and employment at Akita International University in northern Japan. Mid-July saw the birth of my second child, a daughter, in Akita and the demands of each of these things kept me from my passion for baseball. Oh, and there was that pesky little election thing that I was involved in. I've restricted much of my blogging to my politics and media site Communicative Action for the past year. As an active member of Democrats Abroad Japan and a Media Ecologist, I've had my hands full with progressive, netroots activism and a deeper, more committed career in media scholarship.

I'm hoping to make a PhD my next adventure in this journey, perhaps as soon as Fall 2009, but there should be just enough room for my Yankee alter ego at this point to squeeze in at least one more offseason and run at the pennant. For those of you new to my work, please bookmark me or subscribe to my RSS feed. For those of you returning to the Canyon of Heroes perspective, thanks for your loyalty and support. The blog will need a little airing out from the mothballs and will require a few upgrades here and there to reflect my Web 2.0 sensibilities, but jump on board for the ride now while the getting is good. Now to some baseball...

My layoff at COH was actually very well timed. My passion for the Yankees waned slightly at the start of the last season and my expectations were similarly low. More than anything else, the team reminded me of the last years of the Ewing era at Madison Square Garden where nostalgia masked some very real problems and the promise of a few young faces gave us a false sense of our own potential. My busy schedule combined with this pessimissm about the team made it easy to go cold turkey on blogging, even while I kept my eyes on the team all season long. Here's a little sense of why I felt that way, and how I feel right now as a new season's cycle is upon us.

Last season the club put Jason Giambi, Melky Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Kyle Farnsworth, and a few others on the field every night. None of those players spelled any sort of promise to me. As it turned out, Mussina surprised everyone to turn in one of his finest seasons and a cherry on the sundae of his career with 20 wins. Outside that magical feat there was little to celebrate from any of the other cast of characters. I saw that coming, frankly, and when I connected the dots to the age creeping up on Jeter, Posada, and Abreu I didn't like what I saw. It was one year too many with that core group.

The Johan Santana situation was a bit complicated last offseason. I've long been an advocate for laying off the free agent players with big price tags unless they are of the very elite at their positions. We're talking HOF credentials. Santana is in that class, but it required a trade of our young pitching to acquire him and I don't really support that philosophy. We face a C.C. Sabathia expenditure this offseason that rivals in dollars what we would have spent on Santana, although there have to be a few questions about whether he will ultimately be in the same class long term. There is the issue of his weight of course, but his big success, his prime years, have come after his 25th birthday and there have only been two years worth of performance to go by in judging him. I'll get into my feelings about this move in a moment.

If you keep shuffling the same pieces around hoping to get a different result, it seems you are pursuing a foolish strategy. Giambi at DH. Giambi at first. Matsui in left. Matsui at DH. Johnny Damon in left. Johnny Damon at DH. Flexibility is one thing, trying to jam the same broken down pieces into a lineup is another.

This offseason has the potential to be one of renewal. The permission to blow things up was given as the team lost it's last chance at a championship in the old stadium. The new stadium is here, and with it a new era dawns....sort of. There is still Jeter, A-Rod, Matsui, Damon, Posada, Cano, Melky, and Mariano to name a few. The renewal of the Yankees is still far from in full swing. Getting better is something we can do. Getting younger is also doable. Doing both at the same time is a tougher task and one that will require a big outlay of cash. Our farm system isn't nearly good enough to pay immediate dividends on that front, but the demands of a rabid fan base, a cranky ownership, and tradition almost force the club to pursue every means to win.

Being a Milwaukee Brewers fan or a Tampa Bay Rays fan is an exercise in patience. They stink, they draft, they develop, and they get a fleeting 5 or 6 years of success to live by. Yankee fans want the whole thing every season. We're a greedy and unforgiving bunch. The joy of a Phillies championship in a city decades removed from any sort of championship is a foreign concept for us. Some of us approaching middle age lived through the long, dry years of Yankee mediocrity and can appreciate the current commitment to winning. The joy of it is a bit compromised now, I must say. Sure, it's a happy affair when your team wins it all, but it feels much better when it comes after a period of down times. The definition of "overcoming the odds" for the Yankees is not winning 100 games and fizzling out in the ALDS. That's the definition of being "spoiled."

The aforementioned Brewers put together Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and others. The Rays have Crawford, Longoria, Upton, and now Price. The Phillies managed to string together Howard, and Utley, and Rollins to go with Hamels. We look to buy our way into the playoffs with only a sideways glance at our young players, Cano and Hughes and Joba, as contributors to the larger picture. Now, we're going to dump the old and bring in the new. Out is the $100 million Jason Giambi experiment that ultimately only amounted to a few exciting moments and a lot of ties to the steroid era. Out is Mike Mussina, in all likelihood, who represented the good but never great pitching staff that took over post Clemens, Key, Cone. Out may be Abreu, who was a good Yankee and a model of the modern baseball philosophy that's rightly or wrongly attributed to Billy Beane's "Moneyball." The right field short porch will probably whisper, "Goodbye Bobby. I hardly knew ye."

In might be C.C. Sabathia and his strong, young left arm. In is Nick Swisher, a Bobby Abreu pretender with the versatility to play first base if needed. Teixeira? Burnett? Manny? Who else is coming in on the white horse to save the day? If only it was the proverbial "man on a white horse" that the Yankees needed. There is A-Rod, after all.

Can the Yankees be better? With their resources, yes. Can the Yankees be exciting? If lots of offense and overwhelming star power is your thing, again, yes. If making the playoffs every year, championship or no, is acceptable, then yes. As a long time fan of the sport, and the Yankees, I long for a bit of perspective on what it means to win it all. I won't throw back the banners or the memories of the tickertape parades, if they come again, but I liked it a bit better when it was Charlie Hayes clutching the last out at third for some odd reason. I'm not a Scott Brosius apologist, but I was satisfied with his rise from mediocrity to contribute to a great season in 1998. I enjoyed Joe Girardi and Paul O'Neill, who were great Yankees if not great players. The satisfaction of winning doesn't come from winning at all costs, but rather winning despite the odds. That's why the world could fall in love with the Rays. The excitement built over time and their tremendous feat was a tribute to a long-suffering franchise who finally got it right.

Okay, now that my little cathartic speech about winning in some kind of ideal, pure fashion is over, back to Yankee world. Thank God we have an ownership that understands how to generate revenue via its geographical advantages. The Red Sox finally got that right a few years back and have turned their franchise into the model club of the sport. We are in the position to put money back into the team and will do so again this year. Dropping the older, dead weight is the beginning to a fresh start. Understanding the right kind of players to bring in with big money is the trick. C.C. Sabathia is a good place to start, and to start by overspending to avoid getting caught out on the cheap. Pairing Sabathia with Wang and Joba makes us super tough. A strong #4 would put us in a position to compete with any team out there. Is it Hughes? Hard to say. He can certainly be #5. I don't think that we need to go crazy with Derek Lowe or A.J. Burnett to find that #4 guy. It's not worth it.

I also think that spending big on the offense is unnecessary. Swisher is a good start at a decent price. Keep Cano. Don't give up on him yet. He has something, if he can tap into it for a full season. Find someone young to sit behind Posada and develop him. Easier said than done. Don't blow the wad on a first baseman if Teixeira isn't coming. Let Damon and Matsui ride out their contracts unless you can unload them on someone. I'd only spend on Manny if I were going to dish out big cash on an outfielder, but I don't think it's necessary....as intriguing as it would be in my opinion. The Yankees can spend less, score a little less, play better defense, pitch MUCH better, and win. What's more, we can win it all without the Giambi's and Matsui's and Damon's and the high priced position players that we've tried to plug in over recent years. If we stick with our veterans, add Teixeira and Sabathia, isn't that enough? Can't we spend the next two years phasing out the guys that are on the big decline and replace them with the lower priced players that produce 80% of the big names, but play hard, play good defense, and inject a little life into the process.

My last word here may be blaspheme to Yankee fans and I may lose some of you in the process, but I don't care if the Yankees win big every season. I like it when they win. I want to win more and more championships. I want to stop the Red Sox at all costs. But...if we don't win....okay. That's the very nature of competition. There is no winning without losing. The two define each other. It's how you win and how you lose that determine the satisfaction or sting in the end. Winning by outspending everyone and stacking a lineup of big names is less satisfying poetically. Likewise, losing under the same circumstances is correspondingly unpoetic. It's rather pathetic actually. When Moose spit the bit against Detroit a couple of years ago in the ALDS, some Yankee fans lost it, and rightly so. The "greatest lineup ever assembled" went cold and the pitching was exposed for what it was...aging and never dominant. The loss produced a kind of cotton-mouth effect that really carried over into last season and was never alleviated at any point.

So, I'd rather fight hard and lose with some fulfillment of the Homeric hero poem than by playing the role of the once leading man turned B-actor. I'd love to win either way, but doing so can only truly be satisfying for this Yankee fan if it happens as a result of a Tampa Bay Rays-style commitment to developing draft picks, or by putting together a group of complimentary pieces that includes solid guys that don't attract the spotlight to go with the A-Rods in the middle of the lineup. When I say solid guys, by the way, I don't mean sucky guys with guts. I mean...ugh...Kevin Youkilis. That leaves a bad taste in my mouth but it illustrates the kind of professional ballplayer that does the things that win games (no errors, plus .400 OBP, occasional power) without making headlines or drawing the $200 million salary. When a guy like that wins, and in the process kills his rival, it feels so, so good for his fans and hurts all the more for his enemies. That's poetic justice and that's what we've been missing for a while. The mythological. The poetic. The compelling story that makes the 162 game season an epic rather than a grind or a tabloid-to-tabloid living that frustrates as much as intrigues.

Join me this season to follow this story and hopefully we can piece together the essence of what satisfies us most about being fans of a storied franchise. The story.

Trade Matsui?

2008-05-30T23:31:00.001-07:00

I don't get around here to post very often, so this may go completely unnoticed, but I want to remind Yankee fans that a very large number of loud voices screamed to trade Hideki Matsui this offseason, with Noah Lowry one of the main figures at the other end of the equation. I called those people hoping for this trade nuts, and here we have a note that tells the story best:

Noah Lowry - SP - Giants
Giants transferred LHP Noah Lowry from the 15-day to the 60-day disabled list.
Lowry has already missed 60 days. He's out indefinitely after a setback with his surgically repaired forearm, but the hope is that he'll resume playing catch within a week or so.
May. 31 - 12:33 a.m. ET

Plus, Hideki Matsui is batting .339/.414/.495 and has been a rock in the middle of the lineup while Posada, Jeter, and A-Rod have all missed time. Where would we be right now without Godzilla? I'm just asking?

Ugh

2008-04-29T16:59:00.000-07:00

Superman Returns

2008-04-27T13:05:00.001-07:00

Who Are These Yankees?

2008-04-25T09:11:00.000-07:00

The same question might be asked of the Orioles, Tigers, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Dodgers, and Padres to start. The open to the season has produced a strange imbalance in the Force. Teams that have been perennial division leaders have underperformed and a number of exciting clubs have overperformed to begin the year. This isn't unique to the 2008 season, but the annual surprises always....well.....surprise.

With that bit of convoluted logic, I want to look at the Yankees slow start and talk about a few interesting things that may slip below the mainstream radar (or not).

1. The Bench

When was the last time we've had this kind of bench. Morgan Ensberg has played very well at both 1st and 3rd, and has produced nicely at the bottom of the order. Bengie Molina did a fantastic job filling in for Jorge before he was hurt and then Chad Moeller stepped in without missing a beat. Gonzalez actually outplayed Jeter while he was in the lineup and in the field, mainly thanks to a slow start and an injury to the Captain, but who thought you'd get a temporary upgrade during that stretch? So far, so good. I'm liking Cash Money's work here.

2. The Young Guns

Everyone knew that Hughes and Kennedy would have their ups and downs this season, but who figured that all the downs would come at the start of the season? I'm not so surprised by Kennedy's struggles since he's really only getting his feet wet, but Phil Hughes pitched in a playoff game last season, and pitched very very well. He almost threw a no hitter against the Texas Rangers in hitter-friendly Arlington. Is he trying too hard to impress? Is he feeling the pressure? He threw more first pitch strikes in his abbreviated start yesterday, which is a good sign, but he'll need 4-5 quality starts to pull his ERA out of the cellar. He is the most important player on this club in 2008 and he needs to get it going. I have some faith that he will, since his promotions have always resulted in a rough patch before he adjusts and dominates. Maybe breaking Spring Training with the big boys was a bigger transition than we thought.

3. Cano's Woes

How does Robbie Cano go from 60 to zero in 2 seconds? He was awful to start 2007 and now he's repeating himself. In fairness, he's had very good at bats lately and has stung the ball for a few loud outs. He'll crank it up soon. I think he must play poorly in cold weather, which he has to work out before October.

4. Giambi is Toast

I thought the Spring might prove me wrong, but we all see what Jason Giambi is now. He's a .230 hitter with a great eye and a gut full of TNT. He's basically Dave Kingman with more walks. That's not an awful thing, but it's not something I want on my club. Especially a club that has a $200 million budget. I can't wait until he's out the door at the end of the year. I don't know if the Yankees plan to go after Mark Texeira, knowing that Boras is his agent, but I'd take a decent glove with 20 home run power and a .280/.370/.475 batting line for half the price. I'm thinking of a Youkilis, Garko, Casey Kotchman type player. Somewhere in that range. Maybe that's easier said than done, but those players were all minor leaguers at one point and there have to be more growing somewhere.

5. Aging

Damon, Giambi, Abreu, Matsui, Posada, Mussina, Pettitte, Mariano

Those players are all getting up there, although some have been good and some have been bad. Giambi and Mussina are off the books in the off season, so I have no worries. Posada and Mariano are locked up for awhile and I have no beef. Damon and Matsui will open the new Stadium with the team, but you have to wonder if they'll be around any longer than that. I'd give Matsui even odds, but Damon is a lock to be gone. Abreu is an intriguing case. He's still good, but you don't want to sign him to anything more than a year this off season, if you don't have to. His decline might be offset by a good eye, but he's no spring chicken and you have some talented outfielders in the system eyeing an opportunity. If he takes a one year deal, I think the Yankees jump on resigning him. If he takes a two year deal, they probably do it. Anything more, and I have to say, "No!"

This is an issue for the 2008 season because our minor leagues may have some answers to the voids in the lineup coming soon. Obviously Montero is mashing in the lower levels and should step in for Posada if he can play any kind of defense behind the plate. Jackson, Tabata, and Gardner will be showing off for Damon/Matsui/Abreu's spots. We might see some of the bullpen futures up with the Yankees as the season progresses. Will we see Juan Miranda?

The face of the team is slowly changing, and there will be a lot more focus on the youngsters if the team is mired in mediocrity as long as they were last season. A youth movement has started since camp broke, but it might explode if the aged vets don't get their asses in gear.

Move Damon Down

2008-04-15T13:19:00.000-07:00

I've been chattering behind the scenes since the end of last season that the Yankees should move Johnny Damon to the bottom of the order. It's not that he's a bad player. Far from it. I simply believe that his best days are behind him and more importantly that the best strategy is to put your best hitters in a position to get more at bats during each game and during the season. Better hitters getting more at bats means more runs means more wins. Every win is precious.

I had a nice back and forth with a friend who believes in Damon at the top of the order, citing his ability to take pitches and foul others off. I suppose the thinking there is that the following hitters will see more pitches prior to their plate appearances. I think that's a secondary consideration at best. The most precious commodity in baseball is outs. You get 27 per game and 3 per inning. Your best players are the guys that make less outs. There's more to it than that of course, but it's a great starting point. Your leadoff hitter's most important job is to not make an out. It may only come up once per game that the inning starts with him, but he will get at least an extra at bat in most contests. If that player ends up making less outs per plate appearance, it follows that your team will score more runs. To that end, I looked at the 2007 Yankees and ranked them according to their Total Outs/PA. Here's how it shook out for the regulars, which excludes any of the first basemen.

Posada .604
A-Rod .605
Matsui .650
Jeter .654
Abreu .658
Damon .662
Cano .683
Melky .709

Noteworthy is Jorge Posada's historical season last year. The only catcher in MLB history to hit over .330 with 20 home runs, 40 doubles, and 90 RBI at the age of 35+. He was the toughest out among Yankee regulars by a thousandth of a point over the MVP. If you project these numbers, or some representative version of them, to 2008 it's hard to argue for Damon getting more plate appearances than the top 5. I think the ideal Yankee lineup, and I've said this before, is:

Derek Jeter
Bobby Abreu
Alex Rodriguez
Hideki Matsui
Jorge Posada
Jason Giambi
Robinson Cano
Melky Cabrera
Johnny Damon

Alternatively:

Bobby Abreu
Derek Jeter
Robinson Cano
Alex Rodriguez
Hideki Matsui
Jorge Posada
Jason Giambi
Melky Cabrera
Johnny Damon

The 2nd lineup is my preferred configuration because it sorts out lefty-righty better and puts Cano in a better RBI position, but the 1st lineup gets A-Rod more at bats and puts Posada and Giambi in front of Cano for those same RBI chances. The point, either way, is that Johnny Damon's combination of greater out potential and lower isolated power (.126 to Cano's .182 in 2007) is better suited for the bottom of the lineup. As a #9 hitter (or #8 at best), Damon would still put tremendous pressure on opposing pitchers who have been worked over by the better hitters. By the time they get to the point where there's supposed to be an easy out there's a guy that sees 4+ pitches per at bat and can beat you with a little speed. He's no slouch down there and would probably be the best #9 hitter in the sport. At #1 he's league average at best, and possibly worse.

Bill James has famously noted that batting order makes no difference, but I'd rather have a lineup where the tougher outs get more at bats. Just my opinion.

Memo to Phil Hughes

2008-04-13T17:43:00.000-07:00

Man up. Throw strikes. Stop being a poo-cee.

Very Wang Collection

2008-04-11T19:01:00.000-07:00

If Bobby Abreu could jump and Coco Crisp couldn't bunt....well, we might have had a no-hitter against the Red Sox at Fenway. I wasn't thrilled with Wang after the terrible performances against Cleveland in the 2007 ALDS, and even entertained the thought of including him in a trade package for Johan Santana. His 2008 season has started unbelievably well and it's clear to me that, health provided, he should challenge 20 wins again this year. The thing that I've noticed about Wang this season is that he's really able to work a wider arsenal of pitches than at any time since being called up to the Big Leagues. The slider looks great and the splitter looks even better than it did last season. He's too sexy for Fenway....too sexy for Fenway....too sexy todaaaaaaaay.

See you tomorrow. Go Yankees!!!!!!!

Existential Farnsworth

2008-04-09T18:44:00.000-07:00

I'm watching the rainy Game Two against the Royals in Kansas City and Kyle Farnsworth is walking the ballpark. A home run, two walks, and an RBI single have been allowed on an array of really unimpressive pitches. Farnsworth either seems to overthrow or try to be too fine. He never just throws. That's nothing new. He's Kyle Farnsworth and unfortunately he's ours.

My question tonight is....

What hurts more, watching Farnsworth blow a game in reverse or watching Farnsworth blow a game in normal, forward progression?

Your moment of zen.

Bright and Dark Spots

2008-04-02T21:48:00.001-07:00

Nobody likes to lose. I don't like to lose. I don't want to lose tomorrow. Baseball is often graced with subplots in winning and losing efforts, however, and it's important to note them to keep perspective on the marathon that it 162+ games. Here's my stab at Game Two bright and dark spots:

Johnny Damon
Bright: He looked okay in the outfield and may have stolen a homer from Alex Rios.
Dark: His bat hasn't amounted to much from the start of camp, and he doesn't belong leading off.

Derek Jeter
Bright: Did his best to get on base twice and is off to a decent start.
Dark: His throws to first have been very bad so far this season.

Bobby Abreu
Bright: Making A-Rod's job easier and looks poised to score 150 runs this season.
Dark: Thrown out with A-Rod at the plate and 2 outs. Ouch.

Alex Rodriguez
Bright: Mashing at bats. Great glove at 3rd.
Dark: Struck out as the tying run in the bottom of the 9th.

Jason Giambi
Bright: Still looks very good at 1st.
Dark: Terrible at bats. He looks lost at the plate. Missing fat HR pitches every time out.

Robinson Cano
Bright: Still remember Spring Training.....?
Dark: Not a great at bat so far. Not getting good wood on any balls in play yet.

Hideki Matsui
Bright: He's playing.
Dark: No good at bats yet. He looks confused as the DH and that's something to watch.

Jose Molina
Bright: Still hitting well. Solid behind the plate.
Dark: Posada's not in the game after one day. Mussina vs. Posada animosity, or injury?

Melky Cabrera
Bright: Still hitting and playing good defense. Plus-plus season in store.
Dark: Missed a tough but catchable ball giving Overbay a triple. (nit-picking)

Mike Mussina
Bright: Three double play balls and an 11-3 GO/AO ratio.
Dark: .393 OBP against and only 2 Ks. He has nothing left to put batters away.

LaTroy Hawkins
Bright: Strikes were well located.
Dark: Let hitters off the hook and got hurt. Wearing Paul O'Neill's #21.

Kyle Farnsworth
Bright: Looks better this season. Decent rhythm and good pace.
Dark: Still has trouble with control forcing him to throw hittable strikes.

Ross Ohlendorf
Bright: 9 pitches to retire 3 batters. 2 GO and a strikeout. Dominating.
Dark: Hit Scutaro with his first pitch. (nerves?)

There you have it. I think the things to watch going forward are Giambi's first 2 weeks, Matsui's progress as DH, Posada's health, Melky's bat, Mussina's ERA, and Ohlendorf's scoreless innings streak. See you tomorrow. Go Yankees!!!!

Open for Business

2008-04-02T09:42:00.000-07:00

It's exciting to be back. I was so happy to have the Yankees back, playing games that count and that matter, I watched both the live contest and the rebroadcast on YES. I couldn't get enough. I didn't chime in very much during Spring Training, mainly because there's already so much speculation and "coverage" out there during the warm up to the regular season that I just didn't think my two cents was going to add anything. There's nothing worse that being redundant and unoriginal, so I leave the hard work to my good friend Pete Abraham, Alex Belth and Cliff Corcoran, Steve Lombardi, and the River Avenue Blues boys. Of course there are others, but those are the people that I started out with as a blogger and they've both supported me and produced top quality work on the Yankees that keeps me going. Dave Pinto is outstanding and my colleagues at Baseball Prospectus keep us all on our toes with respect to the overall sport. Of course there is also Baseball America on the case. I'll stop there because I could go on and on. I'm a baseball junkie.

One of the things I'm most excited about this year is Joe Girardi's leadership. I was on my soapbox during Joe G's playing days, shouting to the hilltops that he was a future Yankee manager in the making. I really wanted it to happen then and saw it possibly slipping away as he went to the Cubs and the Marlins and won the Manager of the Year in the tropics. Fortunately, the people who run the Marlins are a mess and we took advantage of their mistake. Joe is enthusiastic and passionate. He's organized, demanding, and powerful. I liked Joe Torre, and wavered between loving him and believing it was time for a change. In the end, I think the time for change was upon us and I think the leadership of the franchise was very smart to put Joe G in a position to spark the roster to life. He's awake during games and actively engaged in every moment. He's hungry to prove himself, and to get that ring.

I'm excited about the youth movement. This is a competitive AL field and the youth may not be up to getting us to the playoffs. I'll stand up and say it before we get into a pennant race. There is doubt. The thing is, I don't care. I firmly believe that this group of young players, and the group waiting in the wings for their chance, are future world champions. If there are growing pains to be had, let it happen. We'll be better off for it as a franchise. That said, there's no reason to believe that a roster as powerful as ours can't storm into the playoffs anyway. Outside the Detroit Tigers, there isn't a lineup as good as ours in the entire sport. Hughes, Joba, Kennedy, Ohlendorf, Patterson, Horne, Sanchez, Jackson, Gardener, and maybe a few others figure to play some role for the team in 2008. That's not even considering Melky and Cano, who are impact players already.

As for the vets, I'm excited about another year of A-Rod excellence. I'm excited to watch the final few years of Posada and Mariano. I'm excited to see what Giambi does playing 1st on a regular basis. I'm excited to see what big moments Jeter can produce. I'm excited about a full year of Bobby Abreu brilliance. I think he's going to have an outstanding season.

What I'm not excited about...I'm not excited about watching Matsui and Damon in decline, trying to cobble together a good left field. I'm not excited about Mike Mussina and the uncertainty he brings start to start. I'm not excited about anything related to Kei Igawa. I'm not excited about anything related to Kyle Farnsworth. I'm not excited about being reminded that Carl Pavano is still on our payroll. I'm not excited about Bob Sheppard's shaky health.

The Stadium is something to be excited about. Which stadium? Both, of course. The retirement of the House that Ruth Built will be a huge highlight this season and a big reason to push for the World Series. It's almost a divine right that Yankee Stadium should be retired after the Series. The All Star Game will be spectacular, whatever happens on the field. The new stadium updates are something to be excited about. What we've seen already is unreal. It's a Romanesque structure with all the gaudy, showy power of an Imperial palace.

Can you tell I'm excited. Well, we're 1-0 and on the right track. See you tomorrow. Go Yankees!!!

The Giambi Saga

2008-02-18T13:32:00.000-08:00

On this day when Andy Pettitte stands up to face the music, I'm choosing to look at another prominent Yankee known to have abused PEDs. Pettitte, for his part, said what he had to say and was extremely humble in doing do. Giambi cooperated with multiple investigations over the years and has been one of the only players involved in this juiced era to have fessed up to his "crimes", at least behind closed doors.

Pettitte will go out a beloved son of the Yankees farm system, a champion, and an ultimately flawed human being like the rest of us. Some of the shine is off the legend of Andy Pettitte, but it's hard to forget what the team did from 1996-2001, prior to his admitted use of HGH. Giambi, on the other hand, came to the Yankees after the magic was over and has done little to bring glory back to the Bronx. He's had his moments in pinstripes and we've made the playoffs every year that he's been in our uniform, but the question has to be asked of the post 2001 Yankees, "What was this group made of?"

One of the first thing you have to discuss is the payroll of the 2002-2008 Yankees and the idea that big name, high ticket players would bring another set of rings to the franchise. It hasn't and a lot of money has been thrown away in the process. Of course, Brian Cashman is trying to right the ship on this front and will make a huge step in that direction this season with the young pitchers. The bigger step will be taken next season when some big contracts come off the books. Jason Giambi is at the center of that and really is the symbol for the 2002-2008 version of the Bronx Bombers. Lots of offense, lots of wins, no titles.

It's not fair to lay any of this on Giambi. For his part, he's produced a lot of positive results with his bat and when you look at his total body of work for the Yankees, he's only missed significant time in two seasons, 2004 and 2007. For the Yankees, Giambi has produced a batting line of .263/.410/.525 and has averaged 38 home runs per 162 games. In some seasons, those would be close to MVP numbers. If he'd managed to hold any of his prolific batting average ratios in New York, he'd probably have one in our uniform. From 2002-2007 Jason Giambi hit the 16th most home runs in all of baseball despite missing half of two seasons. He's 7th in OBP and 25th in SLG over the same time. He actually has been hit by more pitches than everyone in the sport over that stretch, other than David Eckstein, Jason Kendall, and Craig Biggio.

A few things have worked against Jason Giambi since his arrival. His slow start certainly set off his time as a Yankee on the wrong note, and despite that "True Yankee" moment when he beat Minnesota in extra innings, in the rain, with that grand slam, somehow I think we're still waiting for something. He helped make our big Pedro Martinez comeback in the playoffs, so it's hard to say he never produced in a big game. Still....we're waiting. The steroids issue is a big part of the cloud hanging over Giambi's time in pinstripes, but I'm not sure that it's the morality of his drug use that bothers most Yankee fans. I think it's an unspoken sense that we paid HUGE money for a product that didn't work as well as we thought it would. The breakdown of Giambi's batting average makes that perception very real. Getting on base at a 41% clip and clubbing 35+ home runs every year is impressive, but it's easy for the eyes to process that to the brain if a big chunk of that OBP comes from raking. He hasn't.

We're still waiting for a .320 batting average to go along with all the walks and homers. If he got a hit once every three times up and mixed in some walks, we'd think a lot more highly of him somehow. The perception, I think, is that the drug abuse robbed him of his ability to hit for average. At least, that's my perception. I remember the problems he had with his eyes and his back and wonder how they affected his ability to make consistent contact. We all know that he's patient and when he connects it's going to travel a long way, but even though it goes against my good sense, I think he needed to get a big single or double more often to make us feel like we got our money's worth.

I've had a love/hate relationship with Giambi in his time here. I don't like him all that much. He isn't a classic Yankee. He's a perfect Oakland Athletic to me. That's just an aesthetic sense. When he came to us, and took all that money, I expected him to do what A-Rod has done in the uniform. Even A-Rod's "down years" have matched Giambi's better seasons, but he plays the field and has put up some historic Yankee seasons winning 2 MVPs. Giambi has had success, but it hasn't been of the historic variety. Maybe that's not fair, but when you win an MVP and take $100 million, a lot is expected in the Bronx spotlight. Funny how Giambi has rarely been booed, while A-Rod has had trouble. I guess Giambi is seen as authentic, even authentically flawed, while A-Rod seems a big fake or managed in comparison. I don't get it. I've wanted to boo Giambi 100s more times than I ever thought to boo A-Rod.

What do we expect for 2008? I imagine he should give us the 130-140 games with 35 homers and a ton of walks. I'd guess that he'll sit more this year with the DH role being filled by Matsui and Damon on occasion. He'll carry the team in stretches, but none of it will matter unless a title is brought to the Bronx in October. Whatever the end to the season, however, I think the "Giambi era" will always leave a bad taste in our collective mouths as a period of wasted opportunities. It's not really fair to pin it on Jason, but I'll be honest, I can't wait until he's gone.

I'll cheer for him this season, but when it's all said and done, title or no, I will breathe a sigh of relief when that big contract is off the books and some of the star power that was brought in during the 2002-2008 period is gone. The same can be said of Mike Mussina in many respects. Pavano will be out. Choices will be made on Abreu and Farnsworth and others. 2009 will see Matsui and Damon's contracts expire. We'll see something new, good or bad, but I think I'll feel a lot better with a group of guys less "well known" and less well paid than I have with the Sheffield's and Giambi's and Randy Johnson's of the world. Now, if only we could get back Nick Johnson I'd feel better. Go Yankees!!!

Yu Ready for Darvish?

2008-02-17T18:16:00.000-08:00

Rumors have been floated about a Yu Darvish posting to the Major Leagues after the 2008 season for a few months now. I declined to comment on this situation until I saw it develop or die in the Japanese press and I'm prepared to weigh in as Spring Training breaks.

The rumors indicated that the Yankees have expressed interest in acquiring Darvish via the posting system next season and are reportedly willing to blow away the posting fee that was given to Seibu for Matsuzaka. The Yankees have been scouting the young right-hander since his rookie season (2005) and have relied, apparently, on information from Kazuyuki Shirai who has been the infield coach and the team's #2 in command under Trey Hillman. Shirai participated in a coaching exchange with the Yankees just following his retirement from the NPB in 1997. There is some information out there that Shirai, thanks to his excellent relationship with Hillman, is doing some scouting work for the Royals these days, but I haven't been able to confirm that at this point. He was thought to be a candidate to replace Hillman, but did not in the end.

At this point, the rumors which floated out there in January have not been expounded on anywhere legitimate. The initial reports came via the sports wire in Japan and were printed on Yahoo! Japan's sports page and in the Sponichi and Nikkan Sports daily sports rags. The quality of information we are dealing with is dubious, but hardly a shocker. The main issue with this type of rumor is the feasibility of a move. I can't address anything from an "in-the-know" standpoint, as I think no one in the world beyond the front office of the Fighters and Darvish himself are able to determine the likelihood of a posting move next year. I can, however, deliver my perspective on the situation from the standpoint of a person who stands between Japan and the US and has made a minor career out of covering Japan for Baseball Prospectus.

Some reports have attributed quotes to Darvish about his lack of interest in playing in the United States but I have never seen or read anything to that effect, other than unattributed quotes. Even the Wikipedia entry on Darvish fails to attribute a source to that comment. I have always operated under the assumption that he did make a comment about his lack of interest in the Majors simply to be conservative in my analysis of his possible future in the States. I've paid very careful attention to Darvish for 3 years now and make it a point to stay on top of everything Darvish. You might know my work at Darvish Watch, although I gave up posting there mid-season last year to concentrate on graduate work.

Darvish has opened up to the possibility of playing in the Majors by my best analysis of his character and posture. His confidence has grown exponentially in the last year and a half and he has dominated the NPB as well as the international circuit. If there were a WBC this year, he'd be Japan's man on the mound charged with repeating. There's nothing Darvish has not done as a professional in Japan, save win an Olympic gold medal. He has a championship, a Sawamura Award, a Konami Cup, and an Asian Championship with the national team. He posted a 1.82 ERA in 2007 and was untouchable. At this point, his only weakness is early trouble with his command, which hurt him in a number of 1st innings last season.

I wrote the following for Baseball Prospectus in 2007, edited to avoid repetition:

Yu Darvish, RHP, Nippon Ham Fighters
Height: 6'5" Weight: 187 Bats: Right Throws: Right Age: 20

Darvish is a 20-year-old stick of dynamite. Born to an Iranian father and a Japanese mother, he has achieved a kind of matinee idol status in Japan for his good looks and big-game ability. Like many Japanese pitchers, he was thrown into the mix at the age of 18, and was asked to start winning right away. His first half-season was an up and down affair, with some very tough moments interspersed by flashes of brilliance.

Manager Trey Hillman has been quoted as saying that Darvish could one day be better than Daisuke Matsuzaka, and is already more advanced at 20 than Daisuke was at that time in his career.

In addition to that information, you might be interesting in knowing that he throws in the mid-to-high 90s with ease and has a wicked slider, change, and sometimes works a cutter. His size projects to much better long term success than Daisuke Matsuzaka. He has room to fill out his upper body as he is still only 22-years old, but his lower body is relatively thick and generates power at a Major League level. Darvish married a beautiful actress/talent this season after the couple learned that she was pregnant with their first child. Saeko Darvish has done work on the variety television circuit, some dramatic work, and some of the standard sexy bikini videos that young idols are generally obligated to do in Japan.

The speculation about Darvish and the Yankees has been described in terms of financial interest by the Japanese rumor mill, mainly identifying the 2009 open of the new Yankee Stadium and the simultaneous expiration of Hideki Matsui's contract. The press have focused on the Yankees' desire to maintain a strong Japanese base and see Darvish as the logical target to provide continuity. The speculation also surrounds Darvish and the 2009 season because the Olympics will provide an international forum for the young man to showcase his abilities as Matsuzaka did in the WBC. The price for Darvish may never be higher than it is now according to some, although I tend to think a good showing at the 2009 WBC is a perfect spot to elevate value thanks to the higher level of competition as compared to the amateurish Olympics.

If I were a betting man, and sometimes I am, I would tend to bet against Darvish being posted after this season. I think it would be far more likely that he would be posted after the 2009 season, or not at all. The factors that could prove me wrong are obvious. Money talks, for one. If the Yankees are aggressively floating dollars out there in the rumor mill that exceed Matsuzaka's fee, it would be foolhardy for Nippon Ham to turn their backs completely. The meat packing company is financially strong, but is hardly in a position to turn down $100 million. (That number is simply pulled out of my ass for the purpose of illustrating a point.)

The final question to deal with is the feasibility of a big money posting by the Yankees or someone else. In my opinion, if the Red Sox $50+ million is a benchmark for Darvish, I can't see why a substantially higher number isn't reasonable for Darvish. Why? Darvish is better than Matsuzaka was at 22. He's got projectable size at 6'5" and a good frame to continue developing. He has a complete arsenal and can pitch 9 innings every time out without batting an eyelash. He is the only player on Earth capable of being a bigger marketing boon than Ichiro in Japan. He's truly a rock star. At 23, Darvish would be under a team's control until his 29th birthday provided he could get a deal of that length from the winner of his posting fee. He hasn't even hit his prime yet.

I'll be following Darvish full time at Darvish Watch this season, so make sure to stop by there and take in each start. I will be living in Japan full time again in late May and will do my best to live blog each of his starts from that point forward. In the meantime, stop by and take a look at the style of the blog and read up on what I've done so far. I'll be updating the remainder of the 2007 season in some form very soon.

Fresh for 2008, Booooooy!!!!

2008-02-16T14:17:00.000-08:00

The offseason has been tough. I had so much grad work to do that I hardly felt inspired to write about why the team should or shouldn't resign Doug Mientkiewicz, or why there should be personal beer taps on the backs of every seat at the new stadium. Priorities were made and posting was sparse.

Pitchers and catchers are now back in action in Tampa and the former Legends Field, now known as George M. Steinbrenner Field. There will be a lot to talk about in the coming weeks and Canyon of Heroes is dedicated to getting back into action. In the days and weeks to come, I will be cranking up the action here and doing some housework at my various Japanese baseball blogs as well. They have suffered the most.

I JUST updated the template here to the "New" blogger, so I'll be working on adding tags to each post, including the work I've done over the last 2+ years. Things look similar under the new arrangement, but there are a few differences as well. I eliminated some of the links from the "old" COH, including many of the Yankee blogs out there. If you are one of those blogs, and you plan to be active this season, give me a shout and I'll put you back up there. If you notice anything out of whack with the updated template, send that along as well.

The plan is to write about Yu Darvish and the Yankees, Giambi and his role this season, and any Spring Training news that may be on the tongues and blogs in Yankeeland. Come back. Spread the word that I'm back in action, and go Yankees!!!

An Omen!!

2008-02-03T21:42:00.000-08:00

NEW YORK BEATS BOSTON!!!!!!!!!! Next stop Spring Training!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Johan Santana Goes to Shea

2008-01-29T14:08:00.000-08:00

USA Today is reporting, as are Mike and the Mad Dog, that Johan Santana has been traded to the New York Mets in exchange for outfield prospect Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey. Huh?

Yes, Bill Smith pulled the trigger on this deal but wouldn't take Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and a middle tier prospect of some kind. He should lose his job if the Mets guys don't pan out to be well above league average performers. If you pass up on the offers the Yankees and Red Sox had on the table and let them eventually disintegrate, and then subtle for a package of players that don't pan out to be anything more than league average at best and below league average at worst, you should be fired.

You have a few chances to make your mark as a GM. Cashman's record is spotty with the Pavanos of the world to his name, but he has also done remarkable things with the minor league system and so on. Theo has his share of clunkers too, but he has 2 World Series titles in his tenure and some bold moves that have panned out fairly well. Neither GM has been in the position to deal a 1st ballot Hall of Famer, which is where the lower payroll GMs make their mark. Smith had a marquee moment as a new player on the scene and he blew it big time. He may have blown it to the tune of Scott Kazmir is the Mets guys end up as a pile of junk. His hands were tied, so he gets a little wiggle room, but when you realize that the Twins could have had Phil Hughes had they been less pig-headed, there's a place for Smith alongside Steve Phillips.

I hope the Mets finalize the deal. Santana fits there like a glove and he stays out of our hair. The Mets need this kind of moment to erase the collapse of 2007. Good luck Omar. Don't let down the Shea faithful.

Hakuho Champion

2008-01-27T11:51:00.000-08:00

This may seem strange to many of you, but sumo is one of the finest sports on the planet. If you've never watched, it might look like a bunch of fat guys smashing against each other for 5-10 seconds before one of them takes an unfortunate fall. You'd wonder how this behemoth was going to right himself like a turtle who's rolled onto the back of his shell. Spending the better part of the last 4 years of my life in Japan, I've become a fan(atic) and really appreciate the subtlety of the technique and the raw power of these athletes. They look fat, but the muscle mass beneath the flab would put an offensive lineman to shame. The very fact that these guys can master balance at their size is mind-blowing.

Anyway, the Hatsubasho (New Year's Tournament) has just come to an amazing conclusion. Each tournie is 15 days. The rikishi (wrestlers) face one another according to rankings at the start, and the daily matchups are adjusted according to record as the proceedings go on. There are currently two Yokozuna (Grand Champions), both of whom are Mongolians. On one side there is Asashoryu, who is something like the Mike Tyson of sumo. He doesn't play by the rules in his civilian life and some have accused him of buying wins in the ring. Whatever his transgressions, he is a freight train who puts the fear of God into his opponents. He is a force of nature. On the other hand, there is my favorite rikishi of all time, Hakuho. His father was a Grand Champion in Mongolia and he has risen to the top at a very young age thanks to a commitment to excellence and a variety of techniques. He has strength and balance, but he is the complete package, a chess player in the ring. He is Ali.

These two guys ended up tied on the final day of the tournament and the buzz in the arena was palpable. I present to you via the magic of YouTube the final match. Only in the offseason......Hakuho is on the left and Asashoryu is on the right....

Yogi "Can"berra

2008-01-26T09:57:00.000-08:00

Browsing my favorite blogs, I stumbled across the news that the Yankees have signed two Australian teenagers in recent days. Ever the curious follower of the prospect follies, I did a little digging and came up with a couple of articles and photos for you.

Nathan Aron - IF/OF (16) 6'1", 185

Aron is from Dingley, Victoria and has played for the U14 and U16 clubs in his region. He plays for the same team (Cheltenham) as Australian hero Travis Blackley, who has spent limited time in the Majors with both Seattle and San Francisco. Aron projects as a decent power hitter based largely on size. The only picture I could dig up on the young man is from 2004, when he was 13 years old. He is at the far left and looks rather unimpressive. A current photo would help out a lot.

Kyle Perkins - C (16)

Perkins signed a 7-year deal with the Yankees after being scouted in an U-18 event. The Australians have seen a lot of potential in Perkins and tabbed him eventually for the national team. Interesting to see if he ever pans out and plays in the WBC or at the Olympics. I don't expect much in terms of MLB service (for either of these guys), but the organization is committed to finding talent everywhere and using all its resources to go global. This was equally true of the signing of the two Chinese kids, although I would tend to believe the chances of the two Aussies making the Show have to be exponentially better. I don't have the height and weight details on Perkins, but this photo is current.

Tom Cruise Knows More About Advanced Metrics than You

2008-01-25T23:13:00.000-08:00

At least he appears to know a lot more than me. All this shit about SP and PTSP, and KSW, and LRH.....he must be onto some new shit. PECOTA and WARP....poooo....blllrrbbbb

Seriously, get this lunatic some help please. Watch this whole thing and translate it into English. I beg of you.

I'm Back and So is Cano

2008-01-25T11:29:00.001-08:00

It's been a long time. Thanks for your patience. My trip to Japan went awry when I fell ill with a horrible, evil virus that can only be attributed to the Red Sox. I'm back in NYC, hard at work, and ready to head down the stretch until pitchers and catchers report in 20 days!

I'll get to Yu Darvish and the Yankees in good time, but the news that Robinson Cano is back in the fold (according to the NY Post) is a smart, smart move. It's hard to believe that the young man was only making $400k+ last season, but that's all now moot. 4-years at a total of $30 million averages out to a little more than $7 million per, by my math. Chase Utley just got 7-years at $85 million, which averages out to $12 million per. Brian Roberts is on a contract that pays him $7 million per. Jeff Kent averages about $10 million per on his current deal.

This is good business for the Yankees. By buying out his arbitration years, the Yankees are being fair with a player that stands to be the best or second best 2Bman in the sport for the foreseeable future. That means he can work with them on his FA years with a reasonable attitude. What he stands to become is worth the investment. If he ends up as the top 2Bman (at least in the AL) over the next 4 seasons, they have a bargain. I still stand on my prediction of a year ago that Cano could eventually hit as well as Don Mattingly, minus a little of the home run power.

For the record, and I'll harp on this a lot before the season starts, my perfect Yankee batting order for the upcoming season would look like this:

Abreu
Jeter
Cano
A-Rod
Posada
Matsui
Duncan
Damon
Melky

Cano deserves to hit in the 3-hole at this point, and Abreu (like it or not) should be at the top of the order with a .400 OBP and the ability to steal 20-25 bases. Damon is a shadow of his former self and would do better with less at bats. With more at bats, I expect Cano to do the 100-100 thing with 50 doubles and 20-25 homers. Let's make it happen Joe G.

LoHudness

2008-01-06T02:01:00.000-08:00

Hello COH fans and newcomers. You might be checking in during your normal browsing routine, or maybe this is your first time by the Canyon. Either way, welcome.

This will be short as I`m holed up in an internet cafe in rural Akita, Japan right now as a blizzard rages outside. I`ll be here another week and have little access to post. Here`s what`s in store over the next couple of weeks here at COH (in addition to any breaking Yankees news):

* The Yankees and Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish
* My thoughts on Spring Training
* Jason Giambi v.2008
* Yankee Memories: Joe Girardi

and more. Stay Tuned. Thanks for dropping by. Make COH a favorite.
Mike.

Blockbuster Post

2007-12-23T11:45:00.001-08:00

Y'know how Hollywood waits until X-mas to put out really big hits destined for Oscar contention? The same goes for baseball blogging. Flotsam Media just mocked up a great new stat called GRIT (General Requirements of Intangible Talent) and we all have some thanking to do. This is a new metric that will revolutionize mockery everywhere, and I'm tempted to petition Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus to add it to their data sets. (I'm dead serious).

Go take a look at this brilliant piece of work and thank the Gods for blogs (Steven A. Smith, Bill Conlin, and Murray Chass be damned).

Hat tip to the eternally excellent FJM.

Santana to Boston....maybe

2007-12-23T11:11:00.000-08:00

More stupid Johan talk. Apparently, the Globe is reporting that the Red Sox will score Santana if the Yankees don't include Ian Kennedy in their deal, and soon. I laugh.

If Minnesota wants to take the Red Sox flotsam for Santana, congratulations. More power to you in Fenway. I think the Sox have finally crossed over into Steinbrenner territory and while there's no guarantee that the highest payroll in the sport is going to win you the Series, they are adopting our former ways. Great. They are the same as us. Makes for a more interesting rivalry.

I think it would be great to have Santana, but giving up more than we've offered is beyond insane. You don't need the best pitcher in the sport to win it all, as much as it helps. Having 3 top quality starters at bargain basement prices is more valuable to me and is more conducive to dynasty building, where Santana would be a win now deal.

Here's hoping that he's a Red Sox and that we beat his ass repeatedly.

60 Minutes

2007-12-17T10:42:00.000-08:00

I missed the live airing of A-Rod on 60 Minutes last night, but I just finished watching the clips available at CBS.com and I've come away with a few impressions.

First, A-Rod is very very controlled. This isn't new. We all know that he is extraordinarily image conscious. He was deliberate in his answers and tried to remain focused throughout the interview.

Second, he denied using PEDs of any kind. I don't believe he did, but it's irrelevant at this point. We'll never know who did and who didn't, so any successful player is open to scrutiny. I choose to believe him. The disingenuous remarks, to me, were his denial of direct knowledge of any player's use of PEDs. He was very "blinky" throughout his answer, and while I don't expect him to sell anyone out or admit to being a silent enabler of drug abuse, I find it hard to believe that ANY player alive didn't know what was going on, or see something suspicious. These guys spend way too much time together.

Third, Katie Couric has to be the worst interviewer in the history of television. She looks and sounds like someone on mood enhancing drugs and she was completely overmatched in that interview. She clearly has no functional knowledge of baseball or sports in general and sounded like a dimwit trying to ask A-Rod about his swing. I'm biased because I think she's one of the most egregious examples of news as entertainment there is, and that's one of my pet causes. She's vapid, cotton candy and has no place in a serious conversation of any kind. I picture her sitting on the floor with a chimpanzee playing marbles and cooing about how well the chimp uses his opposable thumbs. Giggle.

I wish someone like Charlie Rose had conducted the interview. Couldn't they at least get Ed Bradley?

Pettitte Speaks

2007-12-15T14:42:00.000-08:00

Andy Pettitte made a statement today regarding his use of HGH. Here is the good majority of the AP article that is important to understanding this as a human issue.

"Andy Pettitte used human growth hormone to recover from an elbow injury in 2002, the "If what I did was an error in judgment on my part, I apologize," Pettitte said Saturday in a statement released by his agent. "I accept responsibility for those two days."

"In 2002 I was injured. I had heard that human growth hormone could promote faster healing for my elbow," Pettitte said in the statement released to The Associated Press by agent Randy Hendricks.

"I felt an obligation to get back to my team as soon as possible. For this reason, and only this reason, for two days I tried human growth hormone. Though it was not against baseball rules, I was not comfortable with what I was doing, so I stopped.

"This is it -- two days out of my life; two days out of my entire career, when I was injured and on the disabled list," he said. "I wasn't looking for an edge. I was looking to heal."

Pettitte was not linked to steroids in the report, and he emphasized he never had never used them.

"I have the utmost respect for baseball and have always tried to live my life in a way that would be honorable," he said. "If I have let down people that care about me, I am sorry, but I hope that you will listen to me carefully and understand that two days of perhaps bad judgment should not ruin a lifetime of hard work and dedication.

"I have tried to do things the right way my entire life, and, again, ask that you put those two days in the proper context. People that know me will know that what I say is true," he said.

I think this set of remarks shows that mistakes can be made that aren't related to overt cheating. Not everyone involved in this report was looking to affect on field performance or transform themselves into a hulking home run hitter or fireballing ace. It doesn't excuse Pettitte for violating the ethics of the sport, if not the law, but it does explain a lot. If we believe the connection of Roger Clemens to the allegations in the report, that's a different story. Clemens prolonged his career by years and earned tens of millions of dollars in doing so. He stayed on top of his form well beyond the shelf life of his body, due to prolonged cycles of drugs....again, if true.

If any one of us, under pressure to perform our work or schooling despite physical weariness or mental exhaustion, pop Adderall or load up on speed does that make us a pariah? If we do it once or twice and realize the error of our ways, does that mean we should be lumped in with serial abusers and cocaine addicts? There has to be some perspective beyond the whitewashing of Mitchell Report names as a clan of monsters. We, as fans, have to think more critically than many of us are to see the complexity of the issue and the variety of issues at stake. The media, for its part, should treat its news with similar sensitivity.

It makes me sick to see the Red Sox blogs loading up on this. Even FJM, for all its good work, is guilty of broadly condemning every name in the report without ever stopping to consider how accurate it is, or at what level each name is involved. Boston Dirt Dogs has an entertaining bent on the Sox and Yankees most of the time. They rib, and poke, and rub us the wrong way, but they generally stay above the filth of the fray. Not this time. They are almost reveling in the news that several Yankees were involved, without ever ONCE acknowledging that Mitchell is a Red Sox employee and did very little to specifically investigate the Red Sox. There may or may not be a manifestation of the apparent conflict of interest in the report, but regardless it is out there and is a part of this public discourse. Failing to acknowledge it while simultaneously taking liberties in the portrayal of Yankees in their gleeful treatment of the topic is classless.

I think it's unfortunate that Andy did what he did. I believe his version of the story, and I think there is room to put his story in perspective. He was honest about his involvement and owned up to the wrongness of his participation in this mess. It doesn't erase the past, but it does put it in perspective. Giambi for his part has taken a similar path, although never coming right out and spilling the beans. The difference between Pettitte and Giambi, and the reason that I still like Pettitte where I can't stand Giambi is that Andy made a short term mistake and reversed course. Giambi fueled an entire career and made 100s of millions of dollars by doping. He is bearing the effects of his doping today and is virtually useless to the team as a result.

The bashing of Pettitte and the public shame will never disappear as long as he shall live. It's over for Andy Pettitte. He's as big a stain on the landscape of baseball as Barry Bonds. That's due to the naming of names without appropriate context. Now that the context is here, it doesn't matter because the mythology is already established and the horse is out of the barn. If only the general public were a little smarter and a little better at thinking critically. That's too much too ask though. As long as people spend more time watching SportsCenter than they do reading books, that's the culture we have created. Alas.

Lost in the Shuffle

2007-12-13T19:25:00.001-08:00

Lost in the Mitchell Shuffle was the news that the Rangers released Akinori Otsuka. I believe they are on the verge of signing former Rakuten closer Kazuo Fukumori, so they drop one Japanese reliever in favor of another. The Yankees might want to think about Otsuka as a short term bullpen guy. He'll be 36 before the start of next season, and he's coming off an injury plagued 2007, but he's a gifted pitcher with a successful past.

Career, between San Diego and Texas, Otsuka posted a 2.44 ERA in 232 innings of relief. He saved 32 games for Texas in 2006 and sports a G/F ratio of 1.70 over 4 seasons. His strikeout rate has plummeted in recent years, but his G/F has simultaneously risen to almost 2.00 at the same time. He has held batters to a batting line of .222/.289/.311 career. His 2007 salary was $3 million, but you have to think he'd take less to pitch for the Yankees after his injury plagued year last season.

Offer him $2.5 million for one season and bring him in. You could do a lot worse in this market and what do you have to lose? Get on the phone Cashman.

The Mitchell Debacle

2007-12-13T14:09:00.000-08:00

I've been chatting over at Bronx Banter today, and I realized that some of the things I had going there would make for a decent COH post on my feelings today. Here they are, unedited and strung together in a paragraph by paragraph format:

The interesting thing to me is not the content of the report but the existence of the report itself. For months and months the idea of the report as a transformative moment in the sport has permeated discussion. The idea that a bombshell was going to be dropped featuring some of the biggest stars in the sport was common referential context for the whole thing. What it ends up being is a mostly circumstantial, dimly lit path linking a few networks of players. The names are mostly those already suspected or known and the report is going to fizzle into the ether once pitchers and catchers report in February. The importance of the whole research and its place in baseball history is suspect and the hype that has accompanied any discussion of it for all these weeks and months is like everything else in the 24-hour news cycle: sketchy, fleeting trivia.

From the press conference: "Obviously, the players who illegally used performance enhancing substances are responsible for their actions. But they did not act in a vacuum. Everyone involved in baseball over the past two decades – Commissioners, club officials, the Players Association, and players – shares to some extent in the responsibility for the steroids era. There was a collective failure to recognize the problem as it emerged and to deal with it early on. As a result, an environment developed in which illegal use became widespread."

That quote is a perfect illustration of the political whitewashing that the report represents. It does what the 911 Commission did. It does what any politically motivated document does in the current media climate. It provides a catharsis for a societal crisis, perceived or real, by naming a few names, slapping a few wrists, and eventually blaming everyone and no one all at once. That's why I said that the existence of the report is more interesting than the content. It is less a piece of paper with information than a symbolic cleansing of the public palate. It's a facilitator of purgation that allows us to move on. That is the only importance of the document.

The idea is that the report's only value is in the purgative. It draws a picture based largely on filling in the gaps between legal evidence and pure hearsay by insinuation. If that's the best you can do, you should avoid naming names at all. From a legal perspective, I'd guess that the players have no recourse for slander, but from a purely ethical standpoint, with the knowledge that what is printed in the mass media becomes truth via repetition, it would be better to avoid names without hard, damning evidence. The discussion here about Pettitte illustrates that better than anything. Score another one for the corporate government media complex.

This whole thing feels like masturbation, only without the pleasure.

Would this report as a PUBLIC document still have served the same purpose had the names been "redacted"? As a private document, used only for MLB's internal debate on drugs, it may be instructive to have anecdotal evidence linking specific teams and players to the problem. As a PUBLIC document, the only value in naming names is to sexy up the issue for the 24-hour news cycle, blogs, and random water cooler chatter. If you have shaky legal evidence linking a player to this issue, then you have shaky grounds to try him in the court of public opinion as well. If I were the union, I'd make a HUGE HUGE stink over the naming of names on these grounds.

The problem with this report and its release to the public is that it produces a mythology about steroids and baseball in which the main characters are now set in stone. There was no legal basis for the naming of these names, but by mass-mediated communication the mythology becomes ubiquitous. If anyone has the stomach for reading Roland Barthes "Mythologies", he breaks down how the whole process of mythologization works. Wikipedia's entry on his book states, "Barthes refers to the tendency of socially constructed notions, narratives, and assumptions to become "naturalized" in the process, that is, taken unquestioningly as given within a particular culture." I would argue that this is what's happening to Clemens and Pettitte here. Particularly Pettitte. Bonds is a man with direct legal links to this issue. Giambi is also an admitted user, as is (apparently) Sheff. There are others. Pettitte has been linked by this report to performance enhancing drugs with only the most circumstantial evidence, if you can even call it evidence, yet he is lumped in with the legally damned. His name is all over the headlines today. Mass-mediated communication channels have now fueled the mythologization of Pettitte as a PED monster, and he will never be able to extricate himself from it. It's over. That's why the names should have been redacted for public use.

Japanese Free Agents

2007-12-12T15:47:00.000-08:00

I posted a little update on the Japanese free agent crop at Baseball Japan. Headlining the post is the new Cubs' outfielder Kosuke Fukudome. A sneak peek:

Kosuke Fukudome - outfielder
Fukudome signed a 4-year deal worth 48 million with the Chicago Cubs. Those were the numbers I expected as well as the destination. For what it's worth Nate Silver at BP posted the following PECOTA for Fukudome, noting that the numbers are built on a truncated 2007's data. Bump the plate appearances by 100 or so and you get the idea that a 40 double, 20 home run season isn't out of the question. The .905 OPS also looks very nice.

PA   R  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO SB  CS  BA   OBP  SLG  EqA  VORP  WARP
465  80  30  4  15  58  70  94  9   3 .289 .401 .504 .303  29.2  4.4

Matsui to Stay

2007-12-08T10:55:00.000-08:00

Apologies to my good friends at BP, but I thought I'd cut and paste Hideki Matsui's numbers here to make a few points about the current rumors. If you'll notice below, Matsui's career batting line is .295/.371/.485 and in 2007, a year that was supposedly a disappointment, he put up basically those same numbers. How does a guy go from being a clutch, True Yankee, fan favorite to being an almost universally regarded has been? I would argue that people have lost their minds. In order to make this argument without being labeled a Japanese player PR man, which I have been from time to time in the past, I want to use these numbers and others to show why this possible trade is a bad idea.

Actual Batting Statistics

YEAR    G    AB    H  2B  3B  HR    R  RBI   SB   CS   SO   BB   GDP   BA   OBA    SLG
2003  163   623  179  42   1  16   82  106    2    2   86   63    25  .287  .353  .435
2004  162   584  174  34   2  31  109  108    3    0  103   88    11  .298  .390  .522
2005  162   629  192  45   3  23  108  116    2    2   78   63    16  .305  .367  .496
2006   50   172   52   9   0   8   32   29    1    0   23   27     7  .302  .393  .494
2007  143   547  156  28   4  25  100  103    4    2   73   73     9  .285  .367  .488

.     680  2555  753 158  10 103  431  462   12    6  363  314    68  .295  .371  .485

Advanced Batting Statistics

                           <---------ADJUSTED FOR SEASON----->
YEAR  OUT  UEQR    EQA  EQR BRAR BRAA  FRAR FRAA PRAR  WARP1
2003  452    92   .271   86   29    9    1  -12    0    3.3
2004  415   116   .306  107   55   36   -1  -12    0    5.9
2005  447   109   .293  104   47   26    9   -3    0    6.2
2006  122    32   .296   29   14    8    7    5    0    2.3
2007  403    98   .286   88   37   19   -1  -10    0    4.0

.     1839   446   .290  415  181   98   15  -32    0   21.7

Matsui's career EQA is a very respectable .290, and in 2007 he posted a 32.4 VORP and a 4.0 WARP1. Prior to the wrist injury, Matsui had a 43.8 VORP in 2005 and a 6.2 WARP1. If the level of play that you expect from Matsui is somewhere in between the two seasons, you'd have to get a pitcher like the 2007 A.J. Burnett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, or Andy Pettitte back in a deal. Sure Noah Lowry and Tim Lincecum were both of comparable value to Matsui last seasonby that system, but the Giants are not going to give up Lincecum in this deal and Lowry simply has no place on this team. Where does he fit? Which of our young guys is going to stay in AAA for Lowry?

The BP list of most comparable players features 1996's Paul O'Neill as it's best match. 1999's Larry Walker and Dave Justice are also on the list, as is 1986's Keith Hernandez. Matsui has more value as a DH for us right now than anything we can realistically expect to get back. He is a perfect guy for the situation he's in. In the context of the Yankees offense, he'll drive in 100 and score 100, while hitting .300 on the year. He's a solid and consistent performer that comes at a fairly economical price in 2008. Certainly, he's a better all around player than Damon, who has put up a .265 - .280 EQA for the Yankees and had a 3.5 WARP1 last year. His defense is actually worse than Matsui's in many respects and he is ill suited to the leadoff role that we ask him to play. Jeter should be up there.

If there's a guy that needs to be shipped out to cut salary and bring back a bullpen arm, it's Mike Mussina. In the NL he can still have an effective 2008, and the Phillies would probably love to have him. It just works. What can we get back from Philly, considering they have dealt with us in the past (Abreu/Lidle)? Maybe we can figure out how to get a guy like James Happ from the Phillies for Moose. Throw in a little money to offset the salary, and make a deal.

ESPN =....

2007-12-04T11:00:00.000-08:00

Entirely Sox Propaganda Network

This from Jayson "I Don't Have a Shred of Journalistic Integrity" Stark (emphasis mine):

"While Hank Steinbrenner set deadlines and publicly lusted after Johan Santana, the Red Sox just bided their time and stayed in the game.

And what do you know? As Monday night turned into Tuesday morning at the winter meetings, suddenly it was the Red Sox who loomed as the favorites to pull off a deal for the best pitcher in baseball."

....and this:

"But if the Red Sox wind up sweeping Santana out from under them -- and adding him to a rotation that already includes Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka -- it will be fascinating to see if the Yankees feel the need to respond by reeling in another ace of their own.

'If the Red Sox get Santana," said an executive of one NL team that's grateful to be in the other league, "they might be the best team in the history of the frigging universe.'"

Is that the dumbest collection of sensationalism anyone's ever seen? If the situation was reversed, the Red Sox will have been the crafty and frugal club that is content to ride a team built to win the World Series. They have nothing to prove. And so on. The Yankees would be making a bold, but desperate move. Good thing the Red Sox are the geniuses they are, and know how to play dumb old Hank Steinbrenner by sweeping the rug out from under him and becoming the best team in the history of the frigging universe. Ugh.

Haren Similarity

2007-12-04T09:39:00.000-08:00

So Johan Santana is really out of the mix. In a way, it's really too bad. Look at the top 5 similarity comparisons to Johan Santana at age 28:

1. Tim Hudson
2. Roy Oswalt
3. John Candelaria
4. Juan Pizarro
5. Bob Welch
6. Mike Mussina

I know. That's 6, but Moose was hanging out there and needed inclusion for reference. Overall similarity comparisons have Oswalt as the top overall match. The upside is that he would continue to be the dominant guy that Oswalt has been. Roy Halladay is somewhere on that list as well, as is Jake Peavy. Those are names you like to hear. The John Candelarias, Juan Pizarros, and Bob Welchs of the world are not what you are looking to spend prospects and a billion dollars to acquire. You develop those guys or pass on them in free agency.

Let's look at Danny Haren:

1. Oil Can Boyd
2. Brad Penny
3. Jim Lonborg
4. Joel Pineiro
5. Ben McDonald

The overall comparison isn't worth adding to this list, except to say that Bedard is there. Oil Can Boyd??? Brad Penny??? This is the perfect illustration of why you DO NOT EVER IN YOUR LIFE SPEND BIG ON FREE AGENT PITCHERS UNLESS YOU ARE DAMN SURE THEY ARE FIRST BALLOT HALL OF FAMERS. Ahem.

Trading away any of our top prospects for Haren is a sure fire way of making the Javier Vazquez mistake all over again. Jeff Weaver. Carl Pavano. Haren may be better than those guys, but I think the Big Three each have the potential to be ENORMOUSLY more talented than Haren. At worst, Kennedy should sniff that level. Why cave in on this situation. There has to be some organizational sense. With Pettitte and Wang fronting the rotation and Mussina holding down the back end, you can afford to watch the kids grow and see what they are. If you still want to trade them later because you think their value has peaked and there's something irresistible out there, do it. If not, you have a veritable pitching factory at your disposal in the minors now.

Ugh. Just say no.

No Deal?

2007-12-04T04:06:00.000-08:00

As this has gone on, I've become more and more content with the idea of keeping our Big Three, as RAB calls them. I have been campaigning for Santana here for a fairly long time, but the idea that we have to break the prospect bank before we break the actual bank is silly. Santana is likely to toss a 140 ERA+ for a few more years, so the Red Sox can front their rotation with a couple of ace-caliber pitchers. That still guarantees nothing. It's not like we don't have excellent talent in the Big Three, and it comes cheaper, younger, and with less strings attached. By the time they are hitting their stride and posting ERA+ in the 100-teens to 130s, Betances, Brackman, Horne, Heredia, Sanchez, and others may be on their way up. That's the way we do things.

It's not to say that this drama is over. This kind of thing has a life of its own, and we could still see Hughes pack his bags for Santana. Whatever. At this point, I don't think we should make a deal for Bedard or Haren. If it means one of the Big Three, forget it. What's the point? Kennedy, generally considered the least of the three, is going to be as good as Bedard in a few years (if he's not close already), and Haren is no guarantee. He has inflated value based on his 2007, and Beane loves to operate this way. Sell High. Buy Low. If it ain't Santana, it ain't a Yankee.

Enjoy Lester or Ellsbury or Johnny Pawtucket, Minnesota. You had your chance and now it's over (hopefully).

Fried Twinkies

2007-12-02T06:58:00.000-08:00

The hot stove madness surrounding Santana, Boston, and our beloved Yankees has reached the point of absurd. Speculation abounds. Minute-by-minute "Santana Watch" vigils are being held on the internet with much of the same debate being conducted in comments sections and bulletin board everywhere.

Here's the way it looks.

Yankees offer Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and a mid-level prospect.
Red Sox offer Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, and mid-level prospects.
Dodgers may have made an offer of some kind.
Seattle and a handful of others are interested.

To my mind, unless Boston makes either Buchholz or Ellsbury available, our offer trumps theirs. If the Dodgers want to give away the farm, they can probably acquire him. If the Angels want to reverse their decade long trend of hanging onto their prospects, they can have him. Santana has a no trade, so he does get some say in his destination. This boils down to the Twins playing hard ass with everyone and demanding the moon. They have a young GM trying to show that he's the equal of anyone in the business, and a prime trade chip that comes along once a decade.

I am for acquiring Santana for Hughes and change. I always have been. I think it's a fair deal, and one that helps the Yankees win over the next 4-5 years. We have enough on the farm to absorb this and keep rolling strong. Joba, Kennedy, Horne, Betances, Brackman, Sanchez, Jairo Heredia, Clippard, etc....etc....and the draft keeps on rolling. If only one or two of those guys ends up in our rotation, it still works. Hughes is a symbol. A very high profile and important symbol to Yankee fans. Digging beneath the symbolic value of the player, there is also reason to believe he will be a very good pitcher. How good, how soon are the important questions.

Johnny Damon
Derek Jeter
Bobby Abreu
Alex Rodriguez
Jorge Posada
Hideki Matsui
Robinson Cano

Of that group, only Cano is young. The rest of those players are all set to decline in the near future, and many have already done so precipitously. Not to mention Giambi, who will be a ghost soon. The Yankees are built to win it soon. Fact is, they are still built to win it all multiple times soon, but not beyond three or four years. Johan Santana fits. He will probably give us a 140 ERA+ over that period. Will Phil Hughes? It's not impossible, but nothing is certain.

The sticking point to me is the Twins approach. They are doing everything exactly right from their position. So far, they are masterful. The thing is, we don't need Santana half as much as Jorge Posada said. If they are demanding the moon, and they should, we still have to consider the double jeopardy of prospects and salary. In terms of straight value here, players for players seems okay, but the addition of free agent money makes the deal almost prohibitive. Adding better players in the deal is idiotic and the Yankees should walk away. I'm not scared of Beckett, Santana, and Matsuzaka. That's an unbelievable rotation, but I'm high on our kids and I'm also high on the idea of Kennedy and change for Haren instead of Santana.

If the Twins don't get Buchholz or Ellsbury out of Boston, and we pull out of the thing, they hold onto Santana until the trade deadline. A desperate team will cave in at that point, possibly, although a kind of philosophical collusion could come into play where teams let Santana go to free agency and then blow him away. I expect he'll go into the season with the Twins and things will progress from there. This is all posturing and flexing by the teams involved, especially the Twins. Hughes was a step toward Minnesota in making a fair deal. The rest is excessive.

Final word. Wang, Hughes, Joba, Kennedy, Moose. That rotation is lacking in experience, and people are hemming and hawing about the Yankees lack of guaranteed quality. All the pundits out there are talking doomsday for the Bombers if they don't add a big name veteran. It's admittedly worrisome, but I also think it's overblown. The talent is unquestionable. Hughes will be as good as anyone we had last season. He already showed he is capable of big things. Joba is an ace in the making, if only injury stays away. Kennedy should be a solid #4 in this rotation. Certainly better than any #4 we had all year. Think about it. We made the playoffs with a shitty Clemens, shitty Moose, Igawa, White, Rasner, Karstens, and a host of other pretenders making starts. Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy are a gigantic upgrade. If a veteran guy is what we need to give innings or something, go for a Jon Lieber-type who can fill out the back end and save some young arms on occasion.

I still hope for Santana, but pox on the Twins if they think they can play us for fools in this negotiation. Good luck Boston. You can have him.

More BS Pete

2007-11-29T20:37:00.000-08:00

I'm not in the business of hating on PeteAbe, because generally I like his blog, but there comes a time every so often that I think he's thick and needs calling out. So far, the Santana situation has been a lowlite for the LoHud Yankees blog. The last post I put up will give a clue to my feelings about his commentary, but today features another round:

"Lester is better and has more of a track record than Ian Kennedy and Crisp is a proven Major League player. Melky Cabrera is a better hitter and far cheaper, however. Phil Hughes and Cabrera trumps Lester and Crisp, I think. Then it’s a question of what other prospects to include."

Lester is a better player than Ian Kennedy. Hmmmm.....Drafted out of high school, Lester has a career 3.33 minor league ERA with about a 2.5 to 1 K/BB ratio. In 26 Major League starts he has a 4.68 ERA and about a 1.5 to 1 K/BB. He has a history of cancer. Ian Kennedy is a guy with NCAA experience, a career minor league ERA of 1.87, better than a 3 to 1 K/BB, almost 10 K/9. In his short MLB experience he posted a 1.89 ERA over 19 innings. He had a back problem last season. Certainly the track record with Lester is longer, but it's also much less impressive. I don't believe for one second that Jon Lester is better than Kennedy. At best it's a push. In fact, if I were the Twins I'd ask for Buchholz as a starting point. Lester isn't enough unless Ellsbury is in the mix, and by all accounts he's not.

Melky is a better hitter than Coco Crisp? Crisp is a career 94 OPS+ with a batting line of .280/.329/.409 over 4+ seasons. Melky is a career 90 OPS+, granted in limited action, with a batting line of .275/.340/.388 career. If you want to hypothesize that Melky WILL be a better player than Coco when he matures as a pro, I might buy it, but does anyone believe that his upside is substantially better than Coco Crisp? Plus, Melky is a very good defensive player, but he doesn't sniff Coco Crisp for range factor.

This has nothing to do with the deal itself, but we have to think before our fingers dance around the keyboard with wild guesstimates about what kind of value players have. Lester and Coco Crisp is an insult. Kennedy and Melky is an insult unless you include Horne or Jackson. It's going to take Phil Hughes to get Johan Santana, and shouldn't it? If the Yankees were on the other end, wouldn't they demand Hughes? I would.

BS Pete

2007-11-28T18:48:00.000-08:00

From Pete Abe:

"This pitcher was 3-2 with a 5.70 ERA against teams from the AL East last season (not counting the Yankees).

He was 5-7, 4.04 in the second half of the season, allowing 88 hits (16 of them home runs) over 98 innings. The 33 home runs he allowed for the season were nine more than in any other previous season. Scouts have noticed he appears hesitant to throw his slider.

He has one victory in five career playoff starts."

Pete is talking about Johan Santana, maybe just to be provocative, but it's uncannily stupid. Johan Santana's career ERA+ is 141, which is 14th ALL TIME. Last season he put up a 130 and held batters to a .225 BAA, and only an increase to .236 post-All Star break. The cherry picking of those numbers is insanity. During that same period, Santana had a 5-1 K/BB ratio. That tells the story better to me than the load of horseshit that Pete posted.

Also the comment about his playoff wins is just nonsense. The first 3 of his 5 playoff starts occurred in 2002 and 2003, years in which Santana started 32 games and pitched in 72. He was a part time reliever in both seasons, at 23 and 24 years old. The two starts he's made since show these combined numbers:

20 IP
19 hits
5 walks
20 Ks
3 ER

I don't need to get into it any more than that. Stop shitting on Santana to rile readers and generate traffic Pete. He's one of the greatest pitchers in history, and if he pitched in NY he'd be spoken of in the same breath as the All Time greats. Maybe you don't like the trade options, but don't distort the truth in making your case. It's absurd.

Most Valuable

2007-11-19T12:57:00.000-08:00

It's official our interim-free agent third baseman has been named the 2007 American League MVP in what must be one of the most foregone conclusions in recent sports history. What was in doubt was which clowns would be the latest hack idiots to prevent a runaway locomotive from winning it unanimously. Here you go:

The only two first-place votes that didn't go to Rodriguez were Tom Gage from of The Detroit News and Jim Hawkins of The Oakland Press in Pontiac, Michigan. (jim.hawkins@oakpress.com) Send your warmest F&%^ YOU's to these gentleman for making a mockery of their roles in determining historically significant moments in the sport. No, they didn't affect the outcome, but there is absolutely ZERO rationale for their votes. None. Believe me, if David Ortiz were up for MVP with A-Rod's numbers and Alex had produced Magglio Ordonez' stat line, I'd vote for Ortiz in a flash. If Satan went up against Jeter in the same situation, I would have to cast my vote for fire and brimstone. He would deserve it.

This is unnecessary, but....

Alex Rodriguez (177 OPS+, .339 EqA, 39 Win Shares, 96.6 VORP)
Magglio Ordonez (167 OPS+, .336 EqA, 36 Win Shares, 87.8 VORP)

Clearly Magglio Ordonez had a season for the ages. What he did all year was superhero quality play. It was also clearly 2nd place to the historical season A-Rod put up in New York. Going by counting numbers, A-Rod looks ridiculously lopsided against Magglio's production, but it's still a clear win in the advanced metrics division as you see above. Nowhere did Ordonez outplay Alex in that stat line. This is a case of two local guys with a stick up their rear ends about Alex Rodriguez, or the Yankees, or their own little shitty world and they want their names in the paper as having "taken a stand" for their home town hero. They can probably get Magglio Ordonez to sign a few extra bats for them or something.

At any rate, we have the guy on our club that's won two of the last three AL MVPs and he's gonna do it again next year....and the year after....and the year after....Magglio Ordonez will still go down in history as a footnote.

Historical Perspective

2007-11-15T11:52:00.001-08:00

A thought just shot through my head about the Alex Rodriguez circus.

Fact: A-Rod is a historically important player (Yankee) on the level of Dimaggio, Ruth, and Mantle.

Fact: Every human being, including those players, is plagued by some kind of character "flaw".

Fact: New York is the modern media capital of the universe.

Fact: Baseball is defined as much by its rich tapestry of stories as the results on the field.

I state these premises to illustrate that any of the great players (Yankees) in history, with their personal peccadilloes, would have found themselves in the media circus in exactly the same volume that A-Rod does today had they played in the climate of journalism that permeates the tabloid/ESPN world that is 2007. Dimaggio for his combative and protectionist personality. Ruth for his syphilis, drinking, binge-eating life of excess. Mantle for his alcoholism. These players, by and large, got a break from the good old boys network of players and writers that prevailed in their day. A-Rod is no better or worse a person or player than those Yankees, but is unfortunate enough to live in 2007. Much of the image that A-Rod is burdened to carry with him is of his own creation. He's a phony. I still think, like the Yankees before him, that history may treat him better than present. When it's all said and done, and the day-to-day dig for news is over for him, our view will soften and all we'll remember are the home runs. Hopefully the champagne and championships. Just a thought.

Captain

2007-11-15T09:05:00.000-08:00

Lost in the A-Rod drama, I forgot to respond to the most significant moment in the offseason. Jorge Posada signing on to finish his career with the Yankees is the best news we could have wished for, even if it seemed likely that he'd stay. I've written here before that Posada, in my opinion, is the true Captain of the Yankees...no disrespect to Jeter. He is the fire. He is the leader. He is the engine that drives the team on the field, in the clubhouse, and there is no player I'd rather have associated with the Yankee legacy than Jorge Posada.

New A-Rod Thought

2007-11-14T17:44:00.000-08:00

Considering the Yankees' situation and their statements about not negotiating after the opt out, here's the way the conversation HAS to go down between the team and the player in order to make this thing work:

Team: If you negotiate with any other team after we make you an offer now, it's over forever.

A-Rod: I agree 100%.

Team: If Scott Boras negotiates with another team on your behalf after this conversation, it's finished...forever.

A-Rod: I understand completely.

Team: Okay. In that case, you have 1 hour to accept or decline this deal, or it's finished forever.

A-Rod: I won't need 5 minutes. Where do I sign.

A-tonement?

2007-11-14T14:07:00.000-08:00

Yeah, it seems he might be on his way back. Make no mistake, his image has taken a HUGE beating across the sport as a result of Boras' lead. A-Rod is a grown man, so he can't be expunged from the role he played in upstaging the Series and turning his back on the Yankees. He looks like the fake that he really probably is, but this is the right move for both parties in my book. I was in favor of letting him walk and not reopening negotiations with Alex after the opt out. The Yankees needed to hold their word and not cave in if for no other reason than to show they mean business.

A-Rod coming back, on hands and knees essentially, is the only way that this can happen without the Yankees looking weak. Still, you and I were ready to move on without him and we were ready as fans to stick to our principles. The Yankees can't be played by Boras or anyone else. We made threats and we had to keep to them. This is a slight step backwards in that regard, but we hold the cards. We can still flip him the finger and go after Lowell or whoever else is out there to man the hot corner, good or bad. We can do it, and the fans are behind it. A-Rod coming back without Satan in his corner is huge from a power standpoint. It's also the kind of contrition that will eventually win the fans back for Alex. Make no mistake, there are fences to mend if in fact he does come back. He shit in our backyard with the opt out, and no one will ever forget that. If he does anything like what he did in 2007, all will be forgiven eventually. Opening the Stadium in 2009 with A-Rod is a smart move and it gives us a little more ammo in making other moves as well.

A-Who?

2007-11-05T20:24:00.001-08:00

Stole this picture from Yahoo Sports. It appears as though Cash Money is saying, "A-Who?" Let the wild Cabrera/Tejada speculation begin. I think Cash Money has a Damon Sublett tattoo on his right bicep though....ask him and he might show you....

Graduate Work

2007-11-04T09:19:00.000-08:00

Hey COH fans....if any of you are left.

My grad work has been fairly intense recently and I've all but given up blogging for a little while. I'm trying to find time going forward to keep up with the latest Yankees news and chime in with a few opinions here and there. I'll go with a few quick hits today to keep you busy, and perhaps use this format to stay on top of COH without writing anything too in depth until major news occurs. As my schedule calms down, longer and more in depth work will follow.

1. Torre to LA

It seems our former skipper has landed a sweet 3-year deal to manage in Chavez Ravine and he's bringing Donny Baseball and Larry Bowa along for the ride. Poor Mattingly. He will never, ever, ever, ever get the Dodgers job and it's dubious as to whether he'd ever get any other job either. He's got to stay visible and hope that Joe Girardi will fall on his face, or pull a Buck Showalter and wear out his welcome in the Bronx. I don't see that happening. Torre will have an easier task in Dodger-land staying in the playoff picture. The NL West is garbage and he should have a good enough payroll to stay in contention. The problem is, it's no guarantee with the younger and more talented teams in that division. Those clubs appear to be rising, while the Dodgers have little young talent to speak of and will likely be on the decline. It's possible we see "Clueless Joe" reemerge in LA. He can only fail, really. If he goes to the playoffs, he looks great. If he wins it, he's a genius. If he fails to do anything, he tarnishes his image prior to going into the Hall. I think the latter scenario is most likely and it's not a pretty picture.

2. A-Fraud

I can't even get into the comments that Boras and Alex have been making about their opt out. They are not worthy of consideration as anything but birdcage liner. In my wildest dreams, I wish the Yankees would come out and make a statement that they will never deal with a Boras client again, regardless of his talent or perceived value. That might hurt the club in the short term, and it would almost certainly burn bridges they don't want to burn, but it would also hurt Boras to an extent. It would rob him of one big piece of leverage that he loves to use in any negotiation. It won't happen, but it should. Every fan in the world has had enough of Boras. He shits on the sport more often than he contributes to it (has he ever made a significant contribution to improving the sport?) and his clients end up with sullied reputations when it's all over. Bring in Joe Crede for Damon and wait out Sublett's development.

3. Posada

To me, and I should have trumpeted this at COH for as long as I've been writing, Jorge is the real captain of the Yankees. I love Jeter, but he's not a captain type. Posada is the type of player that makes a great captain in my opinion. He's honorable, hard-working, passionate, a leader (both on the field and in the clubhouse), and he represents the Yankee way as well as anyone I can remember. Frankly, the Jeter personality that people associate with the Yankees is only half the equation. Torre and Jeter were both perfect ambassadors for the team, the organization, and the sport. They are class acts and deserve all the respect we can afford them, but there is also something to wearing your heart on your sleeve and staying in people's face from time to time. Posada is always ready to grab a pitcher in the dugout and lecture him about what he's doing wrong. He visibly cares, and that's the missing ingredient for most Yankee fans who long for Paul O'Neill. Don't long for Paul O'Neill. Posada has been there and he's better than Paul O'Neill. Embrace "Hip-Hip" Jorge. He HAS to be back in 2008 and beyond. We have no one to replace him on the field or in the hearts of the fans. From now on he is the COH Yankees captain...apologies to Jeter.

I'll get back to you all when I have a minute. Chime in at the comments section and let me know what you think. Your comments will help me drive my writing over the next couple of months, so I'm counting on you to support me a bit. See you on the flip. Go Yankees!

A-Gone

2007-10-28T20:03:00.000-07:00

Holy shit. A-Rod opts out according to ESPN. That would appear to be all she wrote for Alex in New York....or at least in the Bronx. Boras is probably gambling on the fact that the Cubs or someone as yet unknown will fork over silly, crazy, stupid money and that the Yankees will cave on their stance to stay out of free agent negotiation with him.

I hope Cashman sticks to his guns and lets him walk. Screw him and screw Boras. They are apparently made for each other. We're truly entering a new era of Yankee baseball folks. I'll be back to write more about this as it happens.

Managing and Coaching

2007-10-13T12:37:00.000-07:00

One of my astute readers, Chris, posted this in the comments section of the last post:

"It's a forgone conclusion that Joe Torre is finished as manager of the New York Yankees.

I completely disagree. I don't think Joe is going anywhere. The Yankees should have let him go after 2003, and they had legitimate chances to drop him after '04, '05, and '06. I doubt they'll do it now. More than likely, he'll get a one year deal at about $4 million."

Very nice analysis, and I must say that I'm of the belief that Torre will be back with the team next year. The buzz is there in the press already, but think about it. David Ortiz and several of the Red Sox players defended him openly. Mariano is willing to walk with Torre up in the air. The young players all came out in support of Joe, as did the veterans. Basically, anyone who is involved in the locker room or the diamond is on Joe's side. Donny Baseball, who might be in line to take over for Joe, even barked his support for Torre to sip his tea from the dugout next season.

After some initial hemming and hawing, I've also come around. I think fresh blood in the dugout and on the field may be just what the doctor ordered for the Yankees, but to be honest it makes little difference whether Joe is the manager or not. As I've said all along, Joe didn't win those 4 titles, and he didn't lose the series we've played since 2000. He's loved by his players and respected by the opposition. He's horrible with the bullpen, but does a fine job with most other aspects of the game (please tell Jeter to never bunt again). If it means that much to the team to have Joe Torre at the helm, he should be at the helm. Don't forget, a lot of the guys who are with us now came to play for Joe. His reputation as a player's manager is justified, and adds value to our free agent pursuits.

Anyway, I still think it makes no difference one way or the other on the field, but it makes a lot of difference in the handling of the media and the clubhouse, where he shines.

On another semi-related note, I see that the O's fired Leo Mazzone. Mazzone's reputation took a bit of a hit in Balitmore, where he couldn't work the same magic he did with Cy Youngers Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz. To that I say, "How can you expect a guy to work miracles with Steve Trachsel, Daniel Cabrera, and Jaret "Ouchie" Wright?" The O's system is a mess, and outside Eric Bedard, who Mazzone did refine nicely, who else is there?

Daniel Cabrera would be the name that hurt Mazz the most. Cabrera is thought to have lights out stuff, but no control. His lack of consistency in the zone makes him a perennial disappointment. I suggest that Mazzone could have done a better job with Cabrera, but it's also fair to believe that Cabrera is beyond saving. A pitching coach is not a miracle worker. They can't take you or me and turn us into Major League prospects. They can occasionally take a talented kid and refine his motion and delivery to the point where he finds a few extra miles per hour and control of a decent breaking ball. The best of the best can turn league average guys into frontline starters from time to time. The success of a pitching coach is more often defined by his ability to tweak already established talent to perform consistently well over the course of an extended period of time. Mazzone does that very well. What he can't do, and what no one can realistically do, is take a pitcher with no "feel" and transform him into an All-Star. Those cases are found once or twice in a generation. (Roy Halladay?)

I think the Yankees should look into paying Mazzone to be the pitching coach, or at the very least the director of organizational pitching instruction, or some such role. Guidry is okay. Fair job so far. Mazzone would be better from our bench, rocking back and forth next to Torre while he sleeps. Failing that, get him in the Yankees family.

Last thing. If A-Rod opts out, Cash should stick to his guns and let him walk. Let the Red Sox or Cubs pay him $35 million a season for 15 years. We have to show the world that the Yankees aren't going to be held hostage by any agent or any player, no matter the talent. It's important to take ourselves out of that negotiation strategy and show that we are in control of our own financial dealings. We aren't a negotiation chip for anyone. I want A-Rod back and I'd be willing to pay him silly money to finish his career in pinstripes, but not if he opts out. Even if he were to sign with the Red Sox.

On Torre

2007-10-09T09:04:00.000-07:00

It's a forgone conclusion that Joe Torre is finished as manager of the New York Yankees. Is it fair? That's really hard to say. There are a number of sides to the issue that are championed by various entities around the team. There is the "Joe Must Go" crowd, led by NoMaas. There is the ambivalent crowd that probably appreciated Joe Torre, but has no real loyalty to him over the team. I think that's most folks actually. Then, there are the people that LOVE Joe Torre, led by his players and folks stuck in 1996-2000.

I consider myself in the middle group actually. It's completely unfair to blame Torre for what's come of this Yankees team since the final out in 2001. He's not a good in game manager, but he was good enough to go along for the annual 100 win push. His moves in the playoffs neither won 4 championships, nor got the team knocked out early the last 7 years. The manager rarely matters that much. Joe was loved by his players, and that says something. Free agents wanted to play for the Yankees as much to play in the Yankee clubhouse as they did for the money. Part of the reason for that love was Torre's loyalty to "his guys" and the even-keel demeanor that kept things professional and calm. That's something in the Bronx Zoo.

By all accounts he handled working for Steinbrenner very well. There were numerous occasions that Joe could have fought with The Boss in the media, but chose to play it low profile. That was smart. The drawback to Torre's personality was the sense that he was often asleep at the wheel, lacked the fire to motivate his players, and generally didn't get it. There's truth in both views. There's also truth to the knock that Joe stubbornly stuck with veterans like Villone, Sturtze, and others. Those guys had no business on the club, but wore the veteran badge of honor to Joe. Loyalty is good. Loyalty can cost you if you don't know how to wield it properly.

In the end, it's time to part company with #6. I don't think he deserves to be vilified or blamed. I don't think he deserves to be canonized either. We should remember him as a class act that presided over one of the most successful eras in Yankee baseball, and lasted well beyond what conventional wisdom would have told us his tenure would be at the start. It's time for new blood. That's true of the manager as much as it's true of the players on the roster. This group has outlasted its run, and we need to change the chemistry. That starts with the manager and ends with some of the guys on the field.

I wonder what will happen with #6. Will it find its place on the wall in Monument Park, retired, or will it go to the next hot young player to walk through the door? I'd put it on the wall as much to remember 1996-2000 as to celebrate Joe, but it probably deserves to go out there with #2, #20, #21, #42, and #51. If not, Joe's name still sits on the leaderboard of Yankee victories as manager. That's a prestigious list that you can never take away. Goodbye Joe. I wish you well in your next job, or in retirement. You deserve our thanks.

Your 2008 Yankees

2007-10-08T20:43:00.000-07:00

C Jorge Posada (He's Ageless and the "Real" Captain of this team.)
1B ???
2B Robinson Cano (The face of the next generation)
SS Derek Jeter (Bad post-season can't erase HOF career)
3B Alex Rodriguez (You need him. He needs you. Pay the man.)
LF Johnny Damon (Keeps things loose and should bounce back healthy)
CF Melky Cabrera (Young. Cheap. Great arm. Decent bat.)
RF ???
DH Jason Giambi (Unless you can trade him, you're stuck with him.)

SP Johan Santana (Trade Wang and Hughes to get him. Just do it.)
SP Andy Pettitte (He can still get it done.)
SP Joba Chamberlain (The Future)
SP Ian Kennedy (Polished and Promising)
SP Mike Mussina (Unless you can trade him, he's your #5 man.)
RP ???
RP ???
RP ???
RP ???
CL Mariano Rivera

You'll notice that I've left 1B, RF, and the entire relief corps up in the air. I also left Matsui off the team. Realistically, most of the relievers will be back, as will Godzilla. You'll probably see Mientkiewicz again and you may even see Abreu after that 9th inning homer against Borowski. Very little may change. I'm simply proposing that we look into moving Matsui, letting Abreu walk, and exploring some options to get younger, faster, and more dynamic. I'd love to dump Giambi and Moose as well, but they are paid a lot and seem rather hard to pawn off on anyone. I'd try a Moose to Philly thing, and I'd try to pay some of Giambi's salary to get him out.

The biggest thing I'd do in the offseason is get Johan Santana. I love Hughes' potential and Wang is a very nice pitcher. You have to give value to get value. Wang is a 120 ERA+ type guy and Hughes looks like he will eventually be in that neighborhood as well. He could be better. It's hard to trade away two young arms that make the minor league money for the forseeable future, but Johan Santana is a once in a blue moon guy. Here are his ERA+ numbers since becoming a full time starter in 2004:

2004 - 182
2005 - 153
2006 - 161
2007 - 133

Even in his down season this year he had a 133 ERA+. He's not 30 until opening day at the new stadium. The last time a Yankee posted an ERA+ of 133 or better for a full season was Mussina's 142 in 2001. The last time we had a pitcher post an ERA+ of 150 or better was Andy Pettitte in 1997. How about the 182 that Santana had in 2004? Anyone close to that? No. There are only 3 Yankees in the franchise history to have higher ERA+ than Santana's 182. Guidry had a 208 in 1978. Spud Chandler had a 197 in 1943. Lefty Gomez had a 191 in 1937. If you loosed the criteria to include Santana's 161 in 2006, you only add an additional six Yankees to the three I mentioned already. None of those seasons came any later than 1964. Go get him unless (1) the Twins won't take Wang and Hughes, or (2) you think Hughes will be able to put up a 150 ERA+ on a number of occasions.

You're going to spend big this offseason on A-Rod, Posada, and Mo. You can let Abreu walk and plan for Giambi's exit in 2009. Face it, we need the best pitcher in the world on our team so we can win one of these bloody series. Santana twice in an ALDS is nasty with the Yankees' offense. He also comes from the left side, so you can own Yankee Stadium. Just do it.

More later when I feel more sane.

Holy Fucking Damon!

2007-10-08T20:25:00.001-07:00

He may just get some value out of his deal yet. What a fucking catch!!!! Go get 'em hitters. This is the last chance.

3 outs left

2007-10-08T20:20:00.001-07:00

Jeter

Abreu

A-Rod

Will any of them get on base? If so, is there a big hit in any of them?

Posada

Matsui

Cano

Is it possible to get this far down the lineup and win this ballgame?

I Hate Jason Giambi

2007-10-08T20:17:00.000-07:00

I won't hide it. I dislike the Giambino intensely. He's so good that Cashman forked over $100 million, but he was on 'roids and whatever else and now he's a shadow of his former self. Yeah, he can still OPS 1.000, but for how many games? How many big moments will he flail away? If any team will take him off our hands next year, I'd pay half his 2008 salary.

Now Mariano?

2007-10-08T20:01:00.000-07:00

Why not start the inning with Mo? There is no tomorrow for the Yankees, and there is no next year for Joe. Puzzling.

Really? Veras?

2007-10-08T19:57:00.000-07:00

Don't you go Mariano for two here to hold it at 3 runs? If we give up even a single run, it could be curtains....Veras. Hmmmm.

11 hits, 3 runs

2007-10-08T19:55:00.001-07:00

Okay, I was emotional. Keep A-Rod. His HR was too little too late, but it was something. It cuts the lead a bit in anticipation of Borowski, but 11 hits and 3 runs is emblematic of the Yankee woes the last two years. LOTS of chances, but NO big hits.

Jeter's a Dog

2007-10-08T19:20:00.000-07:00

Of course he's never going anywhere, but let's face it the biggest dog of this post-season is the Captain. Three HUGE double plays. Woof woof.

Cano's a Keeper

2007-10-08T19:07:00.000-07:00

One of the few bright spots for the Yankees. Gotta love the kid.

Deja Vu

2007-10-08T18:56:00.000-07:00

Does this feel a lot like last season to anyone? It feels like I've watched this before. Maybe this time they'll break up the team like they should have last year.

Goose-ina

2007-10-08T18:18:00.000-07:00

Don't allow him back next season. I know he has a year on his deal, but buy it out. Trade him to the Phillies so he can be home with his kids. Whatever it takes.

Need a Big Hit?

2007-10-08T18:11:00.000-07:00

Don't look for Matsui to come through with it. Trade him for a decent hitting prospect.

Don't Resign Him

2007-10-08T18:08:00.001-07:00

Let A-Rod walk.

Thanks for Nothing Abreu

2007-10-08T17:52:00.000-07:00

Need a big hit? Look elsewhere. Don't resign him.

Wang Garbage

2007-10-08T17:17:00.001-07:00

Wang and Phil Hughes for Johan Santana?

Wang Save the Yankees

2007-10-08T11:37:00.001-07:00

Very interesting game yesterday. Clemens looked every bit his age, as he did much of the year with the Yankees. Good sense probably would have had Hughes making that start anyway, but there are a few factors that sometimes trump good sense. Clemens status and salary are two of those factors. The reverse can be said against Hughes. The facts bear out that Hughes is probably a better pitcher than Rocket right now...October 8th, 2007. It worked out very well. Tonight will be a nail biter.

All the analysts say that Wang's sinker should be in top form on short rest, and there may be some wisdom to that, but I have the jitters about his ability to win a big game for the Yankees right now. I think he's gifted and mentally tough, but I think the jury is still out in this kind of situation. He can make or break his reputation in tonight's game. Paul Byrd, on the other hand, can pull one out of his ass and make Eric Wedge look like a genius. There is no other alternative. If Byrd is awful, and the Yankees end up winning this game, Wedge will look like an idiot, but an idiot that everyone kind of expected to criticize after starting Byrd.

The key to this game will be getting on Byrd early and handing Wang a lead. If that happens, we win. If not, and the reverse is true, we probably lose. I just have a feeling about it.

River Avenue Blues' Joseph P. has a very interesting take on the intentional walk to Matsui last night that set up Cano's big hit. I was sitting next to my wife watching the game and turned to her during the Matsui at bat to criticize Wedge for the move. I explained the strategy behind his decision, but felt that the conventional thinking was not applicable in the context of the Yankee lineup. Matsui was far more likely to hit the ball at someone in that situation, and while you may surrender a run, it is better than pitching to Cano with the bases loaded. Cano (despite my lack of research on his ground ball tendencies) doesn't hit into double plays. He is a line drive gap hitter and is far more likely to get a big hit in that situation than the hobbled Godzilla.

[Editor's Note: I just checked Robbie's GO/AO ratio and see that he had the 8th most ground outs to air outs in the Majors. So much for metrics. My belly full of guts got it right that time. ;)]

Pete Abe over at the LoHud blog has a couple of things that I wanted to comment on. The first is his question about why Don Mattingly gets a bigger ovation than Jeter and A-Rod and company. Pete grew up a Sox fan so it's not surprising that he doesn't understand this. Only a non-Yankee fan would even raise the question. Anyone my age remembers the Yankees when they were good but not great and couldn't get over the hump. One guy carried the torch of Yankee Pride with him during that time. Don Mattingly. That is the tattoo of the 30-something Yankee fan. Mattingly's legacy. Bobby Murcer did it before him. Ask Michael Kay.

The other thing is the excellent discussion on who replaces Clemens on the roster. Pete names names, but in the end goes with Edwar as his choice to replace Rocket over IPK. Kennedy may have never appeared in relief, but his 3-4 innings in a game 5 could be the difference between advancing and going home. Edwar may only get you a few outs, and may also give up a run or two. No thanks.

Go Yankees. We play today. We win today. That's it.

God Save the Yankees

2007-10-07T08:58:00.000-07:00

I happened to think the Yanks are going to win the next 2 days. I don't know what to think about a return to Cleveland, but I feel okay with the idea that they will be making that trip. This is ugly though, no doubt about it.

If they win tonight, I'll be back to post about Game Four. If not, Torre is 100% gone and you can bet there will be MAJOR changes on the roster. That will be the subject if the unthinkable happens.

What's for sure right now is that the Yankees offense does not work in the post-season for whatever reason. We've seen it since the 2004 collapse. The pitching is the real problem though. Pettitte was brilliant, and Joba should have been out of that inning, if the locusts hadn't come down. The thing is, it got to Vizcaino and he blew it. The key to winning in baseball is so simple it's painful. Throw strike one. The Yankees don't do it enough. Wang didn't do it at all in Game One, and the bullpen (outside Joba and Mariano) doesn't do it at all. Sabathia and Carmona threw strikes. They also sport much better ERA+ numbers than any Yankee starter. That's a repeat of all the recent playoff ousters. Opposing teams start pitchers who throw strikes and sport superior ERA+ numbers than the Yankees. I propose that to win next year, we will have to get at least one guy with a 130-140 ERA+ at the front of the rotation and another in the 120's as a #2. Wang can be that #2, but the guy in the 130s-140s isn't on the team yet. (Joba?)

Go Yankees. Win it for Joe, if that's what it takes. Get 'em Rocket. For old times' sake.

Hawaii Winter Baseball

2007-10-04T08:07:00.000-07:00

Not to bump my playoff prediction and Yankee commentary, but I thought I'd turn you on to a piece I wrote with Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus. We split the responsibility for writing an HWB preview, with Kevin focused on the MLB prospects playing in Hawaii and I focused on the Japanese prospects. With the Hawaii season heating up, you'll want to read our article.

Hawaii Winter Baseball republished the story on their own site, and it can be read by clicking here. Double your pleasure with Yankees playoff baseball and a little light reading on the side. Don't forget the prospects in the October madness.....

It Begins

2007-10-03T19:28:00.000-07:00

I'm feeling a real mix of emotions on the night before the Yankees take the field in Cleveland. For the last few days I've fluctuated between confidence and doubt.

I'm confident that the Yankees have what it takes to win the whole thing this season, where they've fallen short every season since 2000. The club had the best record in the sport over the last 3 months or so, and when you think about it the Yankees played 12 games better than the Red Sox over that same period. Had we been tied, or a
game or two back, we would have won the division by 10 games.

On the other hand, I don't feel like we have the kind of dominating pitching that shuts teams down. Wang is superb, but when he's not inducing ground balls he's league average. Fortunately, he usually induces ground balls. More simply, ball is up Wang goes down. Pettitte is good, but he's not the lock down type pitcher in his mid-30's that he was in his late 20's. Clemens is a mystery. He earns his paycheck by throwing up goose eggs in the post-season, so all eyes will be on him. Sabathia and Carmona will have an opportunity to put the Yankees in a huge hole, and both have ERA+ numbers that would make most grown men blush. The question will be, is the Yankees' offense THAT good this season? We saw what is possible last year when we couldn't buy a hit.

My gut tells me, though, that this team is a little different. This team feels different and they aren't swaggering into the playoffs with the sport's best record this season. They clawed and scratched to get in, and I think they learned something along the way. They learned the kind of dedication and focus that it takes to win every night. Every night was important, and every night was a fight. That's playoff mentality, and the Bombers feel they've been locked into that mentality for months.

For the hell of it, I will post a complete playoff prediction here, just for fun. I'm going to pick the Yankees to win it all, (1) because I believe they will, and (2) if I didn't what's the point in being a fan? Here goes:

NL
Phillies vs. Rockies (Phillies in 5)
Cubs vs. D'Backs (Cubs in 3)

Phillies vs. Cubs (Phillies in 7)

AL
Red Sox vs. Angels (Red Sox in 4)
Yankees vs. Indians (Yankees in 5)

Red Sox vs. Yankees (Yankees in 6)

World Series
Yankees vs. Phillies (Yankees in 5)

Wild Style

2007-09-26T20:23:00.000-07:00

Congratulations to the New York Yankees for their 13th consecutive playoff appearance. An amazing comeback from a dismal first half makes this very special. We will be a force in the post season. Believe me....no one wants to see the Yankees right now. Thank you A-Rod for persevering the rude reception in 2006 to show the world why you are the greatest living player and the 2007 AL Most Valuable Player. Go Yankees!!!!!!!!!

Six To Go

2007-09-24T19:31:00.000-07:00

I'm going to keep this short. Sweep TB and sweep Baltimore and we're going to win the division. Six games, six wins, one more Division Title. Boston will lose two. I guarantee it. Anything short of running the table and we're the wild card. Mark it down. Go to work fellas.

Wanted: Al Reyes Head

2007-09-22T19:30:00.000-07:00

So the Yankees win perhaps the ugliest and most painful game I've ever witnessed. The bad pitching spread from the Bronx all the way to Tampa apparently as Al Reyes blew a save that would have put the Yankees back within a game of the Red Sox. That's not an isolated incident either. Look at his last two appearances versus Boston:

September 12th
.1 IP
1 hit (HR)
1 walk
2 ER
1 BLOWN SAVE

September 22nd
1 IP
4 hits (2 doubles, 2 HRs)
1 BB (intentional: Ortiz)
3 ER
BLOWN SAVE

Consider that those two D-Rays wins would have helped the Yankees by putting us in a tie in the loss column with the Red Sox and we should be sending a few "toughs" from Legends Field to Tropicana to make Reyes and offer he can't refuse.

Thanks Bullpen

2007-09-22T15:32:00.000-07:00

Game still not over, but I can't resist posting again. The pen is shit. Farnsworth is the most egregiously awful of all the players on our roster. He's stealing money. If he's on the post-season roster (provided we are in the post-season) I will personally drive to the Stadium and clothesline him. Ugh.

Last night was unfortunate, but it was a very tough game. Great competition. One timely homer decided it. Tonight is 100%, undeniably, inexcusable. We've wrested the lead from Toronto with huge innings time and time again. We're talking 3 and 4 run innings. A-Rod has been magnificent. The pen comes in and throws ball one, ball two, line drive single one, line drive single two, walk three, etc.....

Maddening.

Hughes Unimpressive

2007-09-22T12:55:00.000-07:00

It's the top of the 4th now, and Hughes just gave up a 2-run single to the previously 0-23 Thigpen. He had Thigpen 0-2 and let him foul off 100 pitches before giving in with a weak, loopy curveball.

I've held off on posting this sentiment for a while, but I've almost typed it several times. I'm unimpressed with Phil Hughes. He's young. He's obviously got some gifts. He just doesn't have anything resembling a commanding presence on the mound. Make no mistake, I'm not saying he's bad. I'm not saying he isn't ready or that he doesn't belong, but I'm still unimpressed.

Considering he was named as the top pitching prospect in the sport, he hasn't lived up to his reputation yet. Joba and Ian Kennedy both look much more dominant and comfortable than Hughes, not to mention Yovani Gallardo. Fastball....okay. Curve....inconsistent. Other pitches?

A perfect example of Hughes' unimpressive outings is one at bat in today's game. Adam Lind's ground rule double to left scored the Jays first run. Lind entered the game hitting .230/.273/.381 and Hughes fell behind him 2-0. Both pitches were little dinky-dunky crap that should never come out of his hands, let alone to a bad hitter like Lind. It may be unfair considering the difference in velocity, but Joba doesn't ever throw like that. Strike one might be a 98-100 mph fastball or an 88 mph slider, but they usually are in for strike one. That's an effective way to pitch. Face it, if you throw strike one you get a huge advantage. They either hit it, make an out, or you're in a position to control the remainder of the at bat. If you throw ball one, you have to come back with a strike or risk really getting in trouble. That one pitch can make or break an at bat.

Hughes' key to success is trusting his stuff and challenging hitters with it. He's too good to be playing around on the mound. He's not Mike Mussina at the end of his career. He's not Tom Glavine. Until he decides he's going to do that he'll get Guidry out there with that now familiar stern visage lecturing him mid-inning. He'll get another dozen visits by Posada mid-at bat. Hopefully, he'll come out next season with a new attitude. He has to.

Anticlimactic

2007-09-21T20:56:00.000-07:00

It's not over in the wild card folks. 4 games now. 2.5 behind the Sox. No reason to panic, but that was a completely anticlimactic 14 innings of baseball. After the 9th and after Mo, Joba, and Viz you just KNEW the Bombers were going to win it. Each creeping inning passed, and it became less and less likely. That magic feeling wore off and then there was Zaun. If Frank Thomas, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, or Joe Carter hit the game winner you'd tip your cap and remark at what a great game that was. Greg Zaun. Meh.

Down the Stretch They Come!

2007-09-21T14:33:00.000-07:00

Wang versus Halladay.

Beckett versus Kazmir.

Could you start the final push with a pair of more dramatic matchups? I'll give you my take on both games and perhaps offer a prediction for what we might see in what promises to be the best drama of the year for a one night stand.

First, I will look at the two pitchers going in the other matchup. Career versus Tampa Josh Beckett hasn't been all that good. A small 4 game sample shows the following numbers for Beckett:

4 Games
25.2 IP
28 hits
6 walks
5 HR
30 Ks
4.91 ERA
1.32 WHIP
.280 BAA

This year Beckett is probably going to walk away with the Cy Young though. He's a bit different in 2007, and has only really faced Tampa once. He dominated them to the tune of 6 innings, 9 hits, a walk, 3 runs, and 9 strikeouts. The Red Sox won that game 15-4. They scores 6 in the first, 3 in the second, and 4 in the third. Hardly a tough day at the park for the Boston boys.

Beckett's opponent tonight is Scott Kazmir, who seems to kill Boston. His career numbers against the Beantown Boys are:

16 Games
96.1 IP
76 hits
44 walks
6 HR
109 Ks
2.62 ERA
1.25 WHIP
.218 BAA

This season Kazmir has started 5 games against Boston and has 30.2 innings pitched, 28 hits, 13 walks, 1 home run, 40 Ks, and a 2.64 ERA. It's hard to argue that Kazmir doesn't have Boston's number. What's more the Red Sox come in on a 4 game losing streak in which they've only managed 8 total runs. They were shut out 1-0 by Kazmir on the 10th of the month and are without Manny, and possibly Youkilis, Crisp, and Ortiz. All are ailing in one way or the other. I expect to see two of the three play, but Manny is definitely out. With the troubles the Sox are having the pen also is without Okajima for the next 5 days, and I have a hard time seeing them win if several of the regulars miss the game. My prediction:

Tampa 4, Red Sox 3

On to the Yanks and Jays. Halladay is a flat out monster. That is, when he's healthy. He's up to 210 innings now, but all signs point to a very tough ace heading into town. Halladay has had very little in the way of bumpy roads in recent weeks and months and looks every bit the Cy Young caliber pitcher we all know and hate. Against the Yankees his numbers are outstanding, with a 3.10 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and .247 BAA in his career. He's been good against the Bombers again this season and I expect him to be lights out again.

Wang has been very good lately. He didn't pitch well in his last start in Boston, but really hit his stride after some early August struggles. Unfortunately for the Yankees, Wang's worst outing of the year came in a 15-4 loss to Toronto when he only went 2.2 innings and allowed 9 hits, 2 walks, and 8 runs. Ouch. His career numbers aren't very good against Toronto either, with an ERA approaching 5.00, so I don't see things going our way tonight. Unlike the Red Sox, however, the Yankees are on a goofy roll, winning 12 of 14. Of those two losses, one was lopsided in Boston and the other was an Ian Kennedy masterpiece that unfortunately ended in a tough 2-1 walk off loss thanks to Chris Britton. That means that we were really close to winning 13 out of 14, and in my book that means we're nuclear hot. I still can't see it tonight. My prediction:

Blue Jays 6, Yankees 3

If my predictions hold, we'll stay 1.5 back and the race will continue. I'm just hoping that all the numbers that we've seen are moot with the recent explosion by the Bombers and we'll pull out some whooping sticks against Halladay. If we can do that, look out. See you tomorrow. Go Yanks.

1.5!!!

2007-09-19T19:15:00.000-07:00

Hey Boston, feel the breath on the back of your neck? That's 22 million people in the New York metropolitan area ready to steal your wallet.

Thanks Jonathan Papelbon. You're no Joba.

2.5?!!

2007-09-18T20:09:00.000-07:00

2.5 games back? How did this happen? Are the Bombers just playing games with us, or are they actually about to catch the Red Sox? The wild card seems all but sewed up now with Detroit staring at winning all 10 of their remaining games to even have a shot. I've been saying that the Yankees should only worry about the wild card until they get it, which I think is now. Who knew that we'd be in the division picture at this point, as well?

The Sox are still without Manny and Youkilis and they play at Tampa and home against both Minnesota and Oakland. The Yankees are home for Toronto and away for both Tampa and Baltimore to finish things out. If we can close things out with a win tomorrow and then an 8-2 run to finish the season, the Red Sox would need to finish 7-3 to take the division, thanks to our win in the tie breaker (the season series). Basically, counting on a win tomorrow, we need to beat the Red Sox by 2 games over the final 10. Don't you think that's doable people? I do.

I'm going to say the Sox close things out at 6-4. Here we go....

Beasts of the East

2007-09-13T11:07:00.000-07:00

A lot has happened this season, some of it eye-gougingly frustrating and some of it worthy of celebration. At the All Star Break the Yankees were a dismal 42-43 for the season. That's a winning percentage of .494 and a 162 game pace of 80 wins and 82 losses. Ouch. The last Yankee club that was that bad is found way back in Buck Showalter's first year with the club, 1992. That Yankee team went 76-86 and finished 4th in the division. I'm willing to bet that more than a few blog readers are either too young to remember those days and can't envision what that means in the Bronx.

The fact is, the Yankees are the highest payrolled club in American sports. Finishing out of the playoffs for a team with this kind of budget and the kind of resumes that its players boast is unthinkable. A disaster of incalculable proportions. The beauty of baseball is, the end of the season almost always meets expectations, be they individual statistics, team goals, or concessions sales. These Yankees are finding their late season correction just at the right time and have put up the best record in baseball since the break. Since early July, the Yankees are now 41-19, which is a .683 winning percentage and a 162 game pace for about 111 wins. I think it might be interesting to look at the batting and pitching lines for the key Yankee regulars to identify just how well they have played.

Jorge Posada - .359/.465/.647
Robinson Cano - .341/.400/.559
Derek Jeter - .281/.354/.376
Alex Rodriguez - .320/.441/.675
Hideki Matsui - .312/.375/.525
Melky Cabrera - .308/.355/.460
Bobby Abreu - .321/.389/.578
Johnny Damon - .279/.363/.421

I left out the rotating cast of first basemen because Phillips, Duncan, Giambi, and now Mientkiewicz simply don't have enough of a sample size to be worth examining individually. Collectively, I'd be willing to bet that the numbers are very nice, but I don't have the time or patience to sort them out. One interesting note is that Derek Jeter is by far the worst Yankee regular since the All Star Break. The average and on base percentage are substandard for Jeter, but the lack of power is startling. He's not a power guy by any stretch of the imagination, but .376 slugging is Juan Pierre territory. You know that the sluggish numbers are a product of the Captain playing through injuries for the team, but they are awful nonetheless. The notable improvements on this list are obvious. Cano and Abreu have been smoking hot and have joined Jorge and A-Rod to present a frightening combination of hitters scattered throughout the lineup. There is no safe stretch of innings for opposing pitchers. One of those guys is going to get his turn at bat every single time you take the mound.

The pitching should be interesting as well.

Chien Min Wang - 4.13 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and more hits than IP
Andy Pettitte - 3.14 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, reduced walk totals but more hits than IP
Roger Clemens - 5.06 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and more hits than IP (.299 BAA)
Mike Mussina - 6.22 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, more hits than IP (.359 BAA!!!!!)
Phil Hughes - 5.28 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, fewer hits than IP (.237 BAA)

Clearly, Pettitte and Wang have carried this club from a pitching perspective. Clemens and Mussina have been downright awful. At their prices, one might argue criminally awful. Phil Hughes' numbers have been deceptive. He's pitched very well for the most part. His trouble has been with walks followed by XBHs. The BAA is very nice and he's kept the ball from falling in more often than not. Ian Kennedy seems to have sorted out a spot in the rotation that covers Clemens and Mussina given any injury or ineffective pitching concerns. I wonder if he'll be carried on the post-season roster.

The concern for the Yankees in 2007 looks about the same as the end of 2006. As we appear to creep closer to a playoff spot, the offense is carrying the load, while the pitching is barely adequate most nights. In the playoffs, that mix has exposed us the last few seasons with last season's ALDS standing out above the rest. The names are there. Clemens is prime among those famous surnames. The question now will be, "Can he give us 3 more lights out starts before calling it quits?" Those starts are, of course, big games in the ALDS, ALCS, and WS. Moose is almost a guy to write off as a loss at this point, but I'm encouraged by the prospect of having Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain in the pen for the playoffs to enter at the first sign of trouble.

The pen is a mess really. Who is included on a post-season roster? Bruney? Britton? Igawa? Farnsworth? Villone? Edwar? The last three names on that list would probably have to be penciled in as "yeses" based on our knowledge of Torre. The first three would qualify as "nos", with Chamberlain, Hughes, and possibly Kennedy in the mix. I wonder what you think.

Here's to a fun last couple of weeks. Go Yankees!!!

Out of Synch

2007-09-05T16:42:00.000-07:00

Hey fans of COH.....what's left of you. I've moved back to New York from Japan, at least temporarily, and I'm getting my life set up. At the moment I'm struggling with internet access so the blogging is a bit thin. To bad. Things are just getting interesting and I enjoyed the final game of the Yankees sweep of Boston at the Stadium.

Please don't give up on me. I will be back in a matter of either hours or days, so keep the faith and continue supporting COH as you have been all along. Back in the NYC mix again folks.....

Stay Tuned.

Red Sox 2, Mariners 1, Yankees 0

2007-08-25T00:30:00.000-07:00

I just woke up at 3:00am to see the final innings of the Detroit opener. Sean Henn vomited up the game and we are now dropping slowly out of the race. Seattle is still catchable with a tough schedule and 3 games at the Stadium, but the Yankees are finding ways to lose again and we are in a troubling and precarious position right now. We lost the opener to the Angels after a grueling marathon and now we've duplicated that feat against the Tigers. Talk about demoralizing for fans and players alike.

I'm not sure what's going to make me feel optimistic when I wake up later. I'll figure it out, but the team is certainly making it hard. Clemens may finally have run out of whatever it was that was propelling him into his 50's as an ace. I think it was radioactive NL Central rocks or something.

Sigh.

The Argument for A-Rod

2007-08-23T10:30:00.000-07:00

The Angels series proved to be quite a let down for the Yankees. One of these years we're going to abuse the boys from Anaheim the way we have the Rangers and Indians over the last decade. It will be sweet revenge to turn the tables on them after the grief they've caused us lately. The victory last night was a very good way to salvage the series as the key members of the playoff race collectively dropped their games, allowing us to redeem one of our stumbles out West.

Joba Chamberlain has quickly become my favorite Yankee and I'm amazed to see the control he has of 97, 98, 99, 100 mph stuff and an 85 mph slider that bites hitters off at the knees. For a 21-year old kid he has poise and command beyond his age and it's very encouraging to see that he is seated next to the Rocket in the clubhouse. If his stuff is legit and he has his mechanics under control, I feel as though he may be the better of the two young aces currently on the big league roster. With the kind of power he has, his future just might translate to more long term success than Hughes, although it's too soon to know anything for sure. I'll enjoy watching though.

This post is about Alex Rodriguez. You could post about A-Rod everyday if you really wanted to. I try to stay away from it because A-Rod can turn into a circus of giant tabloid proportions if you overdo it. In this case, I want to make the case for signing him long term. Here goes:

Cashman has warned A-Rod and Boras that the Yankees will be out of the sweepstakes if he decides to opt out. I have to support that philosophy 110%. There's a point where the most powerful sports franchise in the world (not named Real Madrid) should set the terms of its own negotiations. The Yankees have too many resources to be played by the likes of Boras. Anyone can be replaced. The A's have repeatedly proved that. I don't think, however, that either party wants to part company. A-Rod could go down in the pantheon of greats as a Yankee, which holds a certain prestige level that is accompanied by cold hard cash, if that happens to be on his mind. The Yankees like to have the best player on the planet on their team, especially if he is in the conversation for the greatest player of all time when it's said and done. The Bonds' home run record might be reachable if A-Rod stays healthy and productive and he would look good breaking that mark in pinstripes.

The opt out is the only real obstacle to having Rodriguez in our uniform for the rest of his career and I believe that the situation will be dealt with (if it hasn't been already) behind closed doors. A-Rod doesn't opt out and the Yankees, as a billion dollar plus franchise, splash outlandish money on him to stay. $30 a season for 8 years is stupid, but in this case I'd make an exception. The extra $3 million in 2008, 2009, and 2010 will bump his annual up to $30 million. Those years would see the Rangers continue to pay between $6-8 million, and A-Rod would then get a straight $30 million a year from the Bombers for 2011-2015. He will be ridiculously overpaid by the end of the deal, but I think this is an exception worth making. Outside of Albert Pujols there is no better player in the prime of his career. Miguel Cabrera may be another marquee guy that the Yankees could pursue that would get the team more value, but the thing is you aren't sure that he will be available to you. A-Rod is in house and he is having a historic season. He already holds the Yankee record for most home runs by a right handed hitter, when he set the mark with 48 in his 2005 MVP season. The third baseman is destined to shatter that this season as he already has 42 with 6 weeks to play. Rodriguez may end the year with homers in the mid-50's, which would look positively unreal when compared to the greats that have worn the Yankees' uniform over the last 100 years.

Not since Mantle hit 54 in 1961 have the Yankees seen anything like this. Maris' 61 is historical, but Mantle's iconic status makes that number so memorable. A-Rod is an icon and his on the field accomplishments in our uniform vaults him among the greatest players to ever suit up in any city. The Yankee aura adds to that legend and he seems like the kind of player that should carry our banner into the Hall of Fame. The money is less of an issue when you consider the bargains that we have on our hands these days. Wang, Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy could be the staples of our rotation for many many years to come. That at a minor league pricetag. Add in Betances and Brackman and you have to like the financial situation. Add in Cano, Melky, Tabata, and anyone else that might emerge in the next few years and you have the recipe for a low payroll, high value roster. There's money to overpay on Posada, Mo, A-Rod and other aging vets that we hope to hang onto. The big money that we overpay is offset by great value in the minors and in young MLB talent. Eventually, the retirement of those Yankee legends will make way for bigger contracts for the current crop of young studs, and the replacement we develop will keep us in the black. It's a great system that almost seems unfair for a billion dollar franchise.

You may or may not like to give Alex that kind of money, whatever your opinion of the man and the player, but I'm voting yes to the expense. If he can repeat this year's performance a few more times before it's all said and done, and if he can remain consistent enough to approach Bonds, we will all be happy about it in the end, whatever the price. Of course, he will be judged by the Yankees ability to win a Series or two before it's all said and done. Whether that's fair to him or not, I can't say, but I believe and I'll continue to be a fan until there's reason not to be. That would take an opt out, or some move to the Red Sox. Otherwise, high paycheck or not, he's my guy.

Not going well

2007-08-15T11:27:00.000-07:00

It's the end of 4 now and Phil Hughes has been bad. 79 pitches is almost 20 per inning. He has been wasting a ton of pitches and has had questionable control throughout. It's tempting to think of him as an ace already with all the hype, but he's a young rookie with virtually no experience above AA. He'll contribute, and occasionally dominate, but starts like this are sure to rear their ugly heads from time to time.

One thing that I always question is why managers sit their best players against opposing aces. I know that Bedard is a tough lefty, so you think about giving a day off to some of the weary left handed hitters, but the Yankees' lefties are All Stars for a reason. They can hit lefties too. I don't ever think it's a good formula to start Betemit, Phillips, Duncan, and Molina on the same day. It's not fair to Phil Hughes and this late in the season with as much as there is at stake.....questionable.

Come on fellas....come back!

R.I.P. Scooter

2007-08-14T08:33:00.000-07:00

Holy cow! What's a world without Scooter going to be like? Condolences to his family. A Yankee legend and a classy man in all respects has passed. You will be missed as a friend in all our homes. See you on the other side Phil. I hope you're up there either playing short for Heaven's Yankees or calling the game.

Fantastic Four

2007-08-12T16:08:00.001-07:00

It's Clobberin' Time!!!!!!!

Lemonade?

2007-08-10T20:42:00.000-07:00

From the newswire:
"The Padres claimed Igawa off waivers on Friday and have two business days to work out a trade with the Yankees, according to FoxSports.com."

Cash Money has a chance to correct a mistake here. Get it done. San Diego GM Kevin Towers is a good buddy of Cashman. Take anything you can get Cash. Just get it done. The Pads have the 29th ranked farm system out of 30 according to the 2007 pre-season list at Baseball America. Dig into the system to grab a young player of some kind. Nothing great. Just a warm body.

My Favorite Game Ever

2007-08-10T19:00:00.000-07:00

I have to say, I've had the pleasure of watching great Yankee games since the late 1970's when I was a little boy. There are a few games that stand out to me over those years and while I don't really think I can pin down one single favorite, there is a pantheon of games that I swear by as my all time classics. If I ran a YES Network, I'd go with a certain few "Yankee Classics" in my personal rotation.

This game now joins that pantheon. Hughes throws a lot of pitches against a tough, patient lineup and comes out with 6 innings of outstanding work. Joba Chamberlain, in his 2nd ever MLB appearance, strikes out 4 of the 6 Indians he faces on the way to the best 2 innings relief appearance the Yankees have had in years by anyone not named Mariano. How does one put this in perspective?

Hughes is 20. Chamberlain was at A ball to start this season. Brian Cashman and Damon Oppenheimer should crack a few bottles of champagne tonight. Imagine a repeat of this in the post-season. It will happen.

See you tomorrow. Go Yanks!!!

UPDATE: M's Lose. Sox Lose. Yanks tied for Wild Card and only 5 games back in the AL East. As Sinistar says, "Run Cowards!!!"

Just a Hiccup

2007-08-08T20:09:00.001-07:00

Jobarrific

2007-08-07T20:42:00.000-07:00

The debut of Joba Chamberlain was not without its difficulties. 2 innings of work was nice, but 33 pitches was uncharacteristically inefficient, especially considering the 2 walks. Understanding that this was his MLB debut though, I'll take two scoreless and a 9.00 K-rate any day of the week. This is going to be a lot of fun.

Clemens getting ejected was silly. Toronto are sorry-ass whiners. I agree that A-Rod's little deek move in May was unnecessary for a player of his caliber, it's hardly worth all the pent up hostility that has had Blue Jays pitchers hunting for him with baseballs. I like that Clemens hit Rios. We should get the lead and do it again tomorrow. Mind you, we can't afford to have any suspensions at this point, when things have turned around, but there is room for justice. Pick your spots and push back a little.

Melky Cabrera is a superman. How is he doing this? The real question is, how long can he keep it up? Is he capable of translating any portion of the .357/.398/.571 batting line that he's put up since the All Star break? We didn't get a large enough sample size of Melky in the minors to know what he's capable of becoming. There isn't any real precedent to help us. I hope he can produce a .300/.370/.450 line in center field with great defense. That would be a beautiful bargain for the Yankees going forward.

Fun stuff ladies and gents. See you tomorrow. Go Yanks!!

Yankee Doodle Dandy

2007-08-07T06:44:00.000-07:00

So A-Rod gets his 500th home run and the Yankees are now within a half game of the Wild Card. Phil Hughes is back and Joba Chamberlain is apparently on his way to the Show. Cano and Cabrera are raking and adding an element of youthful exuberance to the club that we haven't seen in some time. Mariano is Mariano.

Of course, it's also worth noting that Clemens has been bad, Pettitte is on a downward trend, Mussina has a lot of work to do to salvage a lost season, and Igawa is back at AAA stinking it up. Farnsworth is still with the club although Myers is gone. Giambi is back, but one has to wonder how he will fit into a club that is on a roll. Will he hit .111 for a few weeks and drag us down in any important situations?

The good and the bad of the Bombers at least looks a bit more like the good and the bad of a contending ballclub again. For a very long time the good and the bad of the 2007 Yankees looked a lot like the roller coaster ride that a bad ballclub endures on its way to Fall vacation. The light at the end of the tunnel is there. If the club plays anywhere near the current clip the rest of the way, we will absolutely run away from the pack in the Wild Card and make things very uncomfortable in Boston.

The rest of the way, I'm looking forward to the contributions of our young guys most. It's a pleasure to see this again in 2007 after watching it in 2006. Now, we've forgotten the proposed trade of Melky Cabrera for Mike Gonzalez, who is now out for the year after arm problems. Some of the best trades are the ones never made, to quote an overused cliche. For all the criticism that Cashman has to weather, and in many cases rightly so, he also needs to get a pat on the back for being smart enough to hang onto our young guys. His commitment to building the organization at all levels is his saving grace as a GM. He's done it brilliantly, and we should see it all pay off in 2-3 years when we see our minor leagues fuel our roster in the Bronx.

The later part of this month sees a number of very tough series, so it's best that we continue to take care of business now to build our case for the playoffs. If we can shave 2 more games off the Sox lead before we meet them for a 3 game stand at the end of this month, we could make some real noise.

An Open Letter to Our Young Arms

2007-08-02T03:11:00.001-07:00

Dear Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy,

I just got back to the United States after 3 1/2 years living in Japan. I'll be back in the Bronx soon to do graduate work and I hope you'll be joining me there as well. This season has been at times a less then enjoyable roller coaster for fans of the New York Yankees and more than one blogger has come close to writing off the team for dead. There's a lot of work to be done before we can pencil our names into the playoffs, but there is also more room for optimism on August 2nd than there has been all year long. We are 2 games in back of Cleveland for the Wild Card and the hottest team in baseball exiting the All Star Break. That's where the three of you come in.

The trade deadline passed with very minimal activity for the Yankees. We didn't add a single pitcher at a time of year when most contending ball clubs are looking to shore up the rotation or bolster the pen for the stretch run. Thanks to some very smart drafting and development, the organization is in a position to bring two or three of you fellas into the race. The Red Sox added Eric Gagne and look very strong to close out ballgames. There aren't many teams in recent memory that have been able to boast a threesome like Okajima, Gagne, and Papelbon. The thing is, we don't have to worry about the Red Sox if we can get that Wild Card and go into the playoffs as the hottest club in the sport. In order to make that dream a reality you will be our trade deadline keys.

Mr. Hughes, you will be back for good this weekend. Just stay within yourself and put us in the game. You don't have to do too much. Just remember that your talent rivals any of the young arms in the sport and we've already seen many of those guys contribute over the last 2-3 years. It's your turn. Stay close to Roger Clemens and stretch that hamstring. Your mission is to fine tune yourself to the point where you can be a major force in the playoffs when we give you the ball.

Mr. Chamberlain, it looks like you will be up with the big boys in Toronto. You'll be contributing out of the pen, but fear not. You will be a frontline starter as soon as next year. Your father is worried about your health this season. Working out of the pen is not what you are designed to do. I say, "Don't fret." You're a bull and you aren't alone out there. This isn't a call up to save the pen or come to the rescue. This is a strengthening and dominating strategic move that is designed to shut the door rather than hold the fort. Just do what you do. Throw hard. Throw strikes. Keep it strong and steady and show why you belong. You could get some big innings in a historic stretch run.

Mr. Kennedy, your time may or may not come. Rest assured that 2008 will see you in the mix. This year you need to be ready at any moment to come to the Bigs and pitch a big game. With Hughes and Chamberlain in the Bronx, it's up to you to be the emergency guy. If one of our guys misses a turn, it could be you that gets a game in the hunt for the playoffs. Karstens is capable, but I'd rather have you in a September game against a contender than JK. Be ready. You might win a game or two that turns our season. We believe in you.

Here we are guys. On the verge of a very happy Summer stretch where we could go from double digit deficits in the division and wild card to a playoff berth and maybe a championship. You are our late summer bonanza. Do your best and stick close to the veterans. They know how to do this. See you in the Bronx.

Mike

Joba and Kennedy Up

2007-07-23T22:29:00.000-07:00

Clippard and White down. The big boys of the Yankees farm system are on their way to AAA. This is significant if only that it sends a message that the drafting of high profile college talent allows the team to be aggressive in promoting talent to the higher levels on the fast track to the Bronx. That's always good.

Both Joba and Kennedy dominated A and AA from the start and are ready for the challenge of AAA. My understanding of AAA promotions, however, is that they are really a final tune up for a spot with the Major League club. Only veteran free agents with little MLB hope play at AAA alongside talented prospects with a bead on the Majors in the near future. Erubiel Durazo is a typical AAA player, as are a lot of guys in their late-20s that just can't find a place to stick. Aaron Guiel comes to mind.

I suspect that the September call-ups will feature both of those guys, either in the pen or as spot starters. The rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Clemens, and Hughes is currently backed up by Kei Igawa and a host of guys that haven't really panned out. The two stars moving up are surely the best options available, especially if we need some lights out stoppers out of the pen. Think about Hughes pitching into the 6th and then being relieved by Joba throwing 96-97 for a couple of innings. Sounds good to me.

Hectic Times

2007-07-22T17:59:00.000-07:00

Hello COH readers (that means you mom)....

I'm in the midst of some big changes these days. I'm setting up life between the US and Japan right now and it's a major undertaking. Those who keep living space on both the East and West Coasts of the United States are generally referred to as "bi-coastal" although I'm not sure what nomenclature would be chosen for my situation.

At any rate, I will be headed back to the friendly confines of New York City in early August, keeping a place in Akita City. During the next 2-3 weeks I'm afraid my blogging will be inconsistent, although I should be able to find enough access to both baseball and the internet to update here often. If I end up AWOL for several days without an update, rest assured that I will be back into the full swing of things by the 2nd week of August as a full time blogging maniac again.

Thanks for your patience and for always supporting what I do here. Keep checking back!!

Mike Plugh

Great Eight

2007-07-17T20:17:00.000-07:00

Another little run has helped the Bombers pull within 8 of the Red Sox and 6.5 of the Wild Card. Before we get our hopes up, it's important to remember that we've been here before and then some. The last time we went on a tear, we undid everything with a series of flops, including a rough go of it in Colorado. Still, making up ground following the All Star Break is a very encouraging sign, and it could get interesting before all is said and done. I'm looking forward to seeing the Red Sox again, and I hope we get Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, and/or Hughes in upcoming series.

Tying the game on a balk is a wacky way to go about your business, but the Yanks are due this season for a few of those. We've seen too many plays go against us, that there has to be some serious karma built up about now. Kyle Farnsworth continues to stink up the joint, and continues to have the confidence of his manager, far beyond the understanding or patience of any Yankee fan in the country. Speaking of relief, I found an interesting article about Edwar Ramirez in the NJ Star-Ledger citing the Yankees use of a computer in locating the skinny hurler. Imagine that. Murray Chass must be stewing in his own juices. The article has this series of interesting points about Ramirez:

"What the Yankees never found out until they got Ramirez is that he had taught himself a wicked changeup while he was out of baseball in 2004. He pitched in 19 games for Tampa, going 4-1 with a 1.17 ERA, 47 strikeouts and six walks in 30 2/3 innings.

That was good enough to allow him to open this year with Double-A Trenton. After nine games there, he was 3-0 with a 0.54 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings. At Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Ramirez had a 0.67 ERA over 15 appearances, striking out 47 batters and walking nine in 26 2/3 innings.

With the Yankees needing to call up a starter for Saturday's day-night doubleheader against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, manager Joe Torre needs to see more of Ramirez, 26, before deciding if he should stick around."

Torre's comment at the end there makes me want to smack him. Riddle me this Captain Green Tea, how do we get to see more of Ramirez when you keep his ass planted on the bench in favor of Villone, Myers, and Farnsworth? Maybe you should look at what he's done in the past and trust that Yankee computer just a little bit more. The sticking point that virtually every Yankee fan has with our manager is his idiotic reliance on awful relievers. It's a widely known fact around baseball that Torre is a lousy bullpen manager. How is something this widely known never remedied in some way? I just don't get it.

Last note, Hideki Matsui is turning it on finally and Melky Cabrera has quietly raised his average from .190 on May 1st, to .234 on June 1st, to .259 on July 1st, and now he's sitting at .277 in mid-July. Leche is hitting around .320 since the start of June with a slugging around .450, which is definitely a step in the right direction for him as a young player. The trick will be to take this success and run with it. If he can put together this kind of string to run out the season, he will have won a starting job with the Yankees, which is a tremendous accomplishment for him and a very nice sign of things from the Yankee brass, having stuck with him as a young player who has struggled at the plate and occasionally in the field. Keep watching.

Helluva Job(a)

2007-07-15T02:04:00.000-07:00

First, the best thing that happened in Yankeeland today was Joba Chamberlain's outing at Trenton. The big fella went 7 innings for the Thunder striking out 9 while allowing only 3 hits and a walk. He was unscored on, lowering his ERA to 2.08 on the season. I watched the game via the magic of Comcast's CN8 coverage online. Nice to get a glimpse of our prospects up close and personal. Joba's fastball has nutty velocity, but what makes it effective is his ability to spot it on the outside part of the plate, low. His curveball is low and tight and looks just like the fastball until the last second. Very deceptive and tricky. His pace on the mound is also very good. He gets the ball and throws it. No messing around. One of the sure signs of impending doom, even for a gifted arm, is the kind of mental makeup that makes a young pitcher fidgety on the hill. If the guy twitches, messes with his jersey, paces around, takes a long time to deliver, or makes a lot of faces when things don't go perfectly, I don't want him. Joba is the antithesis of that. He's a rock.

The Yankees pulled out a win against the Devil Rays, weathering Chien Min Wang's shaky first inning. Damon looked good and Abreu continues his latest hot streak. The only real troubling sign today was Torre's use of Farnsworth in the 8th inning. Why Lord? Why? I could bang my head against the wall for a million years trying to figure out why Joe thinks Farnsworth will ever be a solid setup man for Mo.

Just keep winning fellas. That's it. See you tomorrow. Go Yankees.

Post All Star ReLaunch

2007-07-13T23:01:00.000-07:00

Okay. I'm back in the game. There's gonna be a lot to talk about in the second half, including my move back to New York after 3.5 year in Japan. Please keep coming back for more at COH and check in often. I plan to be writing here a lot more going forward.

Some lighting notes to start off today:

Alex Rodriguez' Contract
I think the Yankees are right to play things this way. A-Rod cares a lot about his image. If he stiffs the Yankees now after we offered him in-season negotiations and leaves the most storied franchise in pro sports for big money, he'll forever be seen as a guy who only cares about the dough. The perception, which already saturates many of baseball's markets, will prove ubiquitous and there won't be any way for him to hide that the history of the sport means zilch to him. Personally, I don't care one way or the other what happens in the end. If he walks, it hurts for sure. We'll never replace him at 3B. Period. The thing is, if Oakland can let Giambi and Tejada walk and find their numbers in other combinations of guys for less money, we can do so to. If the Billy Beane way has taught us anything, it's that mega stars aren't a prerequisite to success. The difference here is that we have infinitely more resources to use in replacing A-Rod than the A's and therefore should be able to do so effectively. Smart baseball.

The Trade Deadline
Sell. I don't think the Yankees are going to find a miracle guy like Abreu to propel us to victory this season. We have the horses. They need to play or we die. If anything, I'd just as soon take a hard look at the record come the final week of this month and decide whether we can improve our team for the next 5-10 years by cashing in on this one. It's already been a lost season to this point. That's my thinking anyway. I wish my hometown Knicks had done this when Ewing was on his way out. We just kept inflating our budget with ill-fitting players until we found the mess we're in now. The Yankees can shed some salary, continue to fortify the minors, and come back swinging next year. I'm just crazy enough to send Abreu to the Mets for Lastings Milledge or something. Send along Moose. Whatever.

Melky Cabrera/Robinson Cano
Our two young everyday guys aren't very good this year. Both have picked it up in June and July, with Melky generally outplaying Cano so far. Both guys play tough defensive positions fairly well for the most part. If you had to trade away one of these guys today, which would it be? Cano has showed the ability to be a Major League star. He looked like Donny Baseball and Rod Carew last season. Melky has shown something in flashes, but has never had a tear like Robby.

The Record
If we play .600 ball the rest of the way we get 88 wins. That won't be enough for the wild card or the division. .700 ball would get us 96 wins and I think we'd be in business. That kind of pace seems silly though. Somewhere in between will make it awfully close. In 2003 and 2004, the Yankees went .623 on the year. That was a 101 win pace and the best any Yankees team managed since the 1980 Yankees (not including the 1998 boys, of course). If we match that the rest of the way, we win 90 games. Hmmmmm......

It's Been a Long Time

2007-07-07T03:34:00.000-07:00

I haven't been writing much at COH lately. It's been difficult to figure out what to talk about. The season is in a quagmire and my attention is generally focused on the players in our system more than the players on the field. That must be a sign that things aren't going well. What have I been doing while I've been holed up, incognito? Well, I've been following Yuki Saito and the Japanese Collegiate All Stars as they take on the US National Team in Durham.

I've been readying myself for a one year (or longer) stint back in New York to get my masters. Back in August! I also went to a recent ballgame at the local stadium here in Akita Prefecture.

Every year a couple of teams come up here to the hinterlands for a weekend series. This year was a "home and home" set for the Chunichi Dragons and Kosuke Fukudome and the Yakult Swallows and Norichika Aoki. The Sunday game I attended was a tremendously entertaining see-saw battle that saw a number of lead changes and a pair of mammoth home runs by Tyrone Woods of Chunichi and Alex Ramirez of Yakult. Both Fukudome and Aoki were on base a few times, with Aoki performing best, going 3 for 4.

In the end Yakult prevailed 7-6, but Chunichi had its chance in the top of the 9th inning. I was called down to the railing above the Chunichi dugout by the leaders of the Chunichi cheering section. They handed me a pair of cheering sticks and had me join them in firing up the troops. Tyrone Woods went down looking with runners on base and headed back my way. I shouted to him, "That's alright Woodsie! You put on a helluva show for these people today. Thanks!" He looked up, surprised to hear native English, and gave me a smile and a point before looking forlorn at having struck out once again. Fun stuff.

The game was also my 6-month old boy's first ballgame. When Chunichi scored in the top of the first the crowd roared and applauded and little Hiroto cried. He didn't like all the sudden noise and cried every time something drew a reaction from the stands. Gradually, he adjusted and slept during the waning part of the game.

I've been reading the good fellas over at River Avenue Blues mostly these days. They say just about everything I've wanted to say, so it seemed pointless to write duplicate material. That said, I'll be on top of things as much as possible in the post-All Star Break run. Stay Tuned.

Joba Well Done

2007-07-04T05:22:00.000-07:00

July 3rd vs. Harrisburg

6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 12 K, 5-1 GB/FB

Prospects Safe

2007-06-28T19:15:00.000-07:00

Just as I knew was the case, and contrary to BS hack journalism that seems to be the prevailing trend in the current competitive climate, Brian Cashman isn't trading his prospects, whatever his job status may be. This from ESPN Radio:

"Still, with Steinbrenner's words still ringing in Cashman's head, the GM vowed not to trade any of the Yankees' top prospects, such as starter Phil Hughes.

"I'm not worried about saving my job," Cashman said. "I'm not worried about doing my job. In doing my job, you have to balance both [now and the future.] I don't think it is a tough call. You have to make the right call. I'm not being paid to save my job. I'm being paid to do a job."

Cashman said that Steinbrenner agrees with this stance on not trading prospects.

"At the same time, [Steinbrenner] doesn't want to give up those young guys either," Cashman said. "But that could always change, too.""

The last note is Cashman's ominous footnote that should be attached to any comment concerning The Boss, but really means very little and should be ignored. I'm sure that the tabloids will run some kind of story tomorrow about this and use the last part as the main catch.

"Steinbrenner May Conduct Fire Sale on Yankee Farmhands" (Bastards. Long live blogging!!!)

So Much For Roger

2007-06-27T18:02:00.000-07:00

He must be regretting his decision to come back this season every waking moment. He has to be a part of a sad sack team of declining, overpriced guys on their way to Autumn golf, and he is stinking it up to boot. The money is good at least.

It's emblematic of this entire season that Hughes popped his hamstring and Roger came back to a dying club to contribute more ugliness. It's fitting that Johnny Damon's physical decline has become so swift, yet they won't DL him. Abreu is the guy that Philly loved to hate. Cano regressed to the mean that the experts predicted. Mussina is surlier than Randy Johnson ever was and it doesn't seem like he even cares. It's almost like an extraordinarily delayed reaction, in which the predictions about his adjustment to NY made all those years ago are coming true now. He'd rather be in Pennsylvania coaching Little League than dealing with the Bronx.

I'm going to give up on this team soon. I can feel it. It's already half in my head to give up and start thinking about next year. Once I make that move finally, I'll try to get more positive in my posts and focus on what really needs to happen to pick up the pieces and reshape this franchise. The first order of business will be thinking about a fire sale before the trading deadline. The Yankees always buy at the deadline (and they probably will again this year) but I think they should sell. They should sell Mussina to Philly. They should sell Abreu to the Cubs or the Padres or something. They should sell Damon to the wolves. Giambi? Probably unmovable. Anyway, that's for another day.

It's over.

2007-06-26T19:46:00.000-07:00

That was the death knell of this season. Even if the Yankees miraculously pull out a playoff spot, why bother following this mess anymore. The Yankees are worse than bad, they are frustratingly irrelevant. Who even cares about what's happening with the Yankees in 2007 outside of New York? It's like the Bombers have suddenly become the Milwaukee Brewers and the Milwaukee Brewers have become the Yankees. Ironic isn't it?

The only reason to follow the Yankees the rest of this season is to see how many more ways they can find to lose ballgames. I think there are 6 million ways to die, and the Yankees will try them all out before the season is finished. Ugly.

There will be changes. I just hope that they are either made before anyone pulls the trigger on a desperation trade that hurts us long term. Sit pat. Ride out this hideous season. Let whatever happens, happen. Regroup with a new plan for 2008. Seriously, DO NOT MESS WITH THE FARM.

How bout them Brewers?!

McCarried Away

2007-06-26T18:39:00.000-07:00

Anthony McCarron of the Daily News adds to the annals of hack writing today by drumming up the sale of newspapers via insinuation designed to stir the passions of Yankee fans everywhere. Here's a representative piece of the article for you to chew on:

"Other White Sox players who could be available include free-agent-to-be Mark Buerhle, Paul Konerko and Jose Contreras. Texas first baseman Mark Teixeira's name will come up in trade talk all summer. Milton Bradley is available after being designated for assignment by the A's last week, but a Yanks executive said the team wasn't interested in the hot-headed outfielder.

The Yankees had inquired about Reds first baseman Scott Hatteberg (.286 average, seven homers, 23 RBI) and were told earlier that the Reds didn't want to trade. That could change, however, because Cincinnati is in sixth place and Hatteberg is 37 and unlikely to return.

In trade talks that the Yanks have been involved in, teams are targeting their young pitchers, but the Yankees are reluctant to deal Phil Hughes. According to a report on SI.com, the White Sox and Yanks talked about Buerhle, who would presumably take Kei Igawa's place in the rotation, and Chicago brought up Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy, three prospects the Yankees are high on.

While Yanks GM Brian Cashman considers Williams one of his best friends among fellow GMs, they're not that close."

One of the most ridiculous things that McCarron does here is give his readers the impression that the Yankees have been in discussions with Chicago about bringing in Buerhle, Konerko, or Contreras with someone among Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy going back in return. He never draws the line directly, but you know what he's up to. Cashman has been boneheaded on a few occasions in the past. He is far from being that short sighted or stupid. Who among those three players is worth the money they are being paid or the type of prospects that are being bandied about in this conversation? Hughes is so far and away better than those three players combined, is paid nothing, and will be back sometime in August. Oh yeah, he's still just learning to shave and drink beer. Joba is currently the best pitching prospect in the organization and not all that far from the Bronx. He has university experience, is also cheap and young, and will eventually be better than both the pitchers named in the deal. Kennedy is also advanced and rising on the organizational charts. Everything I said about Hughes and Joba is true of Kennedy as well.

If you are going to trade Hughes, you'd better be getting Johan Santana in return. If you are trading Chamberlain it had better be something like Sabathia or Zambrano coming back. Kennedy is worth more to me in two years than Buehrle or Contreras in 2007, and 1st base is the least of our worries. If we don't have enough on this roster to make the playoffs, and it means the difference between keeping our treasured young arms, I say play golf Derek Jeter. Hang out on the beach Alex Rodriguez. Cashman is not that stupid.

Pavano

2007-06-25T04:13:00.001-07:00

Not to usurp the cathartic post I wrote earlier today, but you really should see this as a Yankee fan. ESPN e-ticket story on Pavano....